By Bjorn Fehrm

Subscription required.

Introduction

Dec. 21, 2014: Last week we did a deep analysis of A380 and its competition. It has been windy weeks for the aircraft since the Airbus Global Investor Forum and it was time to bring some needed facts on the table. These facts showed there is a clear difference between the hype being perpetuated in the media and the reality. As we cleared the situation around the A380, we also touched on the large twins that could fulfill at least parts of its missions.

There has been a lot of discussion around these aircraft as well as they form the battle of titans one level down from A380, the large, long-haul market today dominated by Boeing's 777-300ER (the A380 does not have a real competitor--the 748i is clearly smaller, in fact so much smaller that it will be engulfed by the 777-9X).

Summary

• The 777-300ER had an exclusive run in its size until launch of the A350-1000;
• The A350-1000 doesn't enter service until 2017;
• 777-9 EIS set for 2020, with hopes to advance by six months;
• We undertake a full economic analysis which gives good cues as to the future dominance of Boeing or Airbus in this highest margin segment of the market.