Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Farnborough: Boeing Global Services ponders 777-300ER P2F program
July 17, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: Boeing Global Services is studying the world’s first passenger-to-freighter conversion program for the 777-300ER, BGS president Stan Deal revealed to LNC today at the Farnborough Air Show.
Boeing sells the 777-200LRF as a new freighter and third parties are gearing up for a 777-200ER P2F program, but up to now, there hasn’t been a -300ER P2F program contemplated.
The -300ERF would be targeted for the volumetric cargo market as opposed to the density-based market that is served by the 777F.
Deal said BGS hopes to conclude its study by fall. A potential conversion cost is not yet known.
Farnborough: First day order recap
By Alex Derber
July 16, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal: Day One of Farnborough 2018 belonged firmly to Boeing in terms of firm orders, although the US manufacturer saved up many of its largest announcements from deals done earlier in the year. Airbus, meanwhile, almost achieved parity if one includes softer commitments from airlines and lessors, although there were some speculative deals, notably a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for 17 A350s from Starlux, a Taiwanese start-up not yet in business.
Other noteworthy deals included lessor Jackson Square Aviation’s first new aircraft order and United decision to buy E175s rather than the newer E2 variant.
Farnborough: Boeing reconsiders metal fuselage for NMA as cost remains major challenge
July 16, 2018, © Leeham News: Farnborough: Boeing has returned to considering a metal fuselage for the New Midmarket Aircraft as an alternative to the ovoid-based composite design that has been the focus for the past two-three years, multiple sources tell LNC.
Boeing hasn’t been able to narrow the cost of the composite design to a point where selling the aircraft in the $70m-range is feasible, sources say.
Farnborough: E190-E2 “quietest single aisle airplane in production,” boasts CEO
July 15, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: Embraer today revealed that the E190-E2 achieved better fuel burn than its target of 16%.
Flight tests showed fuel burn was 17.3% better than the E1, said Rodrigo de Souza, VP Marketing in a press briefing in advance of the official show opening tomorrow.
Wideroe Airlines, the launch operator of the E190-E2, now has three in service. De Souza said initial analysis of the operations show fuel burn is even better than the flight test results, but he declined to be specific until more operations are completed with more airplanes in a few months.
Embraer claims fuel burn is 10% better than the Airbus A220.
Wideroe’s small fleet has completed 800 flight hours at an average of seven hours a day. In eight out of 11 weeks, the fleet had 100% dispatch reliability, he said.
Pontifications: Final Farnborough forecast
Special Sunday edition of Pontifications.
By Scott Hamilton
July 15, 2018, © Leeham News: The Farnborough Air Show officially starts tomorrow, when airframers begin their public relations presentations and orders are announced.
As this is written on July 13, I’m doing a final update of what to expect from the show. It’s always risky making predictions. If they are overly optimistic or pessimistic, the predictor can look foolish.
But here goes.
LNC took its first forecast look June 25.
Airbus’ jetBlue A220 deal, first analysis
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
July 12, 2018, © Leeham News: The Airbus A220 won its first battle against Embraer’s E2 E-Jets, winning the order to replace 60 Embraer E190s at jetBlue. The airline held a telephone conference yesterday, presenting its choice of the A220 and explaining why it chose the A220.
JetBlue said in the call it was a close race. We analyze how close.
Summary:
- JetBlue showed the advantages the A220-300 would have against the incumbent E190. The expected improvement in costs of 25%-30% were identified.
- The airline wouldn’t be drawn on the difference between the A220-300 and Embraer’s E195-E2, the real competitor. Our performance model shows it’s a close race.
JetBlue orders 60 A220-300s in surprise timing
July 10, 2018, (c) Leeham News: JetBlue announced an order today for 60 Airbus A220-300s, nee Bombardier CS300s. The airline took options on 60 more.
The timing is a surprise–JetBlue previously said it would not be ready to order until toward the end of the year.
The order is a blow to Embraer, which has 60 E-190s in service with JBLU. The airline had orders for 20 more, but delivery had been deferred several times. Industry insiders told LNC the order could be canceled with little or no penalty.
The order is a blow to Embraer for the flip and for the loss of a potential E2 order. The E195-E2 seats slightly fewer passengers and has less range than the A220-300.
JetBlue has a large fleet of Airbus A320ceos, a few A321ceos and a large order book for neos.
Boeing, Embraer tie-up key to NMA development
Subscription Required
Introduction
July 9, 2018, © Leeham News: When Boeing and Embraer announced last week the Memorandum of Understanding to form a joint venture between Boeing and 
Embraer Commercial Airplanes, writers and analysts jumped on the bandwagon that LNC pointed out as far back as last year.
Summary
This is:
- A strategic play;
- About Embraer’s engineers and low-cost production in Brazil;
- About tapping Embraer’s resources for development of the potential Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft; and
- About EMB’s potential lead in developing a new single-aisle aircraft to replace the 737, among other things.
Additionally, a Boeing partisan sees new trade complaint against C Series.
Related stories:
Boeing, Embraer to create commercial company, intent for defense JV
July 5, 2018: Boeing and Embraer announced an agreement to create a new company with EMB’s commercial aircraft unit and intent to create a second JV for its defense unit.
The full press release is below the jump.
Related stories:
Boeing eyes international sales with KC-46A deliveries near
Part 2. LNC visited the Boeing KC-46A Everett Modification Center last month. Part 1 appears here.
July 5, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing’s contract with the US Air Force for three dozen KC-46A tankers is but the tip of the iceberg.
Installing the refueling boom on a KC-46A tanker at the Everett Modification Center. Boeing photo.
The USAF’s initial plan is to acquire 179 KC-46As, which was part of the KC-X tanker competition Boeing won after a bitter contest with Airbus and the competing KC-30/KC-330 airplane, based on the commercial A330-200. (For simplicity, LNC will refer to the Airbus as the KC-30.)
There are more than 400 ancient Boeing KC-135s that have to be replaced. Boeing figures it will eventually see the initial 179 aircraft requirement expanded to cover the balance of the KC-135s, although due to budget constraints, last year there were reports the procurement will stop and 179 and the KC-135s will be upgraded.
Then there is the international market. Airbus so far is far and away the winner in this sector. It’s sold 57 to eight customers (including NATO); 29 are in operation. The first one entered service in 2011.