Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
- Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines? May 1, 2025
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
FAA AD may severely limit ETOPS of some RR-powered 787s: sources
British Airways Boeing 787 without engines on the Boeing Paine Field line. Photo taken April 12 by Jennifer Schuld.
April 14, 2018, © Leeham News: An airworthiness directive from the US Federal Aviation Administration is expected as early as Tuesday that could severely restrict flight operations some of Rolls-Royce-powered Boeing 787s.
The AD is expected to require inspections and a reduction in the ETOPS long-range operation to 140 minutes from the nearest airport from 330 minutes, sources say. Inspections have to be made by May 20, according to preliminary information. If inspections fail, ETOPS may be reduced to 60, two airlines tell LNC. A third source didn’t have the numbers but said the AD is expected to be “onerous.”
Until the AD is issued and published, the numbers and conditions could change, one source tells LNC on background.
EASA, the European safety agency, issued its AD yesterday, with an April 20 effective date.
About 25% of the 787s are powered by Rolls-Royce engines, but not all engines are affected.
Leveraged Go Air plans major expansion
April 13, 2018, © Leeham News: Go Air of India is the fourth-ranked low-cost carrier by market share, with big ambitions.
The airline had only 32 airplanes at the end of last year but had more than 140 on order as of last month, presaging expansion domestically and internationally.
Image via Google.
This compares with rival Indigo Airlines, the leading LCC, with a current fleet of 153 aircraft and orders for 380; Jet Airways (115 and 75) and SpiceJet (57 and 155). Subsequent to the end of last year, Jet place an order for 75 more 737 MAXes.
Narrowbody and Widebody engine developments
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 12, 2018, © Leeham News: In an article yesterday about Long-Haul LCC costs we observed how the new Narrowbody engines are catching up to the fuel efficiencies of the Widebody engines.
Traditionally the Widebody engines were the efficiency leaders. The Narrowbody companions were designed to be durable rather than efficient.
Figure 1. Cut through of the Narrowbody LEAP engine. Source: CFM
We use the engine modelling software GasTurb to understand why this catching up of the Narrowbody engines has happened.
Summary:
- The new Narrowbody engines for Airbus’ A320 series and Boeing’s 737 MAX are close in specific fuel consumption to the new Widebody engines.
- We use the GasTurb engine modelling software to find the root cause of this change.
Is Long-Haul LCC viable? Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 11, 2018, © Leeham News: In the second article if Long-Haul LCC is a viable business, we described the cost items which have to be part of a Revenue versus Cost analysis.
In a subsequent article, we used our performance model to develop the typical costs for the aircraft types we study. We now look at these typical costs, discuss their background and relative importance.
Read more
American A330neo loss casts shadow over sales prospects
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Introduction
April 9, 2018, © Leeham News: Even as Airbus touted the new 251t A330-800 and optimism that aging A330-200s will kick start a replacement cycle in 2020-21, the
Airbus A330neo. Photo via Google images.
concurrent loss of a campaign to sell the model to American Airlines casts a shadow over the model and the entire program.
Airbus had just come off the cancellation of the only A330-800 order, by Hawaiian Airlines, which flipped to the Boeing 787-9. As the sole customer for six A330-800s, the cancellation was expected.
Airbus hoped that an American order, for 20 -800s, would prove to be the endorsement of the program that was needed to spur worldwide sales.
Boeing was just as adamant that, like Hawaiian, American order the 787. In this case, Boeing had the leg up: the 787 was already in AA’s fleet (37 of 42 previous orders were already delivered). American wanted to simplify its fleet, not add another type. And airline officials were skeptical of the -800 for the very reason Airbus was so in need of AA’s order.
Summary
- American’s order would have been the boost needed for the A330neo program.
- It would have been an endorsement of the A330-800.
- The 251t, 8,150nm version of the -800 makes a good, niche long-haul airplane.
Pontifications: Limited operations raise doubts over Paine Field airline service
By Scott Hamilton
April 9, 2018, © Leeham News: This fall, the Seattle area will get a second passenger airport: three airlines will begin service at Paine Field, in Everett, which is also home to Boeing’s massive wide-body production plant.
Alaska, Southwest and United airlines will offer 24 fights out of two gates that are under construction.
It’s the first passenger service from Paine Field.
It’s not hardly enough.
India’s airlines order huge numbers of airplanes
April 5, 2018, © Leeham News: India is one of the fastest-growing aviation markets in the world, with airlines there ordering a massive number of airplanes for their size.
- Jet Airways announced a firm order for 75 Boeing 737 MAXes after this article was written.
Airbus and Boeing are selling hundreds of airplanes to India’s fast-growing airlines.
The most prominent airlines have nearly 1,000 airplanes on order. The leading, and most profitable, low-cost carrier, Indigo, is now considering ordering up to 50 twin-aisle aircraft for its first foray into long-haul, LCC service, in competition with the perennial loser, Air India.
It’s also one of the most challenging aviation environments. The government has policies that make it difficult for carriers to operate efficiently.
There have been a number of airline start-ups that make competition fierce. There have been a lot of airline failures.
Operational costs of a Long-Haul LCC
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
April 05, 2018, © Leeham News.: In an article yesterday we described the different costs types for a Long-Haul LCC. We also explained the different parts of the Operational costs for the airline’s aircraft operations.
We will look at the size of these Operational costs in Part 3 of the article series. In this article, we use our aircraft performance model to develop these costs for the LCC’s aircraft.
Summary:
- The smaller Boeing 737 MAX 8 is surprisingly cost competitive with the larger and more capable Airbus A321LR, A330-900 and Boeing 787-9 on our selected route.
- The low trip and seat costs of the MAX 8 can only be used on transatlantic routes like our New York – London route. Any further into the US or Europe and the MAX 8 runs out of range.
China proposes tariffs on Boeing planes, but it’s less than meets the eye
April 4, 2018, © Leeham News: The Trump Administration’s ill-conceived proposed tariffs on aircraft parts made and imported from China prompted what on the surface appears to be a hit back at Boeing, but which in reality seems more fluff than substance.
Jon Ostrower broke the news yesterday about the list of aircraft components Trump proposes tariffs on. Since Boeing uses China for some of its aircraft components, the tariffs would hurt Boeing.
China today proposed 25% tariffs on Boeing airplanes—but excludes the MAX 8 by weight. (The MAX 7 may be included, with between 10-20 announced ordered by two Chinese airlines).
According to Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker, there are only 19 737-800s remaining on order for delivery this year through 2021. This doesn’t include any Unidentified orders.
Eight -800s are scheduled for delivery this year, six in 2019, two in 2020 and three in 2021.
US aerospace analysts are unimpressed. The following is a synopsis of their reaction.
Is Long-Haul LCC viable? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 04, 2018, © Leeham News.: In the first article about Long-Haul LCC and if it’s a viable business, we looked at ticket pricing strategy used by airlines to maximize revenue on a route. Now we look at the cost side of the equation.
The cost level for a Long-Haul LCC is of utmost importance. A lower cost level than the Legacy carriers flying the same routes is the only way the company can compete. It’s seldom it offers origins or destinations not offered by other airlines. Its mission is to offer a popular air transport service at a lower cost.