This is Part 1 of a series looking at wide-body aircraft demand.
April 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We’re in a five-year slump for wide-body aircraft orders, say veteran executives of a new leasing company.
By Scott Hamilton
This means airlines will hold onto Airbus A330s and Boeing 767s/777s longer than planned, deferring—but not canceling—orders for Airbus A350s and Boeing 787s.
Orders for Boeing 777Xs and even Airbus A380s will resume eventually—but not any time soon.
Ray Sisson, the chairman and CEO of the new lessor AVi8 Air Capital, and Ed Wegel, president of the company, told LNC in an interview last week that there is a solid market for the proposed Boeing 7M7 (the Middle of the Market airplane).
Sisson, who was CEO of the lessor AWAS until a large portion of its portfolio was sold, also sees a robust market eventually for the 777X.
A much more modest market is seen for the A380.
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7M7 is key to Boeing’s future
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Introduction
An enthusiast’s concept of the Boeing 797. Image via Google.
April 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing faces growing challenges this year as airplane sales slow, production of the 777 Classic declines, its new Global Services unit prepares to formally launch and a decision whether to authorize a sales offering for the New Midrange Airplane looms.
We’ve spent a lot of time covering slowing sales and declining 777 production. Tomorrow, we’ll have a special report on the ambitious Global Services strategy.
We’ve also spent a lot of time on the Boeing NMA. LNC’s Bjorn Fehrm last week presented number three in a paywall series on the NMA, looking at it from a technical viewpoint. We’ll take a look at it from a strategic point of view today.
Summary
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6 Comments
Posted on April 24, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Leeham News and Comment, Middle of the Market, MOM, Premium
737-10, 737-9, 747-8, 787, 787-8, 787-9, 7M7, A321LR, A321NEO, A330-200, A330-800, A380, A400M, Airbus, Boeing
Pontifications: Five-year slump in wide-body demand seen, says lessor
This is Part 1 of a series looking at wide-body aircraft demand.
April 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We’re in a five-year slump for wide-body aircraft orders, say veteran executives of a new leasing company.
By Scott Hamilton
This means airlines will hold onto Airbus A330s and Boeing 767s/777s longer than planned, deferring—but not canceling—orders for Airbus A350s and Boeing 787s.
Orders for Boeing 777Xs and even Airbus A380s will resume eventually—but not any time soon.
Ray Sisson, the chairman and CEO of the new lessor AVi8 Air Capital, and Ed Wegel, president of the company, told LNC in an interview last week that there is a solid market for the proposed Boeing 7M7 (the Middle of the Market airplane).
Sisson, who was CEO of the lessor AWAS until a large portion of its portfolio was sold, also sees a robust market eventually for the 777X.
A much more modest market is seen for the A380.
Read more
37 Comments
Posted on April 24, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing
737-8, 767, 777 Classic, 777X, 787, A321NEO, A330, A330neo, A350, A380, Airbus, Avi8, Boeing, Ed Wegel, Ray Sisson
AVi8 to be ‘clearing house’ for lessors, OEMs, airlines
April 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: AVi8 Air Capital is a new lessor with a different business model.
Instead of the standard operating lease model, Avi8’s mission is to buy groups of airplanes from other lessors and later sell them. AVi8 intends to be a clearing house for other lessors.
“The difference between AVi8 and other leasing companies is as follows,” says Sisson. “When I was running AWAS, I was told by a number of investment banks that you get economies of scale by getting between $12bn and $18bn in assets. You can be bigger than that, but when you get between $12bn and $18bn, you capture real economies of scale – you’re buying enough new aircraft from OEMs, financing aircraft in bulk in capital markets/bank syndicates/Export Credit agencies, and leasing enough aircraft to airlines globally.”
This, among other things, was important to the rating agencies, Sisson said.
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6 Comments
Posted on April 24, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Lessors
Airbus, airlines, Avi8, AWAS, Boeing, Lessors, Ray Sisson
Bjorn’s Corner: Keeping airliners operational
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 20, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We expect our flights to depart on time and with 100% safety. At the same time, the aircraft is used up to 14 hours and flies up to 5-6 missions a day.
This means 1,800 flights a year. As airliners will last 25 years, we talk about 45,000 flights with 99.7% dispatch reliability and 100% safety.
It’s clear the aircraft must be cared for in a special way. We’ll discover how.
Figure 1. The first modern maintenance program was formed around the Boeing 747, here at the roll out in 1968. Source: Wikipedia.
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11 Comments
Posted on April 21, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airlines, Bjorn's Corner, Boeing
747, Boeing, MRO, Pratt & Whitney
Could an NMA be made good enough? Part 5
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: After defining the fuselage and wings, it’s now time for the engines. We go through the sizing criteria for engines for airliners and find the size of engine that is needed for the NMA.
The NMA will need engines which are larger than the single aisle engines for Airbus’ A320neo and Boeing’s 737 MAX. But they will be smaller than the next size up for modern engines, the GEnx-2B for Boeing’s 747-8.
Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United
This means the NMA will need new engines, at least 50% larger than the present engines designed for A320neo and 737 MAX.
Summary:
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Posted on April 20, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Boeing, CFM, GE Aviation, Middle of the Market, MOM, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce
737 MAX, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, CFM, CFM LEAP-1A, GTF, MOM, NMA, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Ultrafan
Aeroflot, the route to a modern airline, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 19, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In our second article about Aeroflot, the Soviet Union flag carrier that transformed to a modern airline, we will cover the period from the fall of the Soviet Union until 2010.
This was the difficult period for all participants. The old structures no longer existed and were replaced with… nothing, followed by uncertainty and a long struggle to get back to normal.
Figure 1. IL-96-300, a Soviet long range aircraft which stayed in the Aeroflot fleet until 2014. Source: Aeroflot.
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1 Comment
Posted on April 19, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airlines, Antonov, Boeing, CFM, Irkut, Sukhoi, United Aircraft, United Engine Corp., YAK
737, 767, 777, A320, A330, A350, Aeroflot, Airbus, Boeing, Ilyushin, Tupolev, Yakolev
Asian airline shift portends big ramifications
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Introduction
April 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: A shift is underway among Asian airlines that could have ramifications for the airframe and engine manufacturers and, by extension, their suppliers.
It doesn’t appear, however, that aerospace analysts in the US and Europe realize this shift. At least none has written about it that we’ve seen among the research notes we receive.
Summary
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1 Comment
Posted on April 17, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
AirAsia, Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, CFM, Lessors, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce
AirAsia, AirAsiaX, Airbus, airines, Boeing, CebuPacific, CFM, Goldman Sachs, Jeju Air, LionAir, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
Pontifications: Lessor cites cool reception to MAX 10
By Scott Hamilton
April 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Buckingham Research Group last week issued back-to-back notes about Boeing. One was a recap of an investors call with Steve Rimmer, CEO of Altavair Airfinance (nee Guggenheim Aviation partners). The other was BRG’s earnings preview, the first off the mark for Boeing’s earnings call on April 26.
I’ll include a summary of BRG’s earnings preview in a subsequent post when other analysts issue their previews.
BRG’s Rimmer note is lengthy and covers industry issues beyond Boeing. Here are a couple of the Boeing-focused points:
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73 Comments
Posted on April 17, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, CFM, Middle of the Market, Pontifications, Pratt & Whitney
737-10, 797, 7M7, A320NEO, Airbus, Altavair, Boeing, Buckingham Research Group, CFM, GTF, LEAP-1A, Middle of the Market, MOM, NMA, Pratt & Whitney, Steve Rimmer
Airbus won’t hit 1:1 book:bill this year
Credit Suisse issued a note late yesterday on a variety of topics that included this:
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63 Comments
Posted on April 14, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing
Airbus, Boeing, Credit Suisse
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines, sum up
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 14, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We’ve been talking engines on Fridays since October 2016. The Corners covered several areas, from technologies to operations.
And we could go on and dig deeper. But we will move on.
Before we go, we sum up what we have learned in the 24 Corners around airliner Turbofans.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a three-shaft wide-body turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
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15 Comments
Posted on April 14, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
Bjorn's Corner, CFM, China, Comac, GE Aviation, International Aero Engines, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, United Aircraft, United Engine Corp.
CFM, Comac, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, UAC, United Aircraft, United Aircraft Engines
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