Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Malaysia Airlines fleet restructuring
April 30, 2015: Malaysia Airlines is offering for sale or lease all six of its Airbus A380s, its two Boeing 747-400Fs and four Airbus A330-200Fs and four Boeing 777-200ERs as it seeks to restructure following a disastrous 2014.
MAS lost two 777s last year: MH370, the flight that disappeared and still hasn’t been found; and MH17, the flight that was shot down over Ukraine.
Elimination of the freighters wipes out MASCargo.
MAS, the passenger operation, has six A380s, 15 A330-300s, 57 Boeing 737-800s with 14 on order and 10 options and 13 777-200ERs, according to Wikipedia. Read more
Fundamentals of airliner performance; Part 7, the wing.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 28, 2015, c. Leeham Co. In our articles where we present an analysis of different airliners, we use a number of terms like aspect ratio, wetted area, etc and we assume that the reader understands what these terms mean and how they are defined. As will be clear from the description below, this is asking for a lot. Several terms which seem straightforward have a more complicated background and definition than what meets the eye.
It is, therefore, high time that we explain how these terms are defined and why we use them in the form they have. It might seem pretty clear what a simple term like wing area is. It should be pretty straightforward what one means and how this is measured, shouldn’t it? Nothing could be further from the truth. It does not describe the area of the wing (only), and there are several definitions of the term and different principles on how these are measured.
So let’s get started, and let’s demystify these terms and understand how they are used and why. We will start with the wing as this has the most terms that need to be explained. We will only touch on the most important definitions, those that we refer to all the time. For a complete understanding of the nomenclature of a modern airliner wing, there are several good sites on the internet and books on the subject. Read more
A380, 10 years later
April 28, 2015: Airbus is celebrating 10 years of its A380 super jumbo.
Just about everybody else is taking pot shots at it.
There’s little doubt the airplane is a masterful achievement. But production miscues delayed the airplane by two years, the market moved on it and when it was envisioned in the late 1990s, the Boeing 777-9 wasn’t.
So 10 years after entry-into-service, and a mere 15 after the program was launched, Airbus faces a crossroads: does it re-engine the airplane on an iffy business case or can it come up with enough Performance Improvement Packages for the airframe and with the engine makers chipping in to give it new life until the market grows into the airplane–if it ever does, say detractors.
Some at Boeing we talked with are rooting for Airbus to take the neo plunge. Read more
Tipping point for supply/demand? We don’t think so
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Introduction
April 28, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Goldman Sachs over the weekend issued a research note, Is the new aircraft supply/demand equation nearing a tipping point?
GS cited the recent United and American airlines actions involving the Boeing 787 and Boeing 777 and other fleet activity or inactivity at Lufthansa Airlines and Virgin Atlantic as harbingers for its thesis.
Goldman has a Sell rating on Boeing stock, based on its belief the demand is leveling off and announced production rate increases by Airbus and Boeing will lead to oversupply.
Summary
- Goldman sees recent fleet actions indicating a softness in demand, driven in part by lower fuel prices.
- United, Lufthansa actions delaying retirement of older aircraft cited.
- Virgin Atlantic decision on Boeing 747 replacements delayed, says Goldman.
- We see other reasons for the above and no meaningful impact.
- Key wide- and narrow-body campaigns pending.
Can PIPs bring the A380 what Emirates Airlines wants?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
26 April 2015, C. Leeham Co: With Emirates Airlines deciding for Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engines for its 50 new A380s and admitting that it would accept that this could be for all of them if Airbus does not proceed with an A380neo, the time has come to look at how much incremental improvements can be brought on the present A380.
Our proprietary aircraft model is particularly suited for such studies as we can change any parameter and read the result off the efficiency scale. We can also play with the aircraft’s configuration and see what effect it will have. Based on Emirates’ new configuration of A380s equipped with the Trent 900 engine, we have checked what incremental improvements are doable and what would they bring.
Summary
- Our deep analysis of 18 Dec. 2014 showed that the present A380 is the most economical aircraft one can operate if one can fill it to normal load factors.
- Emirates COO Tim Clark complements this fact with the statement, “It is Emirates’ most profitable aircraft” in the press conference in London last week when announcing the Trent 900 deal with Rolls-Royce.
- Clark’s statement also covers the fact the passengers prefer A380 over other aircraft if they have a choice, it operates with higher load-factors then Emirates other aircraft.
- The A380 is a rather special design and its characteristics make Product Improvement Packages, PIPs, possible in a number of areas. We discuss which they would be and model their effect on overall performance.
- While the sought-after 10%-13% improvement would not be in there, incremental changes can cover up to half of that with more or less plausible business cases. Airbus is right now deciding which of these they see as worthwhile and introducing them.
Pontifications: Remaking the Armed Services
By Scott Hamilton
April 20, 2015, c. Leeham Co. A news item last week caught my eye about the Defense Department, defense spending and recapitalizing the US Armed Forces.
I don’t normally follow defense items at Leeham News and Comment. LNC is pretty much all-commercial, all the time. I’ve stepped outside this to follow commercially-derived air force tankers (Boeing 767, Airbus A330) and the P-8 Poseidon (the Boeing 737). I took rides on Trident nuclear ballistic missile subs and reported thusly. But this news article, which came about two weeks after my visit to Wall Street where some defense programs were discussed, prompts me to ask: Since we can’t afford the monies required to recapitalize the Armed Forces, what do we do?
I’m going to throw some ideas out and see where they land. I have no doubt some will be blasphemy. But here goes. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Training for airline flying
By Bjorn Ferhm
Introduction
16 April 2015, C. Leeham Co: As described last week, I was asked if I wanted to fly an modern airliner later in the spring and you can guess my answer! Having accepted the challenge, it was time to think about how to get ready. Even though the flying I once learned would sit, modern airliner flying is 90% about the procedures and how these make the transportation of passengers safer and more reliable.
This is something different than just flying the around in the aircraft. It is all about how the aircraft manufacturer has created an environment for consistency, economy and safety and how the goalposts in these dimensions gets moved further and further out. That is what we should test.
I cannot reveal what aircraft it will be, but my tools for training will give away the general type. I am right now using Airbus flight simulators and manuals to refresh my flying and learn the procedures used. Read more
Rolls-Royce displaces Engine Alliance for Emirates A380 order
Rolls-Royce, in a major upset, won the Emirates Airlines order to power 50 Airbus A380s ordered in November 2013. The win displaces Engine Alliance, which to now has been the sole-source provider for EK’s A380s.
Two sources confirmed the RR win. RR and Airbus did not comment on the win. EK and RR have not made any announcement. EA also did not comment.
According to one source, EK determined the RR Trent 900 was determined to be up to 4% more efficient than EA. But it’s unclear if there were other factors involved. Read more
Pontifications: Wizz could be first face-off of 737 MAX 200 vs “A320neo 195”
By Scott Hamilton
April 13, 2015: A campaign that began last year between Airbus and Boeing for a large order of 100 airplanes at Europe’s Low Cost Carrier, Wizz Air, could be the first face off between the “A320neo 195” (our name) and the 737 MAX 200 (Boeing’s name).
Note I said “could be.” I know Boeing is offering the MAX 200. I know Airbus is offering the A320neo. What I don’t know is if Airbus is offering the A320 195.
We first discussed the A320neo 195 last week, after a tip off by Mary Kirby of Runway Girl Network.
Wizz Air, of Hungary, currently operates only A320s and A321s. The competition is for 100 aircraft of the re-engined generation. This is a hot contest, with Boeing looking not only to flip Wizz from the A320 to the 737 but also to get a second customer for the MAX 200. Ryanair was the launch customer for the airplane last year, but no new orders have been landed since. Boeing touts the MAX 200 as the perfect solution for LCCs.
The contest is hot enough that our Market Intelligence indicates the pricing is already comfortably below $40m.
Airbus hasn’t announced a marketing name for its high-density version of the 195-seat A320neo, which last month won regulatory approval of the 195-seat concept. This is at 27-inch seat pitch. The MAX 200, which Ryanair said it will configure for 197 seats, will have a mixture of 30-inch and 29-inch pitch. Airbus believes galley cart requirements means Ryanair will have to go to 194 seats. Read more