Pratt & Whitney has completed a design repair for the Pure Power 1500G used on the Bombardier CSeries Flight Test Vehicles (FTVs) and is re-delivering the engines, Leeham News has learned.
Flight tests are expected to resume in September, likely the first half, according to sources close to the situation. BBD will only say flight tests will resume “in the coming weeks.”
A PW spokesman was equally ambiguous. “We continue to work closely with Bombardier to return the CSeries to flight testing,” the spokesman wrote in an email. “I would also note that the fundamental architecture of the Geared Turbofan engine remains sound.”
The FTVs have been grounded since May 29, when a PW engine on FTV 1 suffered a failure in an oil seal, causing a fire and spewing engine parts into the composite wing of the airplane. The wing is undergoing repairs.
Details of the fix for the FTV engines have not been revealed. But one person familiar with the situation told us that the FTV engine repairs enable the test fleet to return to the air, and that the redesign of the affected area of the engine will be incorporated into a production redesign before the CSeries enters service. Bombardier continues to maintain that the CS100, the first of the two-member family scheduled to enter service, will do so in the second half of 2015. Some aerospace analysts believe BBD will be hard-pressed to meet this schedule, and EIS will slip into early 2016. The larger CS300 was scheduled to enter service six months after the CS100, and it’s unclear if this EIS will continue to have a six month gap.
Bombardier is preparing to resume the flight test program with the four FTVs that have been completed; three more are in assembly.
The Pure Power 1100G for the Airbus A320neo, scheduled to enter service in October next year, will incorporate the production redesign, says the source familiar with the situation. No delay is expected in this program.
Posted on August 25, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Dual sourcing: There is always much angst in Seattle among the labor groups and Washington State’s elected officials when Boeing decides to put work outside the state. Much of this angst is because Boeing uses this as a sledgehammer to beat up unions for concessions and the state for tax breaks.
But dual sourcing isn’t really a bad thing. Pratt & Whitney is dual sourcing to avoid a single point of failure, as this article explains. Boeing, of course, has made the same point but it always gets submerged by its heavier-handed tactics. We’ve often made the point that if Boeing wants to set up assembly lines elsewhere, why not use the Natural Disaster Risk Diversion as the reason–and nobody could argue the point (well, they could, but it is a valid concern).
FAA overflights: It’s big news here in the USA, likely far less so in the rest of the world: the racial unrest in the small Missouri town of Ferguson, a suburb of St. Louis, where an unarmed 18-year African-American male was shot six times by a white policeman. Police say the young man attacked a police office. Witnesses say he had his hands up to comply with the officer’s orders. A grand jury will attempt to sort out facts. In the meantime, demonstrations–some peaceful, some not, some with looting–have turned Ferguson into an armed camp of police looking like the Army, in Humvees, battle gear and automatic weapons.
CSeries Status: Here is an interesting, detailed article from a blogger who follows the Bombardier CSeries more closely than anyone we can think of.
The article pretty well summarizes the issues, although we have this additional color: the fixes have been identified and are being installed and are still in Transport Canada review for approval and the green light to resume flight testing.
Airbus accident analysis: Airbus issued a study that looks at the causes of commercial accidents since 1958. The full report may be found here. The report is intentionally light on text and heavy on charts and graphics, so it’s easy to digest.
737 rate increase: Several media reported yesterday that Greg Smith, CFO of The Boeing Co., told an investors day Boeing is likely to decide this year on a production rate increase for the 737 line beyond the 47/mo previously announced to go into effect in 2017. Well, you read it here first–we reported more than a year ago Boeing was looking at a rate increase to 52/mo and even 60/mo. We’ve had in our estimates the 52/mo by 2018, 2019 or 2020, followed by 60 a year or two later.
Kenya Air: no more Boeings: We know some Airbus customers have long tied route authority to buying Airbus airplanes, and China is notorious for holding Airbus and Boeing orders hostage for political reasons. Kenya Airlines now says it won’t buy more Boeing aircraft unless it gets US route authority, according to this article.
Posted on August 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Farnborough Air Show leftovers:
Big CSeries order coming? Flight Global reports that lessor Macquarie Airfinance is about ready to sign a deal for 50 Bombardier CSeries. If true, this would be a major departure for the lessor, which historically hasn’t placed speculative orders–and it would be a major boost for Bombardier. The Flight Global report doesn’t say if this would be 50 firm or a combination of firm and options. BBD and MAF didn’t comment for Flight. We reached out to MAF and received this response:
“The Flightglobal release was concocted on a rumour and we don’t comment on rumours. You know how it is with lessors. We’re constantly considering every aircraft type that could provide us with value-adding opportunities.”
Bombardier has been selling the CSeries in small numbers, often to second or third tier, and even start-up carriers, a path Boeing took in the early days of the 737-200 program. Airbus relied heavily on lessors for early A320 orders. Boutique lessor LCI was a launch customer for the airplane, and Falko Regional Aircraft Leasing became a customer at FAS.
BBD now has 513 orders and commitments for CSeries.
Posted on July 20, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Orders continued to trickle in as the Farnborough Air Show winds down (there could be others not listed here).
Items of interest:
Overall reflections:
Posted on July 17, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
After a long drought of orders or even LOIs and MOUs, the Mitsubishi MRJ program saw some life at this Farnborough Air Show.
Sales of Japan’s first commercial airplane since the propeller-era’s YS-11 stalled with orders from SkyWest Airlines, Trans States Airlines and Japan’s ANA.
But at the FAS, Mitsubishi announced an MOU with Eastern Air Lines, a US start-up carrier, for up to 40 and a much smaller order for six from Air Mandalay.
The Eastern MOU can fairly come under scrutiny if for no other reason than the company is a start-up. Little is known about its financial fund raising and the business model–to begin as a charter airline and transition to a scheduled carrier in the highly competitive US Southeast–doesn’t instill a lot of confidence. EAL, named after the old trunk carrier that went out of business in 1991, has also ordered the Boeing 737-800 after initially announcing plans to begin service with the Airbus A320.
Posted on July 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Here are the orders and commitments announced today that we saw–there could be others we haven’t seen:
Items of note:
Posted on July 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney
737-8, 777-300ER, 777X, A320ceo, A320NEO, A321NEO, A330-900neo, A330neo, Airbus, ATR-72, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, GTF, LEAP-1A, Leap-1B, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi MRJ, MRJ90, Pratt & Whitney, Pratt & Whitney GTF, Q400, Q400 Combi, Twin Otter, Viking Aircraft
The news that Mitsubishi will stage flight testing for its new MRJ 90-seat jet program at Moses Lake (WA) is, parochially, good news. And it is exactly the type of non-industrial aerospace business that we’ve been advocating for Washington since our consulting days to the State Department of Commerce in 2010, and during our tenure as a member of the Board of Directors for the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) for three years (2010-2013).
Washington, understandably, has been married to, and focused on, industrial aerospace. Boeing is here, of course. The supply based the supports Boeing has a huge footprint in Washington. But industrial business is highly capital-intensive, and winning this business is highly competitive.
Posted on July 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney
777-9, 777X, Airbus, Beyond Boeing, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, Gov. Christine Gregoire, Gov. Jay Inslee, GTF, Japan Air Lines, Jim McNerney, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi MRJ, Pratt & Whitney, Pratt & Whitney GTF, Space Shuttle
Fabrice Bregier, CEO of Airbus Commercial, threw cold water on the prospects of an A380neo and an A350-1100, the latter to compete with the Boeing 777-9.
Bregier’s position on the A350-1100 leaves Boeing with a monopoly at the 400-seat marker. Boeing doesn’t view the 777-9, which nominally seats 407 passengers, as part of the Very Large Aircraft sector which begins at 400 seats. Rather, Boeing lumps the -9 into the medium-twin aisle sector (300-400 seats).
While Airbus continues to struggle with sales for the A380, Boeing doesn’t much talk about the 747-8I anymore, focusing primarily on the future potential of the 747-8F. Boeing bravely talks about the prospect of four or five customer sales for the 747-8I this year, including a strong wishful-thinking of an order from Emirates Airlines (president Tim Clark says he’s not interested).
Posted on July 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
GE analysis post Farnborough
Our wrap up of Farnborough would be incomplete without looking closer at the world’s leading engine supplier, GE Aviation, which together with partners (like SAFRAN in CFM joint venture) garnered more than $36 Billion in orders and commitments during the show. This figure was only significantly bettered by Airbus ($75 Billion) and it came close to Boeing’s $40 Billion. With such level of business the claim by GE Aviation CEO, David Joyce, that the Airbus A330neo engine business was not the right thing for GE as they have more business than then they know what to do with, was certainly no case of “sour grapes”. Read more
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Posted on July 28, 2014 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, GE Aviation, Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Uncategorized
737 MAX, 777, 777-300ER, 777X, 787, A320NEO, A330neo, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Embraer, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce