Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
CSeries trans-Atlantic capability
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
February 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We previously described how new generation engines make the Boeing 737 MAX 8 a trans-Atlantic aircraft. The MAX 8 is smaller than the Airbus A321LR, but not the smallest single-aisle with trans-Atlantic capability. This distinction goes to the Bombardier CSeries.
We wrote about the CS100 capability to cross the Atlantic from London City Airport last year. After the article, we received new and improved data from Bombardier. The CS100 can now fly directly to US East Coast on the difficult westward leg with a business cabin of 42 seats. The updated article is here.
When we look at the improved capabilities of the CS300 (announced at Farnborough Air show last summer), this aircraft can also cross the Atlantic with a full cabin of 130 passengers.
Bombardier arranged so we could discuss this deeper with the VP CSeries program, Rob Dewar.
Summary:
- We use our aircraft performance model to compare the CS300’s suitability for long-haul to the Airbus and Boeing competition.
- The aircraft have similar range and seat mile costs. The smaller aircraft have lower trip costs.
- With Rob Dewar, we explored the potential for additional capability for the CS300.
Airbus Group: the old Airbus haunts the new
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 24, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus Group (“Airbus”) presented results for 2016 in line with guidance. The Airbus CEO Tom Enders said, “This is the best Airbus, ever.”
Yet everything was not as expected; most of the press conference was spent on how the sins of the old Airbus still haunt the present company.
The problem areas, A400M and A380, both stem from the same time period, 2000-2003.
This was when the old, non-integrated Airbus wanted to show the world it could build the largest, most capable aircraft. The resulting lighthouse projects, A400M and A380, are still not out of the woods. Read more
ExIm Bank still at risk despite Boeing effort with Trump
US Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama.
Feb. 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing may have won over President Trump about the virtues of ExIm Bank (it’s not entirely clear), but he’s the wrong target.
It’s US Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) who’s been holding up appointments to the ExIm Board of Directors, blocking a quorum needed to approve aircraft financing guarantees on anything more than $10m.
Shifting support
Shelby was the chairman of a key US Senate committee which had direct authority over ExIm Bank appointments. Shelby blocked appointments under President Obama, claiming ExIm is an agency of corporate welfare, of which Boeing was the principal beneficiary.
However, Shelby was once a supporter of ExIm. After Obama was elected, the rise of the so-called Tea Party (largely to oppose all things Obama) targeted ExIm as a wasteful government agency. (Never mind that ExIm returned a surplus to the Treasury since its Depression-era inception though its fees.)
More to the point: Boeing rival Airbus selected Mobile (AL) for a new assembly site, first for the planned US Air Force tanker, the KC-330 based on the Airbus A330-200. The contract award was vitiated after it was determined the USAF treated Boeing unfairly.
Boeing won the re-bid. Airbus then chose Mobile as its US assembly site for the A320 commercial jet family.
As LNC reported in November, it’s hardly a coincidence that Shelby—a supporter of Airbus in Mobile—blocked the ExIm appointments ever since.
New position, same blocking action
With the elections last year, Shelby moved on from his chairmanship of the Senate committee oversight of ExIm.
But he still will block ExIm Board appointments, an Alabama city official who knows Shelby told LNC.
Under US Senate rules, a Senator can put a “hold” on nominations for any reason that require Senate approval.
Shelby appears ready to continue his hold.
Ironically, Boeing is a big employer in Alabama—but in defense, not commercial aerospace.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines in operation, Part 5
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 17, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In our journey of an airline engine’s life, we will now look at the maintenance which is necessary to keep it fit for flight.
An engine is only in top condition once in its life, at delivery. As soon as it’s operated on the aircraft, in-service wear of its different parts will reduce its performance.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
The engine manufacturer’s prescribed maintenance is designed to keep the engine in good health during its life, despite all its hardship. Read more
Singapore 777-9 order pressures, but does not kill A380
Feb. 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Last week’s order by Singapore Airlines for 20 Boeing 777-9s and 19 Boeing 787-10s immediately was viewed by some as the death
Boeing 777-9.
knell for the Airbus A380.
The 777-9 order would start the final spiral down for the A380, some contend.
This overstates the case and misunderstands the nature of the order.
The A380 is in trouble, there no doubt about that. The 777-9 is putting pressure on the A380. There’s no doubt about this, either. But the contention the Singapore 777-9 order sends the A380 on a death spiral is wild fantasy.
An Airbus official appears today at the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) in Lynnwood (WA). Undoubtedly, he will maintain the party line that the future of the A380 is solid. This, too, overstates the case. There can be a future for the airplane, but some major decisions must be made.
Norwegian’s risky fleet expansion
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
February 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In our review of Norwegian Air Shuttle last week (Norwegian from now on), we pointed out the company’s relatively weak balance sheet. It’s considerably weaker than its direct competitors.
At the same time, Norwegians’ fleet expansion is the most aggressive outside of boom markets like India or Indonesia.
Norwegian ordered 200 narrow body aircraft in 2012. It ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8s in January and 100 Airbus A320neos in June. This compares to a narrow body fleet of 70 at the time and a fleet of 100 today (mainly 737-800s). In addition, Norwegian has 30 Boeing 787 long haul aircraft on order on top of the 12 it operates today.
How much risk do these 230 incoming aircraft pose to Norwegian?
Summary:
- Presently, Norwegian absorbs 50% of incoming single aisle aircraft for own needs (Boeing 737-800 and later MAX 8).
- The other 50% (deliveries of Airbus A320neo) are leased to external operators.
- The financing need for incoming aircraft, be it for own or other’s use, is $15bn over the coming years.
- With a balance sheet of of only twice that size and 10% own equity, the going can get rough if the market weakens.
Long, bitter history precedes union vote at Boeing Charleston today
Feb. 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s touch-labor workers at its 787 assembly plant in North Charleston (SC) will vote today on whether to become represented by 
the International Association of Machinists (IAM).
It’s a vote with huge stakes for both sides.
Boeing vociferously opposes a Yes vote. The IAM, which represented workers on the property when it was owned by Vought before Boeing purchased the plant, was voted out by the workers, by then employed by Boeing, just days ahead of Boeing selecting Charleston for the second 787 assembly line. It is widely believed the vote throwing out the IAM was the capper in Boeing’s decision to locate line 2 in Charleston.
The IAM has been itching ever since to regain representation of the workers here. A previous vote was scrubbed when it became clear, via nose-counting, it would fail.
Analyst puts Sell on Boeing stock in unusally bearish report
Feb. 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In an extraordinarily bearish research note, boutique Buckingham Research Group (BRG) downgraded Boeing stock to Underperform (Sell) from Neutral (Hold) today.
BRG, which agrees with other aerospace analysts that Boeing stock is priced on free cash flow, sees FCF falling beginning next year. Buckingham predicts 737 production rates—which Boeing wants to boost to 57/mo to support FCF—will be short-lived.
Buckingham sees 777 Classic delivery rates dropping from Boeing’s target of 3.5/mo to “bottom out” at 2/mo.
Weak orders for the 787 means Boeing won’t increase production rates for the 787 from 12/mo to 14/mo. BRG predicts that in 2019 Boeing will announce a rate reduction from the current 12.mo to 7/mo on one production line, and this line will be only in Charleston (SC).
Boeing VP-Marketing Randy Tinseth speaks tomorrow at the annual Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference in Lynnwood (WA). Tinseth is always the eternal optimist in his presentations. We’ll see if he addresses anything in BRG’s bearish report.
Pontifications: Alaska’s A321neo test drive
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It was subtle, but it was there: Alaska Airlines will take the Airbus A321neo for a test drive.
This will happen via its new sibling, Virgin America, which has 10 A321neos on order. VA is an exclusive A320 operator. Alaska flies only Boeing
737s. The acquisition of VA by Alaska immediately raised questions whether Alaska will retain the Airbus fleet and orders or phase them out in favor of the 737.
Of more interest to partisans than to me, the question over the future of the Virgin America brand also became a top question.
Assessing the MC-21 future
Subscription Required
Introduction
Feb. 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Russia’s Irkut designed a mainline jet to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families that, from a passenger experience
Irkut MC-21 at roll-out. Photo via Google images.
viewpoint, is the best in class.
The MC-21 has a wider fuselage than the A320 (which is wider than the 737). Seats and the aisle are the widest in the class. The overhead bin space is plentiful.
But the airplane is hampered by its environment: Russia itself.
Summary
Read more
Leave a Comment
Posted on February 13, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, China, Comac, Irkut, Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, United Aircraft
737, A320, Airbus, ARJ-21, Boeing, C919, C929, Irkut, MC-21