Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Airline assets and lessor assets: Bombardier and Embraer
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Part 2. Part 1 may be found here.
Introduction
Bombardier invented the regional jet. Despite some sales these days, the CRJ was eclipsed by the Embraer J-Jet. Bombardier photo.
Oct. 10, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Regional aircraft are much riskier assets for lessors than mainline aircraft.
Until recently, Bombardier and Embraer were the only two regional jet Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs).
Today, the Sukhoi SSJ100 and the Mitsubishi MRJ90 join BBD and EMB in this arena.
Summary
- Bombardier’s regional jets CRJ series enjoyed a good life with airlines and lessors, but fell into disfavor as fuel prices spiked.
- BBD’s CSeries was ordered by four lessors, but two of them have question marks.
- Embraer’s E-Jet found good homes with lessors, but some worry about supply-and-demand in the secondary market.
Airbus, Boeing cost-cutting
Sept. 20, 2016: Airbus is planning cost-cutting measures to offset program write-offs and delivery delays, according to The Financial Times.
One of these delays involves the well-publicized problems with the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine on the A320neo.
The CEO of United Technologies, parent of PW, last week said engine deliveries could fall 50-100 engines short of the 200 originally projected for the year, with a likely shortfall of about 50.
The A320neo “gliders” (as an Airbus executive put it) are well known. Bombardier also said it will deliver about half the number of CSeries this year because of GTF issues.
Sam Pearlstein, the aerospace analyst at Wells Fargo, had this synopsis:
Weekly analysts report: Reaction to CSeries delivery delays
Bombardier CSeries: new delivery delays, but this time not BBD’s fault. Photo via Google images.
Sept. 7, 2016: The news that Bombardier is halving its projected deliveries of the CSeries this year because of engine delays from Pratt & Whitney drew commentary from a couple of the analysts whose reports LNC receives.
- Cutting the anticipated deliveries for the Bombardier CSeries was not a surprise to Credit Suisse, but the reason (PW GTF delays) was.
- Goldman Sachs pretty much yawned at BBD’s news.
- Bernstein Research takes another of its periodic looks at the Airbus v Boeing competition, this time for narrow-bodies.
- The sale of CIT Aerospace, one of the world’s largest lessors (and with sizeable orders from Airbus and Boeing), will likely go to a Chinese firm, predicts FBR & Co.. FBR focuses on the lessor industry.
Bjorn’s Corner: A good in-service start for CSeries
August 26, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier’s CSeries appears to have a good start in airline operations following its show-and-tell at the Farnborough Air Show in July. The first CS100 entered service with launch customer SWISS International Airlines shortly after the international event wrapped up. The aircraft has now been in service a month.
At the show I was on my way to a meeting with Rob Dewar, CSeries VP and Program manager to discuss the expected in service reliability of the CSeries, starting service with SWISS at the end of the week. I was a bit early and decided to use the time to pass the CS100 exhibition aircraft, the first series CS100 for SWISS. It was flown there by a SWISS crew earlier in the week.
Figure 1. C Series first serial aircraft flying in regular service for SWISS. Source: Bombardier.
The SWISS pilots were preparing for the trip home to Zurich as I entered the cockpit. We had time to talk about the aircraft and their expectations for the first revenue flight in two days, on Friday, the 15thof July. Read more
Pontifications: Mitsubishi ramping up flight testing for MRJ
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 15, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. (MAC) is about to dramatically ramp up its flight testing of the MRJ-90.
Media has been alerted to an all-day event next month, complete with a tour of the Moses Lake (WA) facility, where test airplanes will be based.
The program is two years behind schedule for the brand new design, the first commercial airliner produced by Japan since the YS-11 turboprop more than 50 years ago.
Pontifications: Twelve new designs in 10 years spurred orders
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 8, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The book:bill for Airbus and Boeing this year will be hard-pressed to reach one. Airbus has a better shot, given lower production rates. But the recent years of record-setting orders are over for now.
Unlike some, this doesn’t represent a bursting bubble to LNC. Rather, it’s a natural progression of the cycles that are historically seen.
It’s necessary to put some context into the recent years of these unprecedented number of orders.
Interview with Rob Dewar: CSeries in service reliability
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
21July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier”s CSeries project has passed one hurdle after another during its development. The last one was the lack of Marquee customers on top of launch customer SWISS. This has now been solved with large orders from Air Canada and Delta Air Lines.
There is one hurdle remaining: what will be the aircraft’s reliability when it enters into service (EIS)?. We did the EIS interview with CSeries VP and program manager Rob Dewar only two days before the CS100 aircraft would fly its first operational sectors with Swiss last Friday. This autumn, airBaltic will put the larger CS300 into service.
Figure 1. Bombardier’s program manager for the CSeries, Rob Dewar. Source: Bombardier
Summary
- The CSeries has been designed for in service reliability from the outset of the project.
- Systems and solutions have been primarily chosen for the in-service maturity on other platforms.
- Any deviation from this philosophy, like for Fly-By-Wire, Geared Turbo Fan or Electrical brakes, requires that the technology earn its place in the project by bringing unique advantages.
Bjorn’s corner: Farnborough week
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 15, 2016, ©. Leeham Co, Farnborough Air Show: We have been at Farnborough Air Show this week, the highlight of the year for an aircraft geek like me. This year there were several interesting aircraft that visited the show for the first time.
Embraer brought over the brand new first prototype of the E-jet 190-E2 and the prototype of their military transporter, the KC-390. Bombardier had their first customer/production CS100 from Swiss to visit the show in addition to their Flight Test Vehicle (FTV) no 5. And Lockheed Martin had the F35B, the vertical landing version, come and hover over the airfield the days that were reasonably rain free in the afternoon.
One thing is clear with the new generation of Single Aisle aircraft: their high bypass engines dominate the visual appearance. Figure 1 shows the 73 inch version of the Pratt & Whitney GTF on the E190-E2 prototype. Huge diameter engine on a not so huge diameter aircraft.
Figure 1. The prototype E190-E2 with its Pratt & Whitney GTF engine on the Farnborough apron. LNC photo.
Pontifications: New war of words erupts
By Scott Hamilton
July 11, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: The war of words between Airbus and Boeing is legendary, and it continued unabated today, the first day of the Farnborough Air Show.
- See my column in Forbes for a rundown of the first day’s orders at the Farnborough Air Show.
Boeing continue its refrain during its press briefing that its airplanes are better than Airbus. Airbus returned fire moments later in its own press conference that followed Boeing’s.
But the more interesting war that is emerging is between Embraer and Bombardier.