Embraer rolls out first E2 tomorrow

Feb. 24, 2016, © Leeham Co., Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil: Embraer will roll out its new E-Jet E2 tomorrow with the first model, the E190E2.

Paulo Cesar, president of Embraer, outlined a short history of the program in the opening of two days of events.

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Airbus Group 2015 results: A330 increase to seven per month

By Bjorn Fehrm

24 February 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus will increase the production rate of the A330AirbusNew from six per month to seven beginning next year, it was announced today. The move comes after reducing the rate from 10 to nine and then to six per month as demand fell for the A330ceo ahead of the development of the A330neo.

Strong sales of the ceo resulted in the about-face to increase the rate.

The news came from the Airbus Group financial results for full year 2015 today in London.

In all other aspects it was a year of solid execution with revenue up 6% to €64.5bn. Profits stayed flat at €4bn despite record deliveries; the A350 and A400M ramp-ups are costly exercises.

Other highlights were;

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IRKUT MC-21 analysis, Part 2

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

Feb. 24, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Two weeks ago we started our analysis of the new Russian single aisle aircraft, United Aircraft’s Irkut MC-21. We looked at key design features and compared these to the Airbus A320.

We also analyzed the passenger capacity where we found that the model which will start flight testing, the MC-21-300, has a capacity between the A320 and the A321. The closest aircraft in capacity and performance in the MC-21 lineup versus the competition would be the MC-21-200 and A320neo.

We have therefore decided to do our efficiency analysis between these variants.

Summary:

  • The MC-21 has a wider fuselage than the A320. This is a positive as it allows passengers to pass each other in the aisle of the cabin.
  • The drawback of the wider fuselage is a bit higher aircraft drag.
  • Coupled with a lower wing aspect ratio, the lighter MC-21 cannot open a fuel consumption advantage over the A320neo, despite being a more modern design.

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Singapore Air Show pictorial

Feb. 2123, 2016: The Singapore Air Show ended last week with a dearth of news. William Bain, associate professor and co-editor of International Relations, provided LNC with these photos.

A350_3

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In strategy shift, Boeing backs 7 MAX: sources

Boeing LogoFeb. 22, 2016, (c) Leeham Co. In a shift in strategy, Boeing is now fully backing development of the 737-7 MAX instead of urging the only two customers that have ordered the airplane to up-gauge to the MAX 8, sources tell LNC.

Southwest Airlines and WestJet are the only two operating airlines for the 7 MAX. There is a third customer, a start-up in Canada that has yet to begin operations.

Sources have told LNC for months that Boeing really didn’t really want to build the 7 MAX, for which there are only 55 orders. But Southwest needs the airplane for short-runway airports like Chicago Midway and Burbank (CA) and has resisted suggestions to up-gauge, LNC is told.

All this changed when it looked like Bombardier might make a sale of its all-new CS100 to United Airlines, LNC is told.

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Transition from McNerney to Muilenburg complete

Dennis Muilenburg

Dennis Muilenburg, Chairman and CEO of The Boeing Co. Boeing photo.

Feb. 22, 2016, (c) Leeham Co.: The transition from the controversial and divisive Jim McNerney to the leadership of Dennis Muilenburg at The Boeing Co. is now complete.

Boeing announced today that McNerney stepped down as chairman and also stepped off the Board of Directors. Muilenburg, who succeeded McNerney as CEO last summer, now also assumes the chairman’s title.

It’s a welcome change.

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Welcome news for Bombardier, Mitsubishi

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Introduction

2000px-Air_Canada_LogoFeb. 22, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The large order (Letter of Intent) last week by Air Canada for 45 firm and 30 option CS300s was welcome news for Bombardier.

And the LOI from the US lessor, Aerolease, for 10+10 MRJ90s was welcome news for Mitsubishi.

We take a look at both announcements and what this means for the two programs.

Summary

  • The Air Canada order breaks the long drought in C Series orders, but it’s not enough for smooth sailing (to mix metaphors) for the aerospace company.
  • Continuing the mixed metaphor, Bombardier still has a long hill to climb.
  • MRJ order, by little known lessor, helps diversify customer base.

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Pontifications: Tax breaks in Washington State

Hamilton KING5_2

By Scott Hamilton

Feb. 22, 2016, © Leeham Co.: A group of Democratic legislators in Washington State will introduce five bills aimed at repealing some tax breaks and also taking yet another run at holding Boeing’s feet to the fire by tying jobs and tax breaks. The latest effort died in committee this year. This is the second year in a row by Boeing’s two key Washington unions, SPEEA (engineers) and the IAM 751 (touch labor) to get a bill out of committee to tie jobs to tax breaks. Boeing opposes the effort.

Most of the bills relate to non-aerospace industries. Two, however do:

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Bjorn’s Corner: Communicate or not?

By Bjorn Fehrm

By Bjorn Fehrm

19 February 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation (MAC) announced on Christmas Day that they delayed the entry into service of the MRJ90 regional airliner by over a year. At the same time, they also announced that they had to reinforce the aircraft’s wing and fuselage.

The market’s reaction to the news was with disappointment. A further delay to a new aircraft from a new player in the market was not good news, but it was not that surprising. Bringing new aircraft to market on time is tough for the established players. Other new entrants, COMAC/AVIC and Irkut, are also running late with their programs, and Sukhoi was late with its SSJ100.

What worried many more was that the aircraft needed reinforcements, directly after its first flights. After only three flights, the aircraft was grounded and was scheduled for changes to its airframe. That was really bad news. “It’s going to be heavier.” How could MAC miss to gravely was the common reaction.

Having worked in a 50% Japanese company for many years, I wondered what was behind this all. Was the aircraft really in dire straits or did we witeness a cultural mismatch I’ve seen many times?

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Rolls-Royce, short and long term outlook

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

Feb. 18, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Rolls-Royce reported earnings for the full year results for 2015 Friday. The share price took a hike after more than one and a half years of being pressed down by bad news.

There was nothing really new that was presented last Friday, with revenue of £13.4bn and profits before tax of £1.4bn. Both results were within the market’s expectations. It was rather the lack of more bad news that made the stock soar to a new high.

We now go behind the scenes to analyze why the stock is depressed and if this is a long term state for Rolls-Royce.

Summary:

  • Rolls-Royce has delivered one bad news after the other since May 2014.
  • The causes behind the bad news have varied between challenges in its Marine business to more competition and lower deliveries for its best-selling Civil Aerospace engine, the Trent 700.
  • Rolls-Royce has also been criticized for boxing in of customers with its after-market TotalCare maintenance program. We describe what has changed and how this affects the situation.
  • The company is also facing some accounting standard changes with the introduction of IFRS 15 for 2018. We discuss what consequences this might have.

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