A350 batteries: Flight Global has a detailed story about the Airbus approach to lithium-ion batteries in the A350. The approach is more conservative than Boeing’s for the 787.
A350 Version 1.0: A blog called A350 XWB News has a retrospective on the A350’s original proposal (which we call Version 1.0, because the design went through so many iterations). It’s got the original brochure reproduced. It’s an interesting recollection, and one to compare with the A330neo. Boeing dismisses the A330neo as A350 V 1.0, but it’s really not when you compare.
A350 Final version: A350 XWB production is tracking to plan, first A350 after Qatar’s initial 8 (MSN6 to 13), MSN14 to Vietnam Airlines is going to ground tests (Station 30) after getting wings and empennage in Station 40 at the Airbus Final Assembly Line (FAL) in Tolouse. We are following this program carefully since start and the roll out of the latest XWB from wing join was within days of our prediction 6 months ago, thereby the A350 ramp to three FAL starts by end of year is tracking so far.
A380 downed by mops: Aviation Week has the story on how Qantas cleaners got the water flowing in their A380s when it should not. The incident is old (80 gallons of water flowing around in the fittings of the A380 when climbing out of LAX to Melbourne, first time in June) but one has now found the cause; the cleaners mops were getting the water couplings in a galley unlatched. Small things having big impact.
Boeing record: Qatar airways took delivery of three 787 and one 777 in one day this week; here the Flightglobal version of the Boeing announcement. Airline CEO Al Baker says ““Never in the history of an airline have so many aircraft been taken in just one day.”
Southwest schedule: Southwest Airlines adjusted its schedule two months ago to improve its on-time performance, and revealed that the new times are working.
Southwest, once boasting of being #1, 2 or 3 in on-time ratings among US major carriers, saw a steady decline in recent years as it ramped up service in congested airports, expanded in regions that were more prone to weather delays, added larger airplanes (the Boeing 737-800) to its schedule. After acquiring AirTran, Southwest tightened the schedule in an effort to cut turn-times. But AirTran’s traditional hub operation vs WN’s largely point-to-point didn’t lend itself to the tighter turns Southwest scheduled. It didn’t take a lot of insight to understand why delays were showing up on the AirTran fleet. Southwest’s OT performance is still not where it once was–it’s currently at 78.9% when it used to run in the 80s–but it’s better.
Fundamentals of airliner performance, Part 1
By Bjorn Fehrm
As part of our premium content we provide a briefer form of our airliner performance analysis than we provide to our consulting clients. As we present this material, we presume a lot of knowledge on the part of the reader on the definitions we use and how these are employed. We thought it would be appropriate to give an easy-to-digest clinic on some of these definitions and concepts that we are using. Aired at the same time when we run our analysis series, we thereby present the background to our different analysis steps and some of the key parameters that influence these.
We will fly this aircraft in the latest MAX 8 version on a typical short haul mission of 2.5 block hours covering a distance of 1,000 nautical miles. Starting from the cruise we will explain the factors that determine the performance of the aircraft and how we can estimate their influence. As we present the real values for the performance for the aircraft, we can also give the background to the different characteristics that contribute to the overall efficiency of the aircraft. Read more
10 Comments
Posted on November 4, 2014 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Leeham Co., Leeham News and Comment
737, 737 MAX, 777X, A320, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing
Zhuhai Airshow begins Tuesday: order announcements expected
The Zhuhai Air Show begins next Tuesday and a visit by President Obama to Beijing for a regional summit starts on the last day of the show, Nov. 16. Accordingly, we expect at least some orders to be announced during the show by Airbus, Boeing and perhaps the other airframe OEMs, including the home-grown COMAC, developer of the C919 and parent of AVIC, the developer of the ARJ21.
The Zhuhai Air Show has evolved into China’s premier show. While not on the international reputation and prestige of the long-established Farnborough, Paris and Singapore air shows, it’s become an important must-attend for OEMs and others wanting to do business in China.
Here is our forecast for next weeks’ event.
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7 Comments
Posted on November 4, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, CSeries, Embraer
737, 777, A320, A330, Airbus, ARJ21, Boeing, Bombardier, C919, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, Zhuhai Air Show
Odds and Ends: C919 EIS in 2020, says consultant; Qantas goes on diet; BBD tables Russia; Swiss not Cseries launch operator
C919/ARJ21: Aviation Week reports that the COMAC C919 might fly be the end of next year and that EIS may be in 2018.
However, Michel Merluzeau, of G2 Solutions in Kirkland (WA), predicts the EIS won’t happen until 2020. Speaking last week before the British American Business Council-Pacific Northwest unit conference in Seattle, Merluzeau said that after a recent trip to Shanghai, where COMAC is, he now sees EIS in 2020, some four years late and 12 years after the program was launched. The C919 competes with the Airbus A320/321 and the Boeing 737-800/8 and 737-900ER/9.
Read more
22 Comments
Posted on November 3, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac
airlines, ARJ21, Bombardier, C919, Comac, G2 Solutions, Michel Merluzeau, Q400, Qantas Airways
Boeing considers single, twin aisle, co-development 757/767 style for next new airplane
Subscription required.Now open to all Readers.
Introduction
Boeing is looking at a number of scenarios for its New Airplane Study (NAS) that would replace the 757 and 737, have ranges from 4,000nm-5,000nm, and carry as few passengers as 130 or as many as 240.
Boeing faces some hard decisions in the coming years, as Airbus outflanks Boeing in the single-aisle sector with the A320neo family and its latest offering, the A321neoLR. Our analysis and sales figures show the 737 MAX falling further and further behind in market share as MAX 9 lags vis-à-vis the A321neo.
We spoke with Kourosh Hadi, director of product development at Boeing, during a break at a conference last week organized by the British American Business Council-Pacific Northwest, and covered this and a number of other topics.
Summary
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14 Comments
Posted on November 2, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, CFM, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
737 MAX, 737-9, 757, 757-200, 757-300, 767, 787, A320NEO, A321NEO, A321neoLR, Airbus, BABC-PNW, BACB, Boeing, British American Business Council, CFM, GE Aviation, GE9X, GTF, Kourosh Hadi, LEAP, NAS, New Airplane Study, New Light Twin, New Single Aisle, NLT, NSA, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Ultra Fan
Book Review: American Airlines, US Airways and the Creation of the World’s Largest Airline
American Airlines, US Airways and the Creation of the World’s Largest Airline, By Ted Reed and Dan Reed, c.2014. Publisher: McFarland (website), 800-253-2187. $39.95 on Amazon.
This is the first book about the merger of American Airlines and US Airways, a combination completed only last December.
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3 Comments
Posted on October 30, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airlines, American Airlines
American Airlines, Dan Reed, Doug Parker, Ed Colodny, Piedmont Airlines, Scott Kirby, Stephen Wolf, Ted Reed, The American Eagle, the Ascent of Bob Crandall and American Airlines, Tom Horton, US Air, US Airways, US Airways and the Creation of the World's Largest Airline
Republic Air once again raises doubts about CSeries order, on eve of BBD’s 3Q earnings call
Republic Airways Holdings, a launch customer for the Bombardier CSeries with 40 orders and 40 options for the CS300–the order that prompted Airbus to proceed with the A320neo program, which itself forced Boeing into the 737 MAX–once again raised doubts about the future of its order.
In its 3Q2014 earnings call Oct. 29, on the eve of Bombardier’s own 3Q call on Oct. 30, Republic CEO Bryan Bedford said two carrier certificates would be needed for Republic to operate the CSeries. Republic is moving toward one certificate from multiple certificates to cut costs and simplify operations.
In a transcript of the earnings call prepared by Seeking Alpha, Bedford addressed the CSeries in response to an analyst question:
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10 Comments
Posted on October 30, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries
737 MAX, 787, A320NEO, A350, A380, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Bryan Bedford, CS300, CSeries, Qatar Airways, Republic Airways, Republic Airways Holdings
Aircraft Values of end-of-life A320/737 families to neo/MAX
Special to Leeham News:
From Collateral Verifications
Gueric Dechavanne
Vice President – Commercial Aviation Services
305.908.8695
With the EIS of the Airbus A320NEO and Boeng 737MAX around the corner, we are always asked about our thoughts on the Last-Off-The-Line aircraft and how they will depreciate vs the existing fleet. Based on these requests, we have looked at a few aircraft to see how they depreciated over the last 10-15 years. CV compared a 1999 Boeing 737-400 vs a 1999 737-800 as well as a 2004 Boeing 757-200 vs a 2004 Airbus A321-200. We felt the 757 would be an interesting aircraft to review as there really has not been a direct replacement for the aircraft as of yet.
As you will see from the chart below, the last 737-400 depreciated at a much faster pace than the 737-800. For the 737-400, the average year over year depreciation rate was around 12%. For the 737-800, the year over year depreciate rate has been 5.5% which is more in line with normal deprecation expectations. For the 757-200, the average annual depreciation rate was around 8.5% vs 5.5% for the Airbus A321-200 over the last 10 years.
Read more
6 Comments
Posted on October 29, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing
737-400, 737-8, 737-800, 757-200, A320ceo, A321ceo, Airbus, Boeing, Collateral Verifications
Odds and Ends: A350 batteries; A350 V 1.0; Southwest schedule
A350 batteries: Flight Global has a detailed story about the Airbus approach to lithium-ion batteries in the A350. The approach is more conservative than Boeing’s for the 787.
A350 Version 1.0: A blog called A350 XWB News has a retrospective on the A350’s original proposal (which we call Version 1.0, because the design went through so many iterations). It’s got the original brochure reproduced. It’s an interesting recollection, and one to compare with the A330neo. Boeing dismisses the A330neo as A350 V 1.0, but it’s really not when you compare.
A350 Final version: A350 XWB production is tracking to plan, first A350 after Qatar’s initial 8 (MSN6 to 13), MSN14 to Vietnam Airlines is going to ground tests (Station 30) after getting wings and empennage in Station 40 at the Airbus Final Assembly Line (FAL) in Tolouse. We are following this program carefully since start and the roll out of the latest XWB from wing join was within days of our prediction 6 months ago, thereby the A350 ramp to three FAL starts by end of year is tracking so far.
A380 downed by mops: Aviation Week has the story on how Qantas cleaners got the water flowing in their A380s when it should not. The incident is old (80 gallons of water flowing around in the fittings of the A380 when climbing out of LAX to Melbourne, first time in June) but one has now found the cause; the cleaners mops were getting the water couplings in a galley unlatched. Small things having big impact.
Boeing record: Qatar airways took delivery of three 787 and one 777 in one day this week; here the Flightglobal version of the Boeing announcement. Airline CEO Al Baker says ““Never in the history of an airline have so many aircraft been taken in just one day.”
Southwest schedule: Southwest Airlines adjusted its schedule two months ago to improve its on-time performance, and revealed that the new times are working.
Southwest, once boasting of being #1, 2 or 3 in on-time ratings among US major carriers, saw a steady decline in recent years as it ramped up service in congested airports, expanded in regions that were more prone to weather delays, added larger airplanes (the Boeing 737-800) to its schedule. After acquiring AirTran, Southwest tightened the schedule in an effort to cut turn-times. But AirTran’s traditional hub operation vs WN’s largely point-to-point didn’t lend itself to the tighter turns Southwest scheduled. It didn’t take a lot of insight to understand why delays were showing up on the AirTran fleet. Southwest’s OT performance is still not where it once was–it’s currently at 78.9% when it used to run in the 80s–but it’s better.
21 Comments
Posted on October 29, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing
787, A330neo, A350, A350 Version 1, A380, Airbus, airlines, AirTran, Boeing, lithium-ion batteries, Southwest Airlines
Part 3: Boeing 757 replacement: 757 and Airbus A321neoLR versus clean sheet designs.
Subscription required.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Part 3 of 3
Introduction
In Part 2 of our three-part 757 Replacement analysis, we took a close look at Airbus’ new 97 tonne take-off weight A321neo, revealed in a world exclusive by
Leeham News and Comment October 21. We analyzed the A321neoLR’s capabilities and limitations when compared to Boeing 757-200W and we saw that it could do the international flights that the 757-200 does with about 25% better efficiency. In this final Part 3, we will now compare the 757 and A321neoLR against what can be Boeing’s reaction, a clean sheet New Single Aisle, NSA, or New Light Twin Aisle, (NLT). First the conclusions from Part 2:
Summary
For Part 3 we can summarize:
Figure 1. Fuselage cross sections of our models of NSA and NLT. Source: Leeham Co.
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5 Comments
Posted on October 28, 2014 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, CFM, China, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, GE Aviation, Irkut, Leeham Co., Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce, Uncategorized
737, 737 MAX, A320, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, GTF, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
BABC Conference Part 2: Airbus outlook
Barry Eccleston, president of Airbus Americas, presented the Airbus outlook at the British American Business Council Pacific Northwest conference today.
Highlights:
5 Comments
Posted on October 28, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing
757 replacement, 767-200, A321, A330ceo, A330neo, Airbus, BABC, Barry Eccleston, Boeing, British American Business Council
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