Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: 50×2
By Scott Hamilton
June 3, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus and Embraer are 50 years old this year.
Airbus broke out the party hats last Wednesday. It arranged a formation flying of all its in-production aircraft, including the Beluga XL. It launched a website microsite with its history. A new book, Airbus, The First 50 Years, has been issued. A celebration is planned for the Paris Air Show.
Embraer’s anniversary is Aug. 19, so at this point, its party plans haven’t been solidified, but there will likely be something at the Paris Air Show. Embraer plans to have its new specially painted E195-E2 at the air show.
Boeing CEO says steady progress being made on getting 737 MAX back into the air
By Dan Catchpole
May 30, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg said Wednesday steady progress is being made on getting the 737 MAX back in the air following two devastating crashes within a few months of each other. He stopped short of giving a specific time frame, though.
Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg
However, a spokesman for the International Air Transport Association said the same day that the trade group does not expect the MAX to be back in service before mid-August.
Speaking at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Muilenburg struck an upbeat tone overall and called the crashes a “defining moment” for Boeing. However, he did not indicate that Boeing intends any major changes as a result, and he expressed confidence in the company’s design and certification processes. Though, he did not shut the door to making changes as a result of lessons learned in the wake of the crash.
Muilenburg insisted that the MAX challenges will not affect entry into service for either the 777X in 2021 or the New Midsize Airplane (NMA) in 2025. He also discussed changes to the 737 supply chain, resumption of deliveries and future production rates for the popular single-aisle airplane.
Embraer sees need for 10,550 airplanes in 50-150 sectors
May 29, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer, in what will be its last 20-year market forecast as an independent company, sees a demand for 10,550 jet and turboprop aircraft from 50 to 150 seats through 2038.
The company, founded 50 years ago, growing to become the world’s third largest supplier of airliners, sees its Commercial Aviation unit disappear by the end of this year, barring a hiccup of some kind.
That’s when The Boeing Co. and Embraer expect approval of a joint venture that will be called Boeing Brasil-Commercial (BB-C). Boeing will own 80% of the JV and control governance. Embraer will own 20%. The CEO of the Commercial Aviation unit, John Slattery, will be president of the joint venture, but Boeing will be in charge.
Until then, Embraer is trying to carry on business as usual. And this means it issued its 20-year forecast Monday during its pre-Paris Air Show international media briefing at its headquarters in Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil.
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Embraer’s KC-390 nears delivery
May 28, 2019 © Leeham News: Embraer’s KC-390 multi-role tanker transport is nearing delivery of the first aircraft to the launch customer, the Brazilian Air Force.
KC-390. Photo: Embraer.
In a briefing in advance of the Paris Air Show at Embraer’s Unidade Gavião Peixoto Airport 225 miles from its Sao Jose dos Campos headquarters, program VP Walter Pinto said that most of the required testing is complete.
What’s left?
No new turboprop from Embraer for now
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May 27, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer is not going to launch a new 70-90 seat turboprop now or at the Paris Air Show next month, the CEO of its Commercial Aviation unit said today at the company’s pre-air show briefings in Brazil.
Speculation has been rising since word leaked last year that Embraer began showing a conceptual turboprop airliner to potential customers. But John Slattery, CEO of Embraer 
Commercial Aviation, said the business case has yet to be closed, information still needs to be gathered and analyzed, and studies of the engine technology—including hybrid electric—still must be done.
ATR and Bombardier are the leading global manufacturers of turboprop airliners today. ATR has an overwhelming majority of the backlog, between 80%-85%. Bombardier neglected sales of the Q400 during the development of the C Series. The company last year agreed to sell the program to Canada’s Viking Air. The transaction is expected to close this summer.
Pontifications: Compensation claims against Boeing beginning to ramp up
By Scott Hamilton
May 27, 2019, © Leeham News: Airlines are increasingly going public with desires to be compensated by Boeing for the grounding of the 737 MAX.
Norwegian Air Shuttle and Spice Jet said shortly after the MAX grounding March 13 they were going to seek compensation from Boeing.
Air China has asked for compensation, reports Reuters. Other airlines with grounded MAXes are also beginning to notify Boeing about compensation claims.
- Today’s paywall will be delayed to take advantage of the Embraer pre-Paris Air Show briefings that begins today. I’ll be reporting from Brazil.
Compensation for delivery delays is also a risk to Boeing. This already has reached $1bn, one aviation lawyer estimates, and stands to climb by billions more, depending on how long new deliveries are delayed.
But Boeing is preparing to take a preemptive defensive move against these latter claims.
Tariff threats, China certification issues slow A220 sales
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May 23, 2019, © Leeham News, Toulouse: Airbus took over majority interest the Bombardier C Series July 1 last year. The company immediately announced 120 orders for the CS300, renamed the A220-300, at the Farnborough Air Show, but the deals had been in 
the works with Bombardier before the takeover.
Another flurry of orders was announced at the end of last year.
Since then, virtually nothing.
Tuesday at the Airbus Innovation Days, Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer said the threat of tariffs in the US and the lack of certification in China effectively shuts out two thirds of the world market to the A220.
Monday, tensions between Canada and the US eased a bit when the Trump Administration removed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. But Airbus remains a Trump target at the World Trade Organization over outstanding claims against Airbus for the A380 and A350.
A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO
#AirbusID
May 22, 2019, © Leeham News, Toulouse: The A380 is a success for Airbus despite being forced by the lack of market demand to decide to close the program in 2021, well short of break-even sales.
Guillaume Faury
Guillaume Faury, who took over as CEO in April from retiring Tom Enders, said at the Airbus Innovation Days pre-Paris Air Show briefing yesterday, that the A380 led the path to the successful development and production of the successful A350 and the transformation of Airbus into it is today.
Enders in February decided to end the program, which struggled for years to find buyers for the aircraft in an industry where airline preference shifted from bigger to smaller airplanes.
Faury, however, did not answer a question from Reuters’ aerospace reporter Tim Hepher that if Airbus considers the A380 a success why it refuses to repay German launch aid of more than $600m.
NMA is a briar patch, top Airbus salesman says
#AirbusID
May 21, 2019, © Leeham News, Toulouse: The chief commercial officer for Airbus half hopes Boeing will step into a briar patch and launch its long-discussed New Midmarket Airplane, but the real message is clear: leave well enough alone.
Left unsaid it Airbus doesn’t want to have to launch a new airplane of its own.
Christian Scherer, the chief commercial officer for Airbus, said he wouldn’t speak for Boeing when asked if Boeing “has” to launch the NMA because of the declining market share of the 737 MAX vs the A321neo and inferior range and field performance of the -9/10 MAXes. He questioned Boeing’s own position about the NMA.
He made these remarks on the sidelines of the annual Airbus Innovation Days pre-air show briefings.
“I’m not sure they have a unified position on it. What I want to say is that we are in a very competitive duopoly, which is great for our customers,” he said. “There’s competition everywhere. You don’t have to dominate one segment or the other segment. There’s quite healthy business in it for Boeing on the 737. There’s quite healthy business in it on bigger airplanes. I’m not sure they have to do anything. Do they want to do something? Yeah, maybe.”
Airbus has the “rock” and “hard place” for Boeing NMA
#AirbusID
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May 21, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus has a “rock” and a “hard place” facing any manufacturer that might want to bring a new airplane to the market.
So says Christian Scherer, chief commercial officer of Airbus, who made the declaration at the first day of the Airbus Innovations Days pre-Paris Air Show briefings today.
He called the A321neo the “rock” and the A330-800 the “hard place.”
His oblique reference to another manufacturer was, of course, Boeing and its prospective New Midmarket Airplane, or NMA.
Boeing was widely expected to announce Authority to Offer the NMA for sale during the Paris Air Show next month. The 737 MAX crisis understood to put off this decision until the MAX is returned to service.
In the Middle of the Market, there “isn’t a one solution fits all. Airbus has by far the most competitive solution,” Scherer said. In this market space, a flexible solution is required,” he said.” The A320/321 offers single aisle economics approaching wide-body range. The A330-800 is re-engined, providing Airbus a left-hook, right-hook solution.
These mature programs give Airbus the pricing flexibility.