Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Embraer’s big bet on its largest airplane yet
Introduction
Embraer is days away from the roll-out of its biggest airplane project yet and one that has the potential to make its biggest inroads yet into the global defense market: the KC-390.
Rendering of KC390 tanking two Embraer AMX fighters. Source: Embraer
The airplane, with a fuselage cross-section the size of the Boeing 767, challenges the Lockheed Martin C-130, a venerable aircraft that has been updated throughout the decades since it first entered service in 1956. Despite this modernization, Embraer believes the time has come for a modern design and a multi-mission capability that far surpasses that of the C-130, with higher productivity of a jet aircraft vs a four-engine turbo-prop.
KC-390 3D view with main data. Source: Leeham Co
Summary
- Embraer sees a market for 728 KC-390s in 77 countries, excluding the US, Russia, China and Europe.
- The KC-390 is half the price of the Airbus A400M and about the size of the Lockheed Martin C-130.
- Launched with paid development and an order for 28 aircraft from Brazil to fulfill the country’s unique requirements.
- Typical mission capabilities will be: Cargo 7 pallets, Displacement of 80 soldiers, air dropping of 86 paratroopers, transporting 1 Black Hawk helicopter or one LAV25 or 3 Humvees, Rescue missions, Air tanking of 2 aircraft or helicopters.
- The KC-390 flies at M0.8 and will therefore finish missions in two thirds the time of the C-130 Hercules (which flies as M0.5). This will also result in more missions flown per day i.e. more airlift capacity.
New and Derivative Airplanes: Some good, some not: Part 2
Part 2 of two parts.
With multiples and multiples of billions of dollars at stake to develop new airplanes, and the billions of dollars of cost overruns at risk, it’s understandable the Airbus and Boeing are shifting to looking at derivatives and incremental improvements now for the lower-risk and ability to “harvest” technology across family lines.
This is hardly new. Airframers have been doing this since the Douglas DC-1 prototype begot the DC-2, which led to the DC-3. The Douglas DC-4 was the basis for the DC-6 and DC-7, for which there were A, B and C versions. Lockheed revamped the L-049 Constellation through several major upgrades (the -649, 749, 1049 and 1649, with several sub-sub-types in between). Convair created the CV-240 and revised it twice with the CV-340 and 440. The Martin 202 became the 303 (dumped after design issues with the 202) and the 404.
The trend continued into the jet age. Douglas created the DC-8-10/20/30/40/50 on the same basic airframe and really went to town with the DC-8 Super 60 Series. The DC-9-10 became the -20/30/40/50, the Super 80 (in four variants) and the basis for the MD-90 and MD-95. Boeing’s ground-breaking 707-120 became the 138/227/320B/C, the 707-020 (more commonly known as the 720), the C-135/KC-135 and a number of other military variants. The fuselage was the basis of the 727, 737 and 757. And so on. (Text continues below the photo.)
Later this month, we will unveil a new, updated Leeham News and Comment with a combination of paid and free content. Watch this space for more information.
European manufacturers of the early jet age followed the same pattern. There were four commercial versions intended for the deHavilland Comet. The Hawker Siddeley came in multiple versions, as did the British Aircraft Corp. BAC-111.
New and Derivative airplanes: Some good, some not; Part 1
First of two parts.
Earlier this year, Airbus officials said they will concentrate on improving existing airplanes once the A350 enters service.
Boeing followed by saying it would not take any “moonshots” and develop new airplanes, at least for some indeterminate time.
The sentiment on the part of both companies is understandable if not disappointing for aviation purists who want to see new and innovative airplane models rather than made-over sub-types.
This is one of those cases where both schools of thought are right. (Text continues below photo.)
Later this month, we will unveil a new, updated Leeham News and Comment with a combination of paid and free content. Watch this space for more information.
New airplanes are, to state the obvious, very expensive to develop and in this increasingly technological age and demand for “smarter” airplanes that are more fuel efficient and which try to improve passenger experience while cramming as many revenue-paying passengers into the airplane as possible, becoming more and more challenging. Where it once was possible to bring an airplane to market within four years of launch, today airframers routinely look at seven years and even eight. Even derivative airplanes are now taking six or seven years to enter service from launch.
Odds and Ends: 737 rate hike on cash flow; How the Chicago ATC fire impact unfolded; New PW engine chief
737 rate on on cash flow: The Seattle Times has a good article that described the impact on cash flow the decision by Boeing made to boost 737 production to 52/mo in 2018. The rate hike comes at a time when we believe production rates on the 777 Classic will be bottoming out to perhaps as low as five per month, which of course will negatively affect cash flow at Boeing.
We expect Boeing to further increase production rates of the 737 in 2019. The 777X production will just be in its infancy, with entry-into-service planned for 2020. (Information continues below the picture.)
Later this month, we will unveil a new, updated Leeham News and Comment with a combination of paid and free content. Watch this space for more information.
The decline in production rate of the 777 Classic, which we think will happen in 2017 and a like rate reduction for the 747-8, which we believe will occur as early as 2016, represents the reason why Wall Street analysts are turning more and more bearish on Boeing stock.
Leeham News launches Premium plan, companion to free content; engineer joins staff
Free content.
Leeham News and Comment (LNC) today launched a Premium subscription plan as a companion to free content.
LNC has provided news and commentary since February 2008, providing industry-leading information and insightful analysis, principally focuses on Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer but also including emerging challengers to the Big Four OEMs, the leading engine manufacturers, suppliers and airline news.
LNC has been a leading resource of news and comment throughout the commercial aviation industry and its professional followers in the aerospace supply chain, investment analysts and the media.
Since the first of this year, LNC increasingly provided more and more technically-based content. This content is valuable and supplements the industry-leading news and reporting that has been provided since 2008. We are pleased to announce the addition to our staff, Bjorn Fehrm, who focuses on technical evaluation and complements the strategic expertise of Scott Hamilton, the founder of LNC and Leeham Co. consultancy.
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15 Comments
Posted on October 14, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi
737-9, 757, 757 replacement, A321NEO, Airbus, Bjorn Fehrm, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, Embraer, Irkut, Leeham News and Comment, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi