Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
Boeing’s NMA decision entering final stretch, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 26, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing’s NMA or 797 is taking final form ahead of a decision to essentially launch the program with an Authority to Offer (ATO), widely believed to be later this year.
In the first article, we looked at the key characteristics of the design. We also looked at the engine situation in a couple of articles.
Now we round up the series with analyzing the potential economics of the aircraft.
Figure 1. The first sketch of the smaller 797-6X with 224 seats. Source: JonOstrower.com
Summary:
- The projected 797 would have competitive Cash Operating Costs compared with a modern Single Aisle aircraft like the Airbus A321LR.
- The challenge is the capital costs. The A320/A321 and Boeing’s 737 MAX models are produced in numbers passing 10,000. An NMA would be successful if produced in 1,000 units. This leads to higher production costs for the numerically smaller series.
- The focus from Boeing is therefore on lowering Production costs and on finding Services revenue which can help the 797 business case.
In new blow, Boeing defeats Airbus at American, sources say; AA says ‘no decision yet’
Boeing 787. Photo via Google images.
March 23, 2018, © Leeham News: In a new, albeit not unexpected, blow to Airbus, Boeing won a hotly contest competition at American Airlines between the A330neo and the 787, two sources say.
Bloomberg News reported Airbus lost the deal, earlier today.
LNC confirmed the decision with two sources. But Derek Kerr, EVP and CFO of American, told LNC no decision has been made, but an announcement could be coming by the first quarter earnings call if not before.
The competition originated with American’s long-publicized ambivalence over the legacy Airbus A350-900 order placed by US Airways long before the latter acquired American, a 787 customer of long-standing. With this deal, American will cancel the A350 order for 22 airplanes.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft lift
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 23, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In the last Corner, we finished our series about aircraft drag, by studying an airliner flying a mission and noting how the drag changed.
Before we leave the subject of airliner aerodynamics, we shall recap how lift is produced.
Figure 1. Computer Fluid Dynamic output of a Boeing 787 during cruise. Source: Boeing and Leeham Co.
Focus on NMA engines: all OEMs vying for Boeing’s approval
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Introduction
March 22, 2018, © Leeham Co.: As Boeing enters the final stretch whether to launch the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, aka 797) market focus should shift to the 
engines more than the airframe and even the market demand.
It all comes down to this: no engines, no plane.
Monday’s post outlined some of the issues to consider.
But there are larger implications as well.
Summary
- Market sources are tossing about various scenarios about the future GE Aviation and CFM.
- Rolls-Royce won’t have its Trent 1000 problems fixed until 2021 or 2022, at great cost.
- Pratt & Whitney won’t have its Geared Turbo Fan final PIP packages for its problems sorted out until around 2021.
- Resources—both financial and with engineering—are stretched now.
- Sequencing current engine problems, and in the case, GE’s GE9X, are a factor, in the eyes of some.
GE/CFM in “lockstep” with Boeing on NMA
David Joyce
March 22, 2018, © Leeham News: GE Aviation/CFM International are in “lockstep” with Boeing for development of an engine for the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, or 797), the CEO of GE Aviation told a JP Morgan Aviation conference last week.
David Joyce acknowledged that there are technical issues and production delays for the new CFM LEAP 1A and 1B that power the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families respectively. Production is running up to six weeks late, but should be caught up by the end of this year, he said.
Technical issues, while affecting at least 100 engines, nevertheless are far less of an issue than those plaguing rival Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan.
Lion Air takes delivery of Boeing’s first 737-9 MAX
Lion Air took delivery today of the first Boeing 737-9 MAX that will go into revenue service. Leeham News photo.
March 21, 2018, © Leeham News: Lion Air, the low-cost carrier with several affiliates throughout Asia, took delivery of the first Boeing 737-9 MAX today at Boeing Field in Seattle.
Thai Lion will operate the airplane.
Lion Air was the launch customer of the Boeing 737-900ER and it is a launch customer of the 737-9. The airline has more than 100 737-900ERs and more than 80 737-800s. It ordered 201 737 MAX 8/9s and 50 more 737-10 MAXes.
Neither Lion Air nor Boeing have specified how many MAXes are the 8 or 9 models. If the MAX order is pro-rated proportionally with the NG orders, about 110 may be destined to be the 9 MAX.
This should bring the MAX 9 order book to about 360. United Airlines canceled an order for 100 9 MAXes in favor of the 10 MAX when this program was launched at the Paris Air Show last year.
Airbus launches the longest range widebody in the below 300 seat market
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 20, 2018, ©. Leeham News, Toulouse: Airbus launched the 251t version of the A330neo in Toulouse today. The new weight variant increases the range of the A330-800 and A330-900, making the A330-800 the longest range airliner in the 250- to 300-seat segment.
Airbus also presented an update on the progress of the A330neo program, now in the middle of flight tests.
Figure 1. A330neo changes from the A330ceo. Source: Airbus.
Production transformation key to Boeing NMA
March 20, 2018, © Leeham News: As Boeing builds the business case for the New Midrange Airplane (NMA, or 797), dozens of major factors come into play, along with the hundreds or thousands of smaller one.
The market demand, of course, is a well-known business case element.
So is price to the customer, the design and capabilities of the airplane, the engines and the technology of them, whether there will be a sole- or dual-source engine, where the airplane will be assembled and how it will be produced.
- .Production transformation is the focus of the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference June 25-27, organized by Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal.
One Boeing official told LNC that the 797 is as much about production as it is everything else. This goes to cost and cost goes to pricing.
Automation, robotics, digital design, 3D printing and additive manufacturing are key to producing the 797. Many elements are already in place on other Boeing programs, most described in the media already.
One key supplier is Dassault Systemes.
NMA focus needs to be on engines
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Introduction
March 19, 2018, © Leeham Co.: As the market awaits a decision by Boeing whether to launch the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, or 797), focus has been on the aircraft’s definition and market demand.
It should be on the engines.
It doesn’t matter whether Boeing designs a fabulous airplane that’s the next best thing to sliced bread. What matters is whether the engines will be ready in time for Boeing’s suggested entry-into-service and if they are, whether they will be reliable out of the box.
The recent track record isn’t all that encouraging. Neither is Boeing’s preferred timing.
Summary
- CFM, GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce each had problems with their new engines. All continue.
- The Boeing NMA requires brand new engines, not derivatives.
- Engine development and certification within the Boeing preferred timeline is sporty at best.
Pontifications: Boeing faces thousands of retirements in next five years
By Scott Hamilton
March 19, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing faces thousands of retirements in its engineering and touch-labor force ranks over the next five to 10 years, with a limited worker pool for replacements.
A national economy with a low unemployment rate of about 4.1% exacerbates the challenges of finding talent.
These numbers are important to Boeing’s current higher production rate ambitions.
They are even more important as Boeing looks to develop the New Midrange Airplane (NMA, aka 797).
LNC first discussed the looming shortage of engineers in connection with the potential creation of a new company with Embraer.
The Southeast Aerospace and Defence Conference in Mobile focuses on production transformation. Go to Airfinance Journal for program information.