Airbus, Boeing YTD orders assessed (Update)

Airbus Boeing Jan-Jun bar chart

Figure 1. Click on image to enlarge.

Update, July 8: In our original post, we omitted 44 Boeing 737NGs from the YTD firm orders. The charts and text have been updated to reflect this information.

July 7, 2015, © Leeham Co. Airbus pulled ahead of Boeing in firm orders through June, and both companies have a number of commitments that were announced at the Paris Air Show that aren’t included in the year-to-date tally.

Airbus leads with single-aisle orders and Boeing leads with widebody orders, but at the half-way point of the year, the contest is far from over. The leads could shift or increase, depending on how the balance of the year goes.

Airbus_Boeing YTD Jan Jun Pie chart

Figure 2. Click on image to enlarge.

For example, Airbus’ YTD tally doesn’t include the commitment for 110 A321neos from Wizz Air, a last minute win at the Air Show in which Boeing was making an aggressive bid for the 737 MAX 200. Nor does it include the announcement for 45 orders from China for A330ceos, made on the last day of June.

For Boeing, a major Memorandum of Understanding announced at the Air Show, for up to 20 747-8Fs from Volga-Dnepr, must be converted into a firm order, although our market sources indicate this may be as few as four new firm orders, plus taking up two white tails, and the balance in options. Korean Air announced a Letter of Intent for 30 MAXes and two Boeing 777-300ERs that need firming. A Chinese lessor announced an MOU for 30 MAXes that also needs firming.

Airbus ended the year’s first half with 54% of the market share between the Big Two OEMs.

Boeing delivered more airplanes in the first half, with full production of the 787 (now at 10/mo) giving it the boost over Airbus, which is only this year ramping up production of the A350.

 

20 Comments on “Airbus, Boeing YTD orders assessed (Update)

  1. Boeing´s dependence on the 737-8 looks worrying. I didn´t know the China A330 order was for all CEOs, although John Leahy did say the announced A330 reduction had possibly come too soon. All the same, I don´t believe Airbus and its suppliers can cope with many WB twins than about about 12 per month while ramping up A320 and A350 production, something had to give and A330 production had the most slack.

  2. I’m curious why figures for the MAX aircraft are not on the graph?

    • @Rotate: the Max orders are there, but having looked again the NG orders are not. I will update Wednesday.
      Hamilton

  3. Orders are good to observe, and crisp numbers.
    But what really counts is money earned minus money spent.
    I guess some orders are very soft regarding pricing, like the B747F or the A330CEOs.

  4. A great read, looking forward to the revised image with NG numbers.

    Just one question, Scott: with such low order numbers for the A319neo and 737 MAX7, is it worthwhile for the manufacturers to continue with them?

    What sort of project costs are involved in developing the shrinked version – would it be better for them to get customers to upgague (like with the A350-800), exit that ‘entry-level’ market, and leave it to Bombardier and Embraer? Or is there a risk that leaving a gap there gives the two smaller players a toe-hold to grow bigger?

    • @Anish: I have my doubts whether A319neo and 737-7 will be built.

      • It’s about keeping pressure on C-Series, not making money…

  5. Interesting information, the orders graph would be intriguing in Size order, for example, my thinking is a MOM would be far more important for Boeing

  6. It would be interesting to see table 2 normalized according to floor space. So it would be easier to figure how “much” aircraft each company sold.

    Boeing has a market share of 168% for narrowbodies! Wow!

  7. Looks like the 2nd graphic wasn´t fix after the update, it still has % at the numbers.

    • @JD, the Graph has unit numbers followed by (after the comma) the percentage the unit numbers represent. It’s supposed to be that way.

      • Ups…. My bad…
        Over here, we use the comma as decimal separator and it shows up in my mind as one number…

  8. “Airbus leads with single-aisle orders and Boeing leads with widebody orders, but at the half-way point of the year, the contest is far from over.”

    “Nor does it include the announcement for 45 orders from China for A330ceos, made on the last day of June.”

    So in reality Airbus sold far more narrow bodies AND wide bodies at the half-way point of the year. Why isn’t that updated?

    • @Keesje: We only make our comparisons on firm orders listed by Airbus and Boeing on their own websites.

      • OK, that’s the best way IMO. It seems the OEM’s sell an aircraft 3 times these days.

        It’s unclear how many of the orders fill in the undisclosed orders. Or how solid those undisclosed orders really are.

        Cancellations seem easy. Probably escapes were negotiated in when the OE’s were aggresively gaining/ trying to protect marketshare.

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