Dec. 31, 2014, just under the wire: 2014 is over and there was some news unrelated to the loss of AirAsia flight 8501:
Bombardier: The company received a firm order for 24 CRJ900s from an unidentified customer (we believe it is a US regional airline). The National Post of Canada also has this look at how 2015 will be a “pivotal” year for the CSeries. BBD also announced an order from mega-lessor GECAS for five Q400s and options for 10 more.
ARJ-21 certified: The Chinese government certified the COMAC ARJ-21, the 70 seat regional jet that looks like the old Douglas DC-9-10. The airplane is now supposed to go into service in April or May, only eight years late.
Boeing declares victory: The year was really over yet but Boeing declared victory over Airbus in this Dec. 29 story in The Seattle Times. Yes, Boeing will deliver more airplanes than Airbus in 2014, but will it truly end with more orders? Airbus won’t reveal its full 2014 performance until its annual press conference Jan. 13, and it’s famous for announcing a whole bunch of orders to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat. So we’ll wait and see then who truly has the bragging rights for the full year.
Airbus and Boeing: For all of our extremely partisan Airbus and Boeing readers, choke on this one: Airbus and Boeing have teamed up to bid on a defense contract, reports Aviation Week.
Real-time tracking: It’s possible and it’s being done. See this Washington Post article.
Posted on December 31, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Dec. 30, 2014: With the apparent discovery of the main wreckage of AirAsia Flt 8501 in about 100 ft of water, recovery of the airplane and its black boxes should be a relatively straight-forward operation.
Our previous posts have outlined general areas of inquiry. With this post, we drill down into some of the flight and airplane questions that will be part of the inquiry. We talked with an Airbus A320 captain for a major US airline in forming these issues. This captain has been flying for US carriers for 30 years and is rated on Boeing 737s, the McDonnell Douglas DC-10 and the A320.
Key points:
Posted on December 30, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Dec. 30, 2014: Debris and bodies have been found and confirmed coming from AirAsia Flight QZ8501, bringing closure for the families and friends of the flight that disappeared on Sunday local time.
Reports of shadows that could be a wing or fuselage in water about 30 meters deep have also been seen.
Some debris and bodies have already been recovered.
If the main body of the wreckage has also been spotted, recovery of the all-important flight data and cockpit voice recorders could come rather quickly.
Posted on December 30, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Dec. 30, 2014: This was a highly active news year. Airbus launched the A330neo and A321neoLR. Boeing firmed up more than 200 orders for the 777X. Emirates canceled 70 A350 orders, a record cancellation when no customer collapse was involved. Boeing and its principal union, the IAM 751, faced off in a bitter contract vote. And on the truly dark side, Malaysian Airlines lost MH370 and MH17.
The Top 10 stories read on Leeham News included all of the above but MH17. Others made the Top 10 list. Here it is:
Posted on December 30, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Dec. 29, 2014: Now’s your chance to vote on what you think are the world’s dud airliners. Here are the parameters:
You may vote for more than one airplane.
Posted on December 29, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Douglas Aircraft Co, McDonnell Douglas
717, 737-600, 747, 757-300, 767-400, Airbus, Boeing, Bristol, Britannia, Canadair, Comet, Convair, CV-880, CV-990, Dassualt, DC-4 M2, de Havilland, Douglas Aircraft Co, Electra, Handley Page, IL-96, Ilyushin, Lockheed, Martin 202, McDonnell Douglas, Mercure, Nord, Nord 262, Stratocuiser, Trident, Tupolev, Vanguard, VC-10, Vickers
Radar tracking: This story from the Financial Post in Canada explains why radar tracking of airliners is insufficient and a better way is necessary. This also explains why better, more accurate coverage can save the airline industry gobs of money.
Gosh–instead of making a safety argument and lives saved, maybe focusing on money saved will spur some action….
787 and batteries: Aspire Aviation takes a deep look at the 787 battery report from Japan’s investigative agency
777 Classic Sales: Boeing ends 2014 with around 60 orders for the 777 Classic, at the top end of the 40-60 annual sales officials say is needed to maintain production rates at the current level of 100/yr. Dan Catchpole of The Everett Herald has an interview with Randy Tinseth, VP-Marketing of Boeing, who discusses the prospects of maintaining this pace until 2020, when the successor 777X enters service.
Posted on December 29, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
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Introduction
Dec. 28, 2014: Two challenges to the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing in the 150-220 seat single-aisle sector move forward in development in 2015, but neither is in a position to be a threat for the balance of this decade, nor even in the next.
Both challenges, the COMAC C919 from China, and the Irkut MC-21 from Russia, will for various reasons fall short of the Airbus A320/321 and Boeing 737-8/9 and plans to design the next generation new single-aisle airplane.
Summary
Air France 447.
Malaysia Airlines MH370.
AirAsia QZ8501.
Dec. 28, 2014: Each flight disappeared over water. Search parties had a general idea where to look for AF447, but it still took five days before wreckage was spotted in the water and two years before the flight recorder and cockpit voice recorder were recovered.
Searchers think they know generally–very generally–where to look for MH370, but no wreckage at all has been spotted.
And now there’s AirAsia QZ8501. Searchers have a general idea where to look, but not precisely.
Aviation regulators are infamous for their “tombstone” mentality–not requiring safety changes until people die.
How many people have to die before regulators finally mandate real-time flight tracking?
ICAO, the international organization that overseas safety and regulatory issues, has been dithering since MH370 about mandating real-time flight tracking. But the issue has been around since the 2009 Air France crash. There has been no action.
AirAsia demonstrates that real-time tracking is not just trans-ocean flights that need tracking. MH370 also showed this–the flight was a relatively short, intra-Asia flight with an even shorter over-water portion when contact was lost.
It’s time for ICAO to make a decision, and if it doesn’t then individual country regulators need to step up and require real-time tracking. This won’t save the lives lost but recovering wreckage and the black boxes in a timely manner could lead to safety and operational changes that will save lives in the future.
We don’t need more tombstones.
Posted on December 28, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Dec. 28, 2014: Boeing launched the first flight of its KC-46A tanker program on Sunday.
The flight, with a 767-2C and not a tanker-configured KC-46A, was with what’s known as EMD 1. EMD stands for Engineering, Manufacturing and Development. EMD 1 is the first of four 767-2C aircraft that will make up the flight test fleet.
Posted on December 28, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Dec. 28, 2014: Weather will be a prime area of focus by investigators of the disappearance of AirAsia flight QZ8501. The flight, an Airbus A320-200 manufactured in 2008 and powered by CFM 56 engines, deviated from its intended flight path due to weather conditions, according to reports from officials in Indonesia.
It’s presumed the airplane’s disappearance is an accident.
With these reports, investigators will put weather conditions at the top of their list of areas to probe. They will attempt to determine whether there was a high altitude upset due to turbulence that caused the plane to lose control; whether the plane was intact when it presumably crashed into the sea or whether it came apart in flight, and if so whether this possibility was caused by stresses beyond design limits. Investigators will attempt to determine whether the plane was struck by lightning, causing a chain of events leading to a crash.
Posted on December 28, 2014 by Scott Hamilton