Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Trans-Atlantic for $75, does it work?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
February 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Norwegian will start trans-Atlantic flying between Edinburgh and New England for $75 one-way in late spring when it gets its Boeing 737 MAX 8.
The introductory price will be $69. CEO Bjorn Kjos says the operating costs of the 737 MAX 8, “which is very low,” will make this level of ticket pricing possible.
We were the first to point out (November 2014 in this article) the re-engined MAX 8 would be a trans-Atlantic enabler at a new cost level. We didn’t put the passenger ticket at $75 at the time. Time to check if it’s possible to make money with such fare prices.
Summary:
- We use our aircraft performance model to generate the operating costs between Scotland and New England/upstate New York.
- We then compare the total costs for the trip versus revenue. What is the average ticket price to break even?
- We use an aggressive cabin, the same as for the European traffic.
- Is it OK to travel at that comfort level for the seven hours over the Atlantic?
- For $75, you bet it is.
Brazil files WTO complaint against Canada-CSeries deals
Feb. 8, 2017: Brazil, on behalf of Embraer, filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization over Canadian government investment in Bombardier’s CSeries.
“Brazil notified the WTO Secretariat that it had requested WTO dispute consultations with Canada regarding alleged subsidies provided to Canadian aircraft manufacturer Bombardier,” the WTO announced today. Coincidentally, today it was also revealed the federal government will provide C$372m in loans to Bombardier. Most will go toward the Global 7000 corporate jet program but some will go to the CSeries, which competes with Embraer’s EJets.
Norwegian, from regional to mainline competitor
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 8, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: When SAS (Scandinavian Airlines Systems) canceled Norwegian Air Shuttle’s (NAS) contract to feed its Norwegian network 2002, it had no idea the former feeder would almost run it out of business 10 years later.
The cancellation forced NAS to change tack. Subcontracting as a feeder to a mainline was no longer possible; SAS was the only mainline in Norway after buying Braathens (NAS’ original contractor). NAS decided to become a Low Cost Carrier (LCC).
Ten years later, Norwegian (as we call NAS from now) had taken over a large part of SAS’ European business. SAS was fighting for its life. Another five years and Norwegian’s expansion on LCC long-haul is forcing IAG (BA, IBERIA, Air Lingus, Vueling), Air France-KLM and Lufthansa to react.
How strong a threat to other LCCs and the majors’ long haul operation is Norwegian? We will answer the questions in a series of future articles. We start with Norwegian’s roots and its development til now. Read more
Assessing the future of COMAC programs
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Introduction
Feb. 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: China’s effort to become a viable commercial aerospace alternative was filled with rocky fits and starts for its two signature airliner programs, the AVIC ARJ-21 and the COMAC C919.
COMAC, a spin off from AVIC and yet another government-controlled entity, is already casting eyes on a 250-seat, twin-aisle design, the C929—ostensibly in a joint venture with Russia’s United Aircraft Corp.
The ARJ-21 regional jet finally entered service after delays of eight years. The C919 target EIS is now 2019, six years after the original date. The first flight hasn’t even taken place.
Chinese officials set a target EIS for the C929 of 2026.
A rough road remains ahead for each program.
Summary
- Exceedingly slow delivery ramp up for the ARJ-21.
- First flight of the C919 planned this year.
- Wide-body C929 will challenge the Airbus A330 and Boeing 787.
Pontifications: Boeing’s risk if Trump goes wild
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing officials must be downing antacids by the bushel about now.
President Donald Trump has the Mexican president pissed off. Trump’s spokesman says the immigration ban (or pause, or suspense, depending on the day it’s described) may be expanded to other “terrorist” nations.
Trump threatens a 45% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on Mexican imports.
Why do Boeing officials probably have upset stomachs and flaming heartburn?
Because Boeing has more than 1,200 orders from countries that are in Trump’s crosshairs.
Nearly 770 of them are 737s. More than 300 are 777s. Nearly 170 of them are 787s.
And these are just the identified customers. There’s no telling how many of the 1,101 737s, 16 777s and 76 787s (at Dec. 31) were ordered by Trump’s target and potential target countries.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines in operation, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 3, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In the last Corner, we went through how our airliner engine reacts to the different phases of flight, including what happens when we operate in a hot environment.
We also showed how engine manufacturers make a series of engines with different thrust ratings by de-rating the strongest version through the engine control computer.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
We will now look deeper at how engines are controlled and why so-called flat-rating is important. Read more
Assessing Embraer’s EJet future
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Introduction
Feb. 2, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Embraer’s new E2 jet faces a major challenge: the US pilot Scope Clause that limits the number, seats and weight of aircraft that can by operated by regional airlines on behalf of the US legacy carriers.
The E175 E2 exceeds the 86,000 lb weight limit in the Scope Clause. Unions declined last year to adjust this limit upward. The next round of contract talks begins in 2019.
Summary
- Trans States Airlines has options and letters of intent for 50+50 E175 E2s.
- Skywest is listed by EMB with “firm” orders for 100 E175-E2s and options—but in reality, these are conditional orders.
- Embraer professes confidence in building the bridge between the E1 and E2.
United: the road back
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 1, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: A headline from one year ago read: “UNITED’S QUEST TO BE LESS AWFUL: A bungled merger. A corruption scandal. Three CEOs in a year. But hey, at least the snacks are free again.” (Bloomberg 14 January 2016).
“Things have changed, but not everything is fixed yet,” said Gary Laderman, United’s SVP Finance, Procurement and Treasurer, at the Airline Economics Growth Frontiers conference in Dublin last week.
Figure 1. United’s new Boeing 777-300ER. Source: Chris Edwards/Woodys Aeroimages.
Laderman then candidly went through the history, the fixes and why there is more to come. Read more
Assessing Bombardier commercial programs
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Introduction
Jan. 30, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier hopes to land a major, blue-chip order for its CSeries this year but otherwise isn’t counting on significant orders for its flagship airliner.
Officials don’t have available delivery slots until 2020, bar a few here and there, to attract sizeable orders.
The future of the aging CRJ could get a boost from recalcitrant Us labor unions who refuse to alter the 86,000 lb aircraft weight limit under the Scope Clauses. These make the Embraer E175-E2 and Mitsubishi MRJ90 too heavy for the regional airlines providing contract flying for the US majors.
The future of the Q400 turboprop looks bleak.
Summary
- The CSeries delivery stream appears sufficient to match production ramp up through 2019.
- There is a big production gap in 2020 at the target rate of 10/mo.
- More than 50 firm orders have indefinite deferred delivery dates.
- The backlog for the CRJ “falls off the cliff” next year, as does the Q400.
Pontifications: No rate increase on Boeing 787 predicted
Jan. 30, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing will decide this year whether to boost 787 production to 14/mo from 12/mo by the end of the decade.
I don’t see how this can happen. Neither do several aerospace analysts.
Book:bill sales were just 0.36 in 2014, 0.53 in 2015 and 0.42 in 2016. The last three years saw a book:bill rate average of just 0.43, or an average of 57 airplanes per year.
Boeing is burning off the backlog, not adding to it. At this rate, Boeing won’t be able to sustain rate 12 beyond 2020, let alone boost the rate in 2019.
Not unless there is a plethora of sales this year. This doesn’t seem likely.