Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
Filling the Middle Of the Market gap
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 17, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus and Boeing had completely different views about the product strategy for the “Middle of the Market” sector (MOM), both for today and the future.
Officials presented their views on how to fill the “Middle of the Market gap” at the Air Finance Journal conference in Dublin.
The Airbus view is: “We got it all covered”.
Boeing’s view is: “Not so fast, there is more to it than meets the eye.” Read more
The aircraft market will double in 20 years
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 17, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: The market for passenger aircraft will double over the next 20 years, says Angus Kelly, the CEO of the world’s largest aircraft lessor, AERCAP. He forecast this growth, which is in sync with those from Airbus and Boeing, in his keynote speech at the Airline Economics Growth Frontiers 2017 conference in Dublin.
Kelly linked the growth with the increase in Global air travel. He started by showing what happened in the air travel industry during 2016, Figure 1.
Figure 1. Air transport market 2016 key facts. Source: AERCAP. Click to enlarge.
Passenger travel grew with 5.6% and airlines were more profitable. Negative news was a slowing GDP in China and a widebody market that had a continued slowdown.
Read more
Pontifications: Planes nobody wants
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus and Boeing continue to offer planes that nobody wants.
Well, almost nobody.
The aircraft remain on the published price lists of both companies, for reasons that passeth understanding. Nobody ordered the aircraft for years.
Boeing 737 MAX 10
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
January 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing has given its sales team the “authority to offer” the 737 MAX 10. The aircraft is a stretched version of the 737 MAX 9, designed to compete more successfully with Airbus A321neo.
Boeing worked on the variant for the last year. It started off as a more ambitious change over the 737 MAX 9, but it turned out too expensive and would have taken too long to get to market. The variant that Boeing now offers to airlines is a simple stretch of the 737 MAX 9.
The backing down to a stretched MAX 9 solves the cost and timing problem, but will it solve the competitiveness problem? We make a first analysis.
Summary:
- The offered 737 MAX 10 is a longer fuselage MAX 9.
- The longer fuselage closes the cabin dimensions gap to the A321neo.
- The 737 MAX 10 is longer and heavier than the MAX 9, affecting performance.
- To save field performance, a change to the main landing gear was necessary.
Is Emirates in trouble?
Introduction
Jan. 12, 2017, © Leeham Co.: There are a growing number of articles around the Emirates airline that points to recent weaknesses in the airline’s operating model. Here are just two:
- “Is Emirates Airline running out of sky” asks Bloomberg?
- Is the Emirates Airline Growth Story at An End? writes Forbes.
We decided it was time for a deeper look at this locomotive from the Arab Emirates. Is Emirates in trouble? How solid is it?
We studied the economics for the last decade and took a deep look at the fleet needs, including, has Emirates committed to too many aircraft being delivered over the next several years?
They have just deferred Airbus A380’s for the first time. Used to be they could not get them fast enough?
Summary:
- Emirates has been profitable since start 1985.
- Its unprecedented growth in revenue and passengers has slowed down.
- The low fuel price has kept profits up for now, but yield and load factors are down.
- With a flexible fleet structure and a strong balance sheet Emirates has a strong position to weather any storm going forward.
Comparing 777 Classic, 787 Book:Bill in recent years
Subscription required.
Introduction
Jan. 11, 2017, (c) Leeham Co.: Future production rates of the Boeing 787 is a concern for LNC, which has been explained in detail here.
A little history provides some context.
Figure 1. Analysis from March 2014. Click on image to enlarge.
As far back as March 2014, we identified the growing production gap for the 777 Classic. In presentations in April and May 2014, we outlined this gap (Figure 1) and forecast that production rates would have to come down in the not-too-distant future.
The rest, as they say, is history.
Pontifications: Boeing’s book:bill shortfall draws market ho-hum
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s falling a little short of a 1:1 book:bill last year was expected and drew a ho-hum from the market.
The stock was up fractionally for the rest of the day after Boeing announced the year-end data at 11 am Eastern time, closing at $159.10.
Airbus announces its full year orders and deliveries Wednesday in a press conference (Boeing only issued a press release).
Bjorn’s Corner: Turbofan developments in 2017
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 06, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Before we finish of our series on airliner turbofan technology, let’s spend this Corner on what will happen on the airliner engine front during 2017.
While there is no totally new engine that comes into the market during 2017 there are a number of new variants of existing engine families that will be introduced.
Figure 1. GasTurb principal representation of a three shaft turbofan like our reference Rolls-Royce Trent XWB. Source: GasTurb.
If we start with the engines for regional/single aisle aircraft and then climb the thrust scale, we will cover the engines in climbing thrust class.
Deferrals grow as airlines fight to keep bottom line
Subscription Required
Introduction
Jan. 09, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airlines have deferred or are thinking about deferring more than 400 airplanes in the near term, a review of decisions and deliberations that have been made during the last 12 months.
LNC tracked announcements last year of deferrals and statements by airlines that they are thinking about doing so.
We began identifying macro-level issues last week in our posts about emerging concerns for the 787 and LNC’s Outlook for 2017.
Reasons vary widely for the deferrals, these reports indicated. Low oil prices. Slowing economies. Declining financial results. Worries about two of the three top Middle Eastern carriers. A capital squeeze in China. Pressure on long-haul carriers from the emerging sector of low cost, long-haul airlines. Preserving capital expenditures to keep the bottom line in the black.
Today we detail the deferrals we tracked.
Summary
Read more
1 Comment
Posted on January 9, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, Delta Air Lines, Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce
777 Classic, 787, A380, Airbus, airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, Emirates Airlines, Goldman Sachs, Qatar Airways