Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
Airbus, Boeing cost-cutting
Sept. 20, 2016: Airbus is planning cost-cutting measures to offset program write-offs and delivery delays, according to The Financial Times.
One of these delays involves the well-publicized problems with the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine on the A320neo.
The CEO of United Technologies, parent of PW, last week said engine deliveries could fall 50-100 engines short of the 200 originally projected for the year, with a likely shortfall of about 50.
The A320neo “gliders” (as an Airbus executive put it) are well known. Bombardier also said it will deliver about half the number of CSeries this year because of GTF issues.
Sam Pearlstein, the aerospace analyst at Wells Fargo, had this synopsis:
Weekly analysts report: Reaction to CSeries delivery delays
Bombardier CSeries: new delivery delays, but this time not BBD’s fault. Photo via Google images.
Sept. 7, 2016: The news that Bombardier is halving its projected deliveries of the CSeries this year because of engine delays from Pratt & Whitney drew commentary from a couple of the analysts whose reports LNC receives.
- Cutting the anticipated deliveries for the Bombardier CSeries was not a surprise to Credit Suisse, but the reason (PW GTF delays) was.
- Goldman Sachs pretty much yawned at BBD’s news.
- Bernstein Research takes another of its periodic looks at the Airbus v Boeing competition, this time for narrow-bodies.
- The sale of CIT Aerospace, one of the world’s largest lessors (and with sizeable orders from Airbus and Boeing), will likely go to a Chinese firm, predicts FBR & Co.. FBR focuses on the lessor industry.
44% supplier shortfall for GTF now showing impact
Sept. 6, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It was a stunning admission, one that produced the biggest headlines at the United Technologies media days in June: 44% of the suppliers on Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan engine weren’t performing to the UTC/PW standards.
The impact of this was seen today when Bombardier announced it will deliver only half the anticipated 15 C Series this year because of engine delivery issues by PW for the GTF powering the new airplane.
Bombardier and PW pointed the finger at its supply chain for the delays in delivering engines.
Bjorn’s Corner: A good in-service start for CSeries
August 26, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier’s CSeries appears to have a good start in airline operations following its show-and-tell at the Farnborough Air Show in July. The first CS100 entered service with launch customer SWISS International Airlines shortly after the international event wrapped up. The aircraft has now been in service a month.
At the show I was on my way to a meeting with Rob Dewar, CSeries VP and Program manager to discuss the expected in service reliability of the CSeries, starting service with SWISS at the end of the week. I was a bit early and decided to use the time to pass the CS100 exhibition aircraft, the first series CS100 for SWISS. It was flown there by a SWISS crew earlier in the week.
Figure 1. C Series first serial aircraft flying in regular service for SWISS. Source: Bombardier.
The SWISS pilots were preparing for the trip home to Zurich as I entered the cockpit. We had time to talk about the aircraft and their expectations for the first revenue flight in two days, on Friday, the 15thof July. Read more
Irkut MC-21-200 deepened analysis
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
August11, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In February we did the first analysis of the Irkut MC-21-200. The analysis was made on the first data available. During the Farnborough Air Show, we got more information around the MC-21 and could see that an update of our first analysis was called for.
Figure 1. MC-21-200, the smaller varaint of the MC-21. Source: Irkut
At the time we compared the MC-21-200 to Airbus A320 and concluded they are about the same size. With the new information, we could see that there is a size difference.
Summary:
- The MC-21-200 is close to Airbus A320neo in external dimensions, a bit smaller in the cabin and has lower take-off weights.
- Irkut, the OEM, suggested standard two class capacity is 132 seats. This is with space to spare in several places.
- To make a fair efficiency comparison with the A320neo, we develop an optimized cabin for the MC-21-200.
Irkut MC-21-300 analysis, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
August04, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: With the classification of the Irkut MC-21-300 done in terms of its size segment (it’s close to the Boeing 737 MAX 9 in size) and the key data of the aircraft analyzed, it’s now time to look at aircraft efficiency and payload-range performance.
Figure 1. MC-21-300 prototype on the final assembly line. Source: Irkut
We will do this with two cabin configurations for the aircraft. The first will be the nominal two class seating as proposed by the OEMs. For the second, we use a single class layout with 30-inch seat pitch.
Summary:
- The MC-21 has problems to compete with the re-engined 737 MAX 9 in terms of efficiency when using the standard two class cabins.
- When we switch to a single class high density layout, the fuel efficiency improves. The MC-21-300 exit concept is then more similar to the MAX 9, which affects efficiency in a positive way.
Irkut MC-21; we look at the MC-21-300, Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
August 01, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: After having found the nearest competitor to the Irkut MC-21-300 as the Boeing 737 MAX 9 in our first article, we now go deeper in the comparison of the two aircraft.
Figure 1. MC-21-300 at the roll out in June 2016. Source: Irkut
In the first article, we found that the aircraft have almost identical cabin dimensions. Now we will look at other areas like airframe dimensions, weights and data which dictate overall performance.
Summary:
- The MC-21 has cabin dimensions which are very close to the 737 MAX 9.
- The nominal two class seating by Irkut is lower than the MAX 9. We have assumed that this will increase during the lifetime of the MC-21.
- We also compare other data between the MC-21-300 and the MAX 9, such as weights, wetted areas and effective wingspans to see if these are similar as well. In the end these dictate the aircraft’s efficiency together with the engines.
Airbus Group 1H2016 results: Trouble in key programs
Updated with analyst reports.
By Bjorn Fehrm
27 July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus Group presented its first half year results today, posting strong results in the face of delivery troubles with the A320neo and A350; and more charges on the ailing A400M. It has been a troubled start to 2016 with deliveries in key programs (A320, A350, A400M, Super Puma H225) being far behind targets. In total only the space segment is going well in Airbus Group at the moment.
The key commercial aircraft segment is still enjoying a vast backlog (6,700 aircraft) and sales which point to a book to bill of one for the year. But deliveries are not going well. Twenty A320neo “gliders” are just now getting their first engines and the A350 delivery problems are dragging on.
On top of that, the A400M program has hit new problems in the engine area where the propeller gearbox needs a redesign. An interim fix is needed to keep customers flying.
Airbus helicopter side has also hit trouble. The large Super Puma H225 helicopter suffered a fatal off-shore area crash in April and is still grounded as the investigation to what broke in the helicopter is taking time.
The financial results for the Airbus Group for the first half of 2016 (1H 2015) were revenue €28.8b (€28.9b) with net profit €1.8b (€1.5b). These figures includes €1.9b in write offs (A400m €1b, A350 €0.4, Currency €0.5b) and €2.1b in capital gain one offs (Launchers JV valuation €1.1b, Dassault shares €0.9b, Divestitures €0.1b). This means that one time effects kept the result up for 1H 2016 but these will not be there the next quarters should the troubles continue. Airbus Group maintains 2016 guidance for Revenue, EBIT and Free Cash Flow.
Here the details of the Airbus Group divisions results for first half 2016:
Flying the Irkut MC-21 simulator
By Bjorn Fehrm
21July 2016, ©. Leeham Co:Russia’s United Aircraft Irkut division had the good taste to bring a fully functional MC-21 simulator to Farnborough Air Show. I managed to get an hour of take-offs and landings during the show’s early hours on Thursday.
The simulator consists of a fixed cockpit, Figure 1, with a panoramic screen giving a terrain view out of the cockpit windows. The terrain model was of good quality and the feeling of flying a good non-moving simulator was there.
Figure 1. United Aircraft’s MC-21 exhibition simulator. Source: LNC
The simulator was especially conceived for exhibitions but it didn’t seem to be less functional because of that. Flight laws should be the same as the full MC-21 simulators but the implementation team is separate from the team which is making the flight crew training simulators. I was accompanied in the Sim by Sergey, one of the software programmers of the simulator. He was interested in my impressions, as it was still relatively early days in the simulator’s design.
Interview with Rob Dewar: CSeries in service reliability
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required
Introduction
21July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier”s CSeries project has passed one hurdle after another during its development. The last one was the lack of Marquee customers on top of launch customer SWISS. This has now been solved with large orders from Air Canada and Delta Air Lines.
There is one hurdle remaining: what will be the aircraft’s reliability when it enters into service (EIS)?. We did the EIS interview with CSeries VP and program manager Rob Dewar only two days before the CS100 aircraft would fly its first operational sectors with Swiss last Friday. This autumn, airBaltic will put the larger CS300 into service.
Figure 1. Bombardier’s program manager for the CSeries, Rob Dewar. Source: Bombardier
Summary
- The CSeries has been designed for in service reliability from the outset of the project.
- Systems and solutions have been primarily chosen for the in-service maturity on other platforms.
- Any deviation from this philosophy, like for Fly-By-Wire, Geared Turbo Fan or Electrical brakes, requires that the technology earn its place in the project by bringing unique advantages.