Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Hopes for 1Q financial progress turns into bumpy ride for Boeing April 21, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18. April 18, 2025
- Natilus: Composite BWB, entry-into-service by 2029, 570 on order April 17, 2025
- China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war April 15, 2025
- Boeing welcomes COMAC competition as Asia-Pacific demand soars April 15, 2025
Pontifications: Planes nobody wants
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus and Boeing continue to offer planes that nobody wants.
Well, almost nobody.
The aircraft remain on the published price lists of both companies, for reasons that passeth understanding. Nobody ordered the aircraft for years.
Pontifications: Boeing’s book:bill shortfall draws market ho-hum
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s falling a little short of a 1:1 book:bill last year was expected and drew a ho-hum from the market.
The stock was up fractionally for the rest of the day after Boeing announced the year-end data at 11 am Eastern time, closing at $159.10.
Airbus announces its full year orders and deliveries Wednesday in a press conference (Boeing only issued a press release).
Pontifications: Embraer, contrary to others, looks to momentum in 2017
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier look toward 2017 as a bit of a punk year, as detailed in our Look Ahead for subscribers only. Not so by Embraer.
In an exclusive interview, John Slattery, the president of Embraer Commercial, said EMB will gain “momentum” this year. This is at a time where sales at the other three of the Big Four OEMs are expected to slow off an already slow 2016.
Pontifications: Leeham News’ approach to the news
- Leeham News and Comment will be on holiday Dec. 24, 2016, through Jan. 2, 2017, barring major breaking news. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 19, 2016, © Leeham Co. Two thousand sixteen is almost over. This will be my last Pontifications of the year.
We approach our job with a little different perspective than the daily newspapers and aviation trades. They have greater resources than we do and have a greater ability to report the news. So LNC tries to bring news with perspective that those outlets don’t.
Analysis, economics, forecasts
We provide analysis of events and of aircraft economics and performance. Not even the trades do the latter. We also make our own forecasts of trends and production rates. Sometimes it takes a few years to be proved right or wrong. So far, we have a good track record of being right.
We’re also not afraid to take on controversy—and be controversial. And we don’t hesitate to call bullshit when we see it.
This gets often us into hot water with the subjects of the controversy.
This is what sets LNC apart.
Pontifications: A fresh perspective at Boeing Commercial is sorely needed
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 28, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing last week named an outsider, Kevin McAllister, as the chief executive officer of Boeing Commercial Aircraft (BCA).
I think this has the potential to be an invigorating move.
McAllister comes to BCA from his position as CEO of GE Aviation Services.
I don’t know McAllister and have no opinion whether he will be good, bad or mediocre. But I do like the idea of bringing an outsider in to run BCA. (My insider favorites were Stan Deal and Beverly Wyse.)
Here’s why.
Pontifications: A history-making year
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 7, 2016, © Leeham Co.: This is a history-making year.
Yes, there is Brexit.
Sure, there is the first woman candidate of a major political party running for the presidency of the US.
Yep, there is the biggest Doofus ever nominated by a major political party also running for the presidency of the US.
But let’s get to something really important.
The Chicago Cubs finally won the World Series 108 years after the last time they did.
Pontifications: Rockwell buying B/E Aerospace: getting out while the getting is good?
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 24, 2016, © Leeham Co.: An announcement Sunday by supplier Rockwell Collins (NYSE:COL) that it will acquire B/E Aerospace (NYSE: BEAV) for $6.5bn caught analysts by surprise. The price tag rises to $8.3bn when assumption of BEAV’s debt is included.
The surprise is not so much BEAV is selling itself. A few years ago, BEAV sold of one of its division and analysts since then believed an exit strategy was underway for the principal owners of the company.
The surprise is that the buyer is Rockwell, a supplier that has little in common with BEAV. A slide from Rockwell’s own investor presentation Sunday illustrates the point.
Rockwell will have an investors’ call Monday at 0830 EDT to further explain the merger.
Pontifications: A good week for Boeing wide-bodies
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 17, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing had a very good week for wide-body orders last week. It recorded 42 orders for the 787 and 10 for the 777-300ER.
Thirty of the former and all of the latter came from Qatar Airways. There were 12 787 orders from “Unidentified,” which in this case was from China Southern Airlines. These were announced Wednesday but too late to show up on the weekly orders update posted Thursday.
787 Book:Bill
For the year, Boeing has 61 net orders for the 787, a healthy increase since the end of June, when the book-to-bill was a paltry 0.25 YTD. Even at 61, this is still a book:bill of just 0.42 for the 787, which has not had a book:bill of more than one since 2013. This means Boeing continues to burn off the backlog faster than it is booking new orders.
But it’s welcome news nevertheless in a year when there has been a dearth of wide-body orders.
Read more
Pontifications: Airbus, Boeing and Qatar; and more on the WTO
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 10, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Last week ended with an order from Qatar Airways for 30 Boeing 787-9s and 10 777-300ERs. Qatar also signed a letter of intent (LOI) for 60 737-8 MAXes.
But that wasn’t the only news in what turned out to be a busy week.
The British American Business Council Pacific Northwest chapter’s annual conference was Tuesday. Airbus Americas president Barry Eccleston discussed the company’s reorganization and recent WTO loss in an exclusive interview with LNC. This was initially behind our paywall; we’ve now opened it to all readers.
He also discussed product development. This post is coming later this week.
Consultant Michel Merluzeau provided his forecast for the next 15 years at the same event.
The Aerospace Futures Alliance held its annual conference two days later. Boeing’s Mike Sinnett, VP of Product Development, gave a rare look into Boeing’s future product thinking. This post is also coming later this week.
Also on Friday, I toured the Boeing 737 factory in Renton with a group of suppliers. I’ll shortly be writing about this as well.
Let’s visit the Qatar order and the WTO issue.
Pontifications: Reorganization at Airbus
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 3, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus confirmed Friday the news reports from Bloomberg and Reuters that a major organizational restructuring of the company is underway.
The Wall Street Journal had this report Friday.
Airbus Group CEO Tom Enders is leading the reorganization. Airbus Commercial CEO Fabrice Bregier becomes president of the Group and president of Airbus Commercial. Other top-level changes, including at 50% owned ATR, the turbo-prop manufacturer, leaked out during the week.
As yet, nothing has been reported about the potential retirement of John Leahy, COO-Customers. Leahy turned 66 in August. It’s always been
Tom Ender, CEO of Airbus Group. Photo via Google images.
assumed he won’t leave Airbus until he’s carried out feet-first. He enjoys the hunt for new sales and he thrives on the competition “with my friends in Seattle.” Update: I missed this article from Reuters in which his deputy, Kiran Rao, is the likely successor.
But following an appearance as the featured speaker at the September Wings Club meeting, Leahy for the first time publicly waffled about his future. This begs the question, of course, who might succeed Leahy. So far, nothing has leaked about this.