Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton and Byran Corliss
Dec. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: The Boeing 737 MAX production shut down will be measured in “weeks,” Boeing told one of its unions.
But “weeks” is a highly open-ended description.
One supplier estimated for LNA that the suspension will be at least 60-90 days.
An aerospace analyst sees the halt lasting 3-6 months at a minimum.
Boeing 737 MAXes stored at Boeing Field. Source: Seattle Times.
LNA’s analysis does not see production resuming before the Federal Aviation Administration notifies Boeing that it has a date certain for recertification. It has announced no timeline, although published reports already suggest this could be any time from mid-February to well into March.
But these are speculative dates.
Dec. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: The Boeing 737 MAX crisis clearly dominated the news this year.
It’s felt like the aviation stories have been all-MAX, all-the-time.
Believe it or not, there was aviation news other than the MAX.
Dec. 21, 2019, © Leeham News: The International Association of Machinists District 751, the touch-labor union at Boeing’s Seattle-area plants, launched a campaign for a strike fund this week.
The current labor contract expires in September 2024, five years from now.
Nevertheless, the union announced its campaign on its Facebook page and a micro-website here.
The union urges members to contribute $50 per paycheck to raise $6,000 by 2024.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
December 19, 2019, © Leeham News: Qantas Airways declared the Airbus A350-1000 the winner for its project Sunrise last week. After two years of competition with Boeing’s 777-8, it was the preferred aircraft for what many say is the holy grail of airline routes, the Sydney-London route.
Many speculate it’s the delay in the availability of the 777-8 that was the deciding factor. We use our airliner performance model to check if this is true or if there are other factors that turned the A350-1000 the favorite.
Dec. 17, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing announced yesterday a suspension in production of the 737 MAX line. It didn’t put a timetable to the shutdown.
But one aerospace analyst predicts the shutdown will be a minimum of three to six months.
The reason? Boeing listed as its new priority, after recertifying the airplane, as clearing out the inventory of 400 stored new-production aircraft.
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey made the prediction in a note issued after Boeing’s after-market announcement yesterday.
Dec. 17, 2019, © Leeham News: Wall Street analysts were fairly aligned in their reaction to Boeing’s decision to suspend production.
Below are excerpt of some of the research notes received by LNA:
Dec. 16, 2016: Boeing said it is suspending 737 MAX production.
Here is the full press release.
By BRYAN CORLISS
Dec. 16, 2019, © Leeham News — Even as Boeing’s board of directors met this weekend to discuss a potential 737 MAX production reduction or freeze, the company has continued to hire workers it will need desperately once it finally gets the go-ahead to resume deliveries of the grounded jet.
So far this month, Boeing hired more than 250 new mechanics at its Puget Sound plants. Insiders also tell LNA managers are talking to their recent retirees–among others- about coming back to work.
This is extremely unusual for Boeing. Historically, hiring at the company all but dries up after Thanksgiving, largely because of a provision in its contract with its union touch-labor workers that makes December a lucrative month to be a Machinist–but an expensive month for Boeing.
Two factors could be driving the hiring: a need to quickly install mandated updates on nearly 800 grounded MAXes once the grounding is lifted, and a long-term global shortage of exactly the kinds of workers who have the necessary skills to do those jobs.
Editor’s Note: News reports Sunday indicated Boeing is considering reducing or suspending production of the 737 MAX. LNA reported this possibility Dec. 11.
While Sunday’s reports suggest Boeing will halt production, LNA is told a rate cut to between 10-20 airplanes a month is also possible in order to minimize impact to the supply chain.
Dec. 16, 2019, © Leeham News: It’s time for catching up on a variety of topics.
Topics this week:
Dec. 11, 2019, © Leeham News: With confirmation by the Federal Aviation Administration that recertification of the 737 MAX won’t happen until 2020, Boeing is rapidly facing a decision whether to reduce or suspend MAX production.
With no end in sight, Boeing can’t continue production of the MAX at the rate of 42/mo much longer.
Through Dec. 6, there were just under 400 MAXes that have been produced. Another 381 MAXes were in service when global regulators grounded the fleet March 11-13.