Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
MC-21 and C919 compared
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Note: With the first flight of the Irkut MC-21 in the weekend, we move the Qantas Ultra Long Haul article Part 2 to a later date.
Introduction
June 01, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Irkut’s MC-21 and COMAC’s C919 both completed their first flights during last month. Both are new competitors in the market’s hottest segment, that for 150 to 240 seats.
They both challenge the present rulers: Airbus’ A320 and Boeing’s 737 MAX. We made first analysis of the aircraft against their Western competition here, here and here.
We now dig deeper with a direct comparison between the MC-21 and C919 projects.
Summary:
- In the first article, we compare the projects, the structural concepts and the aerodynamics of the MC-21 and C919.
- Follow up articles will compare systems, cabins and overall performance for the aircraft.
Bombardier’s missed opportunity for the CS500
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Introduction
May 29, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing worries that if left unchecked, Bombardier will launch the often-talked about CS500, a 160-189 passenger concept that would compete directly with Boeing’s 737-800 and MAX 8.
Image via Google.
Boeing alleges that Bombardier sold Delta Air Lines 75 CS100s at $19.6m, amounting to price dumping because of Canadian government “subsidies” received in a bailout. Boeing told the US International Trade Commission in a May 24 closing brief that Bombardier, in essence, will become the next Airbus if the ITC doesn’t nothing to penalize Bombardier by slapping 79% tariffs on the Delta aircraft.
As a result, Bombardier stands to drive Boeing out of business and with it, the US aerospace industry.
There are a couple of key flaws in this argument.
Summary
- Bombardier missed its greatest opportunity to develop the CS500 as a competitive airplane to the 737 (and the Airbus A320).
- Boeing claims the CS500 will kill the 737-800. But this model is slated to go out of production by 2019, long before the CS500 could enter service.
- Boeing’s argument assumes the 737 MAX is a long-term airplane. In reality, the New Small Airplane is just around the corner, so-to-speak—which should surpass the economics of the CS500.
Paris Air Show Preview
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Introduction
May 22, 2017, © Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show begins June 17, and few in the industry expect much in the way of orders this year.
The order cycle is on the downward side of the bell curve. Sustaining the 2,000, 3,000 or nearly 4,000 gross orders announced 2011-2013 simply couldn’t be achieved. The “order bubble” had to break, and it did. Last year, Airbus and Boeing reported some 1,400 orders between them.
Airbus guides that it will tough to achieve a 1:1 book:bill this year. Boeing is running about 1:1 book:bill so far but it also guides conservatively. Still, LNC thinks Boeing might surprise this year–and some of this could be at the Paris Air Show.
Leeham Co.’s new publication, Commercial Aviation Report, provides a Focus Report on the Air Show. This encompasses the expectations for Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, COMAC, Irkut, Mitsubishi, CFM, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce into one easy-to-read package.
The pre-airshow press briefings by the OEMs begin next week. We don’t expect any earth-shattering news from these and we wanted to get our views out ahead of these briefings.
Summary
- Boeing wants to launch the 737-10 MAX at the Paris Air Show. This could spur a group of orders that would give Boeing a rare win in the headlines vs Airbus on the latter’s home ground.
- Mitsubishi plans to have its MRJ90 at the Air Show. One airplane entered the paint shop for ANA colors–this might be the one making the appearance.
- Embraer expects to have its KC-390 there. Will the E195-E2 also make an appearance?
Regional aircraft for US Scope clause operations. Part 3.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 18, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In the second article about the US regional aircraft market, we looked at the cabins for the regional aircraft we examine. We started with looking at the typical classes and their seat ratios for the mainline aircraft the regional aircraft are feeding to/from. Then we mimicked that on the regional aircraft.
We filled the cabin with domestic First-class seats, then Premium economy and finally Economy until we got 76 seats or the cabin said stop.
Now we complete the picture by comparing the economics of the aircraft after which we summarize our findings.
Summary:
- The benchmark aircraft for the US scope clauses is the E175 from Embraer. It was designed for the scope clause market.
- It’s larger dimensions means the operating costs are slightly higher than the CRJ900.
- A scope clause-bound operator can compensate the Bombardier CRJ900’s tighter cabin with more seat pitch. It has the longest cabin of all compared aircraft.
- The MRJ70 and CRJ700 are too short for scope clause flying with 76 seat cabins and the MRJ90 is too heavy for the 86,000lb maximum weight limit.
Regional aircraft for US Scope clause operations. Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
May 11, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In the first article about the US regional aircraft market, we described the special rules that apply for outsourced regional airlines, operating for a mainline carrier. The mainline pilots limit the outsourcing via Scope clauses in their Union agreements to aircraft with 76 seats and 86,000lb Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW).
We identified potential aircraft that fit these restrictions in the first article. Now we examine their load carrying capability.
The MTOW limit sets a hard limit on how large aircraft can be used to house 76 seats. The mainline carriers want the regionals to mimic their domestic cabin classes in their aircraft. There shall be no disruption for a First class or Premium economy passenger whether on a mainline flight or on a feed flight to/from the hub.
The challenge is to accommodate the seating standard in the aircraft that come in question.
Summary:
- Mainline airlines want to replicate their three class cabins for all sectors of a network.
- This means the regional aircraft cabins shall offer First class, Premium economy and Economy sections.
- Only the larger aircraft we study can offer a three class cabin with 76 seats.
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How Airbus can kill the Boeing 797
Artisit concept of the Boeing 797. Rendering via Google images.
May 10, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus can kill the business case for the prospective Boeing 797, the New Midrange Aircraft also known as the Middle of the Market Airplane,
- Reuter’s Tim Hepher has this story.
- CNN’s Jon Ostrower has this story.
All it has to do is move first, instead of waiting for Boeing to launch the 797, something considered likely next year.
If Airbus launched what is commonly called the A322, a larger, longer-range version of the A321neo, the new version would become a true replacement for the Boeing 757, meet economics of the smaller 797, which has a working title of the 797-6, at a much lower capital cost.
Pontifications: Boeing complaint against Bombardier no surprise
By Scott Hamilton
May 1, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Boeing Co. filed a complaint with the US Commerce Department and the International Trade Commission charging the Bombardier “dumping” the CSeries in the US to the detriment of Boeing and its 737.
Brazil, on behalf of Embraer, another competitor to Bombardier and the CSeries, previously filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization over similar charges that the Canadian and Quebec governments improperly subsidized BBD when they bailed out Bombardier for the CSeries.
The federal and provincial governments provided about US$1.5bn in investments in a new company that segregated the CSeries from Bombardier. A quasi-government pension fund took an investment in BBD’s rail division, also for more than US$1bn.
Neither move is a surprise.
At the time, the Canadian investments in Bombardier and the CSeries pretty much transformed the CSeries into a government program, managed by BBD.
Could an NMA be made good enough? Part 6
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We have in several articles gone through the sizing of an NMA (New Midrange Aircraft). We looked at the fuselage, cabin, wings and engines. Now we will sum the exercises and look at the performance of the resulting aircraft.
Boeing is seriously considering launching an NMA. The key to the launch decision will be the airplane’s economics: for development and production as well as operation.
The idea is the NMA shall have “twin aisle comfort with single aisle economics.” We will now use or performance model to analyze if the final aircraft has these characteristics.
Summary:
- An NMA designed to the principles in our articles will have a seven abreast dual aisle cabin. The cabin will increase passenger comfort in the 200 to 260 seat range and speed ground operations.
- Careful design of the fuselage, paired with a modern wing and engines, would produce an NMA with “dual aisle comfort and single aisle economics.”
Could an NMA be made good enough? Part 5
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
April 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: After defining the fuselage and wings, it’s now time for the engines. We go through the sizing criteria for engines for airliners and find the size of engine that is needed for the NMA.
The NMA will need engines which are larger than the single aisle engines for Airbus’ A320neo and Boeing’s 737 MAX. But they will be smaller than the next size up for modern engines, the GEnx-2B for Boeing’s 747-8.
Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United
This means the NMA will need new engines, at least 50% larger than the present engines designed for A320neo and 737 MAX.
Summary:
- An NMA engine will be sized by V2 safety speed or Maximum Continuous Thrust (MCT) criteria.
- The normal Top of Climb (ToC) sizing point will be less stressing for a twin engine airliner like NMA.
Boeing-Bombardier complaint could affect competition in coming Delta neo-MAX RFP
Commentary
May 1, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s complaint against Bombardier’s CSeries transaction with Delta Air Lines, and a request for millions of dollars in antidumping and penalties might be coming at a bad time.
Was the Boeing 787 program marked by “launch customer pricing” or “dumping”? This may depend on program or unit accounting. Boeing photo.
“Boeing requests that the Department initiate an antidumping investigation and impose antidumping duties on Aircraft from Canada in an amount sufficient to offset unfair pricing above.”
If Boeing is successful in its request of the US government and International Trade Commission to impose duties before the first CS100 is delivered to Delta next year, the cost of the airplane will balloon from the $19.6m Boeing calculates (and which BBD denies) to at least $33m.
It’s unclear from the complaint who would pay this penalty—Bombardier, maintaining the price to Delta, or would Delta have to pay the reset price?
Regardless, this kerfuffle can’t be welcome news to Delta, which already has a ruffled relationship with Boeing due to its opposition to the ExIm Bank and orders for Airbus aircraft.
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Posted on May 1, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, Delta Air Lines, Embraer, Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney
737 MAX, 737-10, 737-900ER, 787, 7M7, A320ceo, A320NEO, A321ceo, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CS100, CSeries, Embraer, LEAP, Pratt & Whitney