Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing publicizes fourth Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report May 21, 2025
- Boeing’s 2025 annual safety report due this month May 20, 2025
- FAA’s data of accident, incidents, often not shared May 19, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 22. May 16, 2025
- Services are driving revenues and profits in difficult times, Part I May 15, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: LED runway lighting causes problems
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 19, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: I described in my Corner from 5th of August how a forward looking IR camera could add Enhanced Vision capabilities to a pilot’s tools for safe landings. The camera can pick up the infrared heat radiation from temperature differences in the nature down to a tenth of a degree. It can therefore see things that the naked eye can’t see.
Figure 1 is from a trail that FedEx did before equipping several of its freighters with Enhanced Vision Systems. The Infrared camera (right) can clearly see all heat-emitting objects around the runway, including the fields; the naked eye looking through the cockpit window (left) can’t see anything.
Figure 1. Naked eye (left) versus IR camera (right) when landing on a foggy day. Source: FedEx presentation.
This all works fine as long as the landing and runway lights emit heat, i.e., are standard incandescent types. But these are now replaced more and more with LED lights where there is no heat and therefore no appearance on the Enhanced Vision!
Will Enhanced Vision crumble before it took off? Luckily there is a solution. Read more
ExIm remains blocked by one US Senator
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Introduction
Aug. 18, 2016, © Leeham Co. The US Congress reauthorized the ExIm Bank after a long effort to kill the institution. But the Bank remains out of business for transactions for more than $10m. This means Boeing can’t use the Bank for export financing for purchasers of its 7-Series airplanes.
Why?
Because the Bank doesn’t have a quorum for its Board of Directors.
Why?
Because one US Senator is blocking appointments that would put the Bank back in business.
Who is this Senator?
US Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) is the lone senator blocking the US ExIm Bank from approving credit support for more than $10m. Boeing was a large beneficiary of ExIm support. Shelby is a supporter of the Airbus A320 plant in Mobile (AL). Photo via Google images.
Richard Shelby of Alabama. Shelby once supported ExIm Bank. Now he doesn’t.
According to news reports, Shelby became a convert to the extreme right’s view that ExIm is a form of corporate welfare and Boeing is its primary recipient. Boeing doesn’t need this support, Bank opponents say.
LNC believes there might be another reason.
Alabama is where Boeing rival Airbus opened an A320 assembly plant last year.
Summary
- Airbus had an advantage over Boeing with ExIm Bank shut down—until Airbus ran into its own export financing issues.
- Boeing has a defense unit in Huntsville (AL).
- Emerging Boeing rival Bombardier retains export credit financing support.
Weekly analyst report: Hold on Bombardier
Aug. 17, 2016: Bombardier’s first-half orders from Air Canada and Delta Air Lines for the C
Bombardier got a needed boost for C Series orders in the first half, but some analysts need more. Photo via Google images.
Series helped, but didn’t eliminate skeptics.
Canadian securities firm GMP issued a note Aug. 5 (though we received it only Aug. 12) that maintains a Hold rating.
Goldman Sachs worries about wide-body production rates and overall supply and demand. Morgan Stanley also points to supply-demand.
Pontifications: Mitsubishi ramping up flight testing for MRJ
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 15, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. (MAC) is about to dramatically ramp up its flight testing of the MRJ-90.
Media has been alerted to an all-day event next month, complete with a tour of the Moses Lake (WA) facility, where test airplanes will be based.
The program is two years behind schedule for the brand new design, the first commercial airliner produced by Japan since the YS-11 turboprop more than 50 years ago.
Pontifications: Twelve new designs in 10 years spurred orders
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 8, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The book:bill for Airbus and Boeing this year will be hard-pressed to reach one. Airbus has a better shot, given lower production rates. But the recent years of record-setting orders are over for now.
Unlike some, this doesn’t represent a bursting bubble to LNC. Rather, it’s a natural progression of the cycles that are historically seen.
It’s necessary to put some context into the recent years of these unprecedented number of orders.
Bombardier records $628m loss in 1H2016
Aug. 5, 2016: Bombardier reported its second quarter and half year results today, with a net loss of $628m for the half and a $490m net loss for the quarter.
Alain Bellemare, CEO of Bombardier. CBC photo via Google images.
Results for the commercial division recorded a loss before interest and taxes of $586m.
Ilyushin Finance Corp., one of the customers for the C Series that’s been on LNC’s “Red” category as a high-risk customer, reduced its order for 32 CS300s to 20. IFC also dropped five options.
“We continue to make very good progress executing our turnaround plan,” said Alain Bellemare, President and Chief Executive Officer, said in a statement. “We delivered on our financial commitments, achieved our program milestones and positioned Bombardier to meet both our full year guidance and 2020 goals.”
JP Morgan was the first of the research notes we received today, providing this take:
Interview with Rob Dewar: CSeries in service reliability
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
21July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier”s CSeries project has passed one hurdle after another during its development. The last one was the lack of Marquee customers on top of launch customer SWISS. This has now been solved with large orders from Air Canada and Delta Air Lines.
There is one hurdle remaining: what will be the aircraft’s reliability when it enters into service (EIS)?. We did the EIS interview with CSeries VP and program manager Rob Dewar only two days before the CS100 aircraft would fly its first operational sectors with Swiss last Friday. This autumn, airBaltic will put the larger CS300 into service.
Figure 1. Bombardier’s program manager for the CSeries, Rob Dewar. Source: Bombardier
Summary
- The CSeries has been designed for in service reliability from the outset of the project.
- Systems and solutions have been primarily chosen for the in-service maturity on other platforms.
- Any deviation from this philosophy, like for Fly-By-Wire, Geared Turbo Fan or Electrical brakes, requires that the technology earn its place in the project by bringing unique advantages.
The A380 investors day jinx
- July 15, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: At an event like this, we pick up all sorts of snippets that don’t fit into any given story. So here’s a compilation of our Odds and Ends to wrap up our dedicated coverage of the 2016 Farnborough Air Show.
A380 and investors meeting: The Airbus A380 has been a sensitive topic for investors. Historically stock prices took a major hit when negative news about the A380 emerged. During an investors day in December 2014, one of the executives slipped that the program could be terminated. The stock took an immediate dive and other executives had to clean up the first one’s comments.
Airbus also holds an investors day during the Paris and Farnborough air shows. The latter’s was scheduled on Wednesday. The night before, the French newspaper La Tribune broke news that the production rate of the A380 will be reduced from 20/yr in 2017 to just 12/yr in 2018. Airbus scrambled to catch up to the story Tuesday night in advance of the Wednesday investors day.
The production breaks even at 20 but not at 12. Yet the stock opened down slightly and remained flat during the rest of the day before closing up slightly.
The jinx may be over, but perhaps Airbus either has to fix the A380 program or cancel its investors days.
Bjorn’s corner: Farnborough week
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 15, 2016, ©. Leeham Co, Farnborough Air Show: We have been at Farnborough Air Show this week, the highlight of the year for an aircraft geek like me. This year there were several interesting aircraft that visited the show for the first time.
Embraer brought over the brand new first prototype of the E-jet 190-E2 and the prototype of their military transporter, the KC-390. Bombardier had their first customer/production CS100 from Swiss to visit the show in addition to their Flight Test Vehicle (FTV) no 5. And Lockheed Martin had the F35B, the vertical landing version, come and hover over the airfield the days that were reasonably rain free in the afternoon.
One thing is clear with the new generation of Single Aisle aircraft: their high bypass engines dominate the visual appearance. Figure 1 shows the 73 inch version of the Pratt & Whitney GTF on the E190-E2 prototype. Huge diameter engine on a not so huge diameter aircraft.
Figure 1. The prototype E190-E2 with its Pratt & Whitney GTF engine on the Farnborough apron. LNC photo.
Pontifications: New war of words erupts
By Scott Hamilton
July 11, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: The war of words between Airbus and Boeing is legendary, and it continued unabated today, the first day of the Farnborough Air Show.
- See my column in Forbes for a rundown of the first day’s orders at the Farnborough Air Show.
Boeing continue its refrain during its press briefing that its airplanes are better than Airbus. Airbus returned fire moments later in its own press conference that followed Boeing’s.
But the more interesting war that is emerging is between Embraer and Bombardier.