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Introduction
Aug. 7, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Amid talk that Middle Eastern airlines, which are the largest group of users for wide-body aircraft, may defer Airbus and Boeing airplanes, there are conflicting signs that the bleak view of the sector isn’t as weak as perceived.
Just last week, two big lessors—Air Lease Corp and AerCap–of widebody airplanes said they are confident in the sector.
Few orders have been received for the Boeing 777-8 ultra-long range airplane. Sales for its larger sibling, the 777-9, have stalled. Along with the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747-8, demand is seen as limited.
AerCap ordered 30 Boeing 787s at the Paris Air Show. ALC has a significant order of Airbus A330neos.
And, the chairman of Emirates Airline said in an interview with the region’s The National newspaper that despite the current challenges at the carrier, it expects to announce an order before the end of the year for either the 787 or the Airbus A350—and possibly the Airbus A380.
Quantities on the former weren’t discussed. Airbus is pitching 20 A380s, according to accounts.
Still, there are a large number of Boeing 777s and Airbus A330s coming off lease in the next few years that could slow orders if these aircraft are offered on the secondary market with low enough lease rates.
Summary
- Air Lease Corp.’s wide-body aircraft are placed. A330neo orders late due to engine delays.
- AerCap sees strong wide-body market, reaffirmed with 787-9 order.
- More than 100 A330ceos and 777 Classics potentially entering secondary market soon.
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Boeing’s tactical option for MOM sector
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Aug. 14, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s not a done deal yet—the business for the so-called Boeing 797 remains a challenge. But the consensus is that Boeing will launch the program next year, for an entry-into-service around 2025.
Boeing 797 concept. Source: Boeing.
Yet there are airlines that say they don’t want to wait that long for a new airplane.
What are their choices?
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7 Comments
Posted on August 14, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
air force tanker, Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Delta Air Lines, GE Aviation, Leasing, Leeham News and Comment, Middle of the Market, MOM, Pratt & Whitney, United Airlines, US Airways
737-10, 737-9, 757, 767-200ER, 767-300ER, 777, 777-300ER, 797, A330-200, A330-800, Airbus, airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Japan Air Lines, Middle of the Market, MOM, New Midrange Aircraft, NMA, United Airlines
Pontifications: Avolon sees strong sales for Boeing 737-10
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 14, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Avolon, one of the world’s largest aircraft lessors following the acquisition of the CIT Aerospace portfolio, believes Boeing will see 2,000 of the 737-10—doubling the internal figure Boeing used to launch the program.
In a new white paper, which Avolon periodically issues, the lessor “projects that the MAX 10 will account for approximately 20% of all 737 MAX family deliveries, which would equate to around 2,000 aircraft. This compares to the A321neo, which is forecast to account for 40% of the A320neo family, with over 4,000 deliveries,” writes Steve Mason, Avolon’s SVP of Strategy.
Mason joined Avolon from CIT acquisition, where he held a similar position and likewise issued periodic white papers.
“The value proposition of the MAX 9 has been impacted by the launch of the MAX 10. It is unclear what role remains for the aircraft, but it is likely to have a limited future,” Mason writes.
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19 Comments
Posted on August 14, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Leasing, Lessors, Pontifications, United Airlines
737-10, 737-7, 737-8, 737-8-200, 737-9, A319neo, A320NEO, A321NEO, Airbus, Avolon, Boeing, CIT Aerospace, Steve Mason
Bjorn’s Corner: Electric aircraft, Part 7
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 11, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In this Corner, we will design the hybrid propulsion system for our 50-seat regional turboprop. We could see in previous Corners that we can’t use batteries as a backup for our gas turbine core and main generator.
The battery gets too heavy as the specific power weight of a battery is simply too low. We will now design a hybrid power chain with a different redundancy concept.
Figure 1. ATR 42-600 serves as a template for our 50-seat regional turboprop. Source: ATR.
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17 Comments
Posted on August 11, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
ATR, Bjorn's Corner
APU, ATR, ATR42, Electric aircraft
Can Airbus improve the A321neo further? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 10, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Last week we started the look into how the Airbus A321neo could be incrementally improved. To understand what can improve an aircraft, ones need to understand its limitations.
The A321neo is mainly limited by its wing, which is highly loaded. But there are ways around this limitation other than developing a new wing, an exercise which would require time, money and a new certification program.
Summary:
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2 Comments
Posted on August 10, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, CFM, Pratt & Whitney, Premium
A321LR, A321NEO, Airbus, CFM, Pratt & Whitney
CSeries starts operations from London City Airport
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 09, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier (BBD) CSeries has done its first revenue flight to London City Airport. It was a scheduled Swiss International Airlines (SWISS) flight from Zurich that landed on the airport yesterday.
With the CSeries operational from London City, the route network that can be flown from the downtown airport changes significantly. Europe out to Moscow or Las Palmas is accessible and an all business class CS100 could fly direct to New York.
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54 Comments
Posted on August 9, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airlines, Bombardier, CSeries, Pratt & Whitney
Bombardier, CS100, CSeries, London City Airport, Pratt & Whitney
Delta asks Commerce to redefine scope of Boeing-Bombardier case
Bombardier CS100.
Aug. 8, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Delta Air Lines asked the US Department of Commerce to redefine the scope of the Boeing complaint of Bombardier price dumping in its CS100 order with the carrier, filings at DOC show.
Delta asked the DOC to redefine the aircraft definition from 100-150 seat to 125-150 seats, arguing that Boeing doesn’t make in airplane in the 100-125 seat size and therefore isn’t harmed by competition in the sale of the 110-seat CS100 that Delta ordered.
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66 Comments
Posted on August 8, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, Delta Air Lines, Embraer
737-7, 737-700, Airbus, airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CS100, CS300, Delta Air Lines, E-190, Embraer, US Department of Commerce, US International Trade Commission
Key lessors see strong wide-body market despite worries
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Introduction
Aug. 7, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Amid talk that Middle Eastern airlines, which are the largest group of users for wide-body aircraft, may defer Airbus and Boeing airplanes, there are conflicting signs that the bleak view of the sector isn’t as weak as perceived.
Just last week, two big lessors—Air Lease Corp and AerCap–of widebody airplanes said they are confident in the sector.
Few orders have been received for the Boeing 777-8 ultra-long range airplane. Sales for its larger sibling, the 777-9, have stalled. Along with the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747-8, demand is seen as limited.
AerCap ordered 30 Boeing 787s at the Paris Air Show. ALC has a significant order of Airbus A330neos.
And, the chairman of Emirates Airline said in an interview with the region’s The National newspaper that despite the current challenges at the carrier, it expects to announce an order before the end of the year for either the 787 or the Airbus A350—and possibly the Airbus A380.
Quantities on the former weren’t discussed. Airbus is pitching 20 A380s, according to accounts.
Still, there are a large number of Boeing 777s and Airbus A330s coming off lease in the next few years that could slow orders if these aircraft are offered on the secondary market with low enough lease rates.
Summary
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Leave a Comment
Posted on August 7, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Lessors, Paris Air Show, Premium
747-8I, 777 Classic, 777-9, A330, A350, A380, Aengus Kelly, AerCap, Air Lease Corp., Airbus, airlines, Boeing, John Plueger, Lessors, Steven Udvar-Hazy
Pontifications: Context is everything
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 7, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The quote appeared on Twitter, citing the chairman of Air Lease Corp, Steven Udvar-Hazy:
“I would simply but strongly encourage the OEMs to carefully review their production rate aspirations closely and realistically.”
Hazy, often (but erroneously) called the “Godfather of leasing,” is a voice to be reckoned with. He is enormously influential with Airbus, Boeing, lessors and the industry. He’s been a launch customer of several aircraft new aircraft models and, if he’s not the Godfather of leasing (this title really belongs to the late George Batchelor), Hazy raised aircraft leasing to a fine art.
So, when the quote appeared on Twitter, I sat up in my chair.
Was Hazy suggesting Airbus and Boeing will be producing too many airplanes, creating a supply-demand imbalance?
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40 Comments
Posted on August 7, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, CFM, Lessors, Pontifications, Pratt & Whitney
737 MAX, A320NEO, A330neo, A350, Air Lease Corp., Airbus, Boeing, CFM, Lessors, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Steven Udvar-Hazy
Bjorn’s Corner: Electric aircraft, Part 6
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 03, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In our search for an electric regional aircraft configuration, we found that a jet aircraft requires too high power levels. The higher speeds of a jet aircraft take the power levels beyond what we can handle with an electric hybrid propulsion system.
Our ambition is to transport 50 passengers on a regional network. For networks which have sectors around 200-300nm, the turboprop is the preferred regional aircraft. We will now re-direct our hybrid regional aircraft project to this market segment.
Figure 1. An ATR 42-600 48 seat regional turboprop. Source: Wikipedia.
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10 Comments
Posted on August 4, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
ATR, Bjorn's Corner, Pratt & Whitney
ATR, Electric aircraft, Pratt & Whitney
Can Airbus improve the A321neo?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 03, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Airbus A321 has been in its own single aisle league for capacity and with the A321LR for capacity and range.
With Boeing’s launch of the 737 MAX 10, the unique position has taken a hit. With A321 occupying 40% of Airbus single aisle sales, Airbus is examining how to re-open the gap.
There is much talk about an A322: an aircraft with new wing, engines and so forth. This is a major undertaking and will need new engines for its realization. Couldn’t Airbus improve the A321 as it is?
We look into what short term improvements can be done to the A321, and what these would give.
Summary
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2 Comments
Posted on August 3, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, CFM, Pratt & Whitney, Premium
737 MAX, A320NEO, A321NEO, Airbus, Boeing, CFM, Pratt & Whitney
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