By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
08 Feb 2015: Passenger traffic is growing the world over on a regional, domestic and international level. For domestic and international airlines the choice of mainline transport aircraft is clear today: there are only two vendors, Boeing and Airbus, and they produce similar products.
For regional transportation there is more choice. First of all, one can chose type
of aircraft, turboprop or jet. Within jet, there are several OEMs that are active. The choice in turboprop is more restricted. In practice, the choice stands between the classical turboprop with ATR and a faster type from Bombardier, the Q400 “Prop-Jet” as it is called, as its speed lands between the classical turboprop and regional jet.
The question is, what are the real differences between them in terms of design, passenger comfort and economics and what is the right choice for a market segment? We will take a deeper look into this by analyzing the ATR72 as the classical turboprop, the Bombardier Q400 as the Prop-Jet and CRJ700 as the regional jet.
Summary:
- The ATR72-600, Bombardier Q400 and CRJ700 are all about the same size, around 70-80 seats single class or 60-70 seats dual class.
- They offer different comfort levels, and it is not all about speed.
- In developing the economics in two steps we seek the crossover points between the different types.
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Redefining the 757 replacement: Requirement for the 225/5000 Sector
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
25 Feb 2015: Speculation continues to ramp up during the last weeks and months about what Boeing is up to in the 180 to 250 seat sector and what might be Airbus’ response on top of the A321LR. The segment is not well covered today within production aircraft where 737-900ER and the forthcoming MAX 9 cover up to 210 seats and A321-200 and A321neo up to 220 seats. Both fly their passengers up to a realistic mission of 3000nm, i.e. transcontinental USA.
The next in production aircraft are 787-8 and A330-200 at 240 to 280 seats. These are long range dual aisle aircraft with empty weights more than double of the former pair. The 787-8 and A330-200 per seat economics on shorter missions are therefore in another ball game.
The only aircraft that currently bridges this gap is the out-of-production Boeing 757 and there has been much debate how this shall be replaced. We have covered this question in a number or articles focusing on in turn:
We also covered the study work underway at Boeing to cover this segment. We will now dig deeper into this corner after Boeing has unequivocally stated it does not see a re-engine 757 covering this segment and any aircraft that the airlines want should be a bit larger than the 757.
Summary:
Over a series of articles we will cover:
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Posted on February 25, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, GE Aviation, Leeham News and Comment, Premium
737 MAX, 747-8, 757, 787, Airbus, Boeing, KC-767
Boeing’s dedicated freighters views an improving market
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Feb. 22, 2015: An improving global freight market gives Boeing hope that air cargo demand will support the production of two new main-deck freighters a month for years to come. Boeing is struggling to sell 747-8Fs to keep the 747 line alive and needs to sell the 777F to support its goal of maintaining the current 777 production rate of 100/yr through the transition in 2020 to the new 777X.
Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing for Boeing included the projection as a passing reference in remarks Feb. 11 to the 14th Annual Conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance in Lynnwood (WA). The following week we spoke at length with Tom Crabtree, Boeing’s Regional Director, Airline Market Analysis, Marketing & Business Development, about the long-suffering global cargo market and Boeing’s forecast for recovery.
Summary
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Posted on February 22, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance, Premium
747-8F, 777-300ER, 777F, 787, A330-300, A350-900, Airbus, Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, MD-11F, Randy Tinseth, Tom Crabtree
Bombardier’s crisis of confidence perhaps the biggest challenge for CSeries
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Introduction
Feb. 18, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: Alain Bellemare, Bombardier’s new president and chief executive officer, has his work cut out for him.
Figure 1. The CSeries was supposed to enter service in late 2013, two full years ahead of the Airbus A320neo. This market advantage has been lost with repeated delays. BBD is sticking to its public statement that EIS is now the second half of this year (most put EIS in the fourth quarter), but there is growing belief EIS will slip to the first or even the second quarter of next year–after the A320neo EIS. Source: Bombardier, Airbus, Leeham Co. Click on image to enlarge into a crisp view.
We outlined the corporate and market perception challenges ahead of him in our Feb. 13 post. Investor and media reception to the CEO leadership change was mixed. Although Bellemare’s appointment was seen as a positive, stock traded down and Bombardier took a pounding in the press (see some reaction at the bottom of this post).
He also has challenges with a changing market place, driven by two years worth of delays in the CSeries program and exacerbated by a changing global political environment.
Summary
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Posted on February 18, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, China, CSeries, Embraer, Premium
737-7, 737-8, A319neo, A320NEO, Airbus, Alain Bellemare, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, E-190 E2, E-195 E2, E-Jet E1, E-Jet E2, Embraer, Pierre Beaudoin
Regional operations with the Turboprop, propjet or Jet; Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
15 Feb 2015: In Part 1 of this article series we started comparing the alternatives available for turboprop short haul services in the 70 seat segment; ATR72-600 and Bombardier Q400. We also included the closest regional jet, CRJ700 from Bombardier, to compare costs and see where a jet would be
needed to keep trip times within reason.
In Part 1 we went through the capacity of the aircraft and their basic characteristics. We also did a first check of their typical fuel consumption on a standard mission of 300 nautical miles.
We will now look closer at the economics of the aircraft; we fly them over different sectors with different speed profiles. We will also dissect their Cash Operating Costs (COC) and Direct Operating Cost (DOC). Having done all this we will look at the crossover points; for what market is ATR72 the choice and where does Q400 fit. And finally, what route sectors require a jet?
Summary:
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Posted on February 15, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
ATR, Bombardier, Embrarer, Premium
ATR72, Bombardier, CRJ700, Embraer, jetprop, Pratt & Whitney, Q400, Turboprops
Tomorrow’s Bombardier earnings call: trying to be upbeat in the midst of a tornado
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Introduction
As the market prepares for Bombardier’s 2014 year end earnings call tomorrow, CEO Pierre Beaudoin has his work cut out for him to restore confidence among the airlines and lessors who have ordered the CSeries and who might.
The abrupt departure last month of yet another aerospace sales chief, Ray Jones, is the third top executive to leave within a short time. Gary Scott resigned as CEO of the Aerospace unit for personal reasons. Chet Fuller, Scott’s successor, left after his three year contract wasn’t renewed. Jones followed Fuller out the door after 13 months. Guy Hachey, president of the aerospace unit, left in a corporate reorganization of the unit.
Key people is sales and marketing also departed after Jones took over. Philippe Poutissou, VP-Marketing, was unceremoniously ousted as Jones wanted his own team. Rod Sheridan, Vice President Commercial Aircraft Customer Finance, left and joined Nordic Aviation as vice chairman. There has been turnover in the sales force as well.
Summary
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Posted on February 11, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, Premium
737-700, A319, Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, Chet Fuller, CRJ, CSeries, Desjardins, Embraer, Gary Scott, Guy Hachey, Mike Arcamone, Philippe Poutissou, Pierre Beaudoin, Q400, Ray Jones, Rob Dewar, Rod Sheridan
Regional operations with the Turboprop, prop-jet or Jet
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required
Introduction
08 Feb 2015: Passenger traffic is growing the world over on a regional, domestic and international level. For domestic and international airlines the choice of mainline transport aircraft is clear today: there are only two vendors, Boeing and Airbus, and they produce similar products.
For regional transportation there is more choice. First of all, one can chose type
of aircraft, turboprop or jet. Within jet, there are several OEMs that are active. The choice in turboprop is more restricted. In practice, the choice stands between the classical turboprop with ATR and a faster type from Bombardier, the Q400 “Prop-Jet” as it is called, as its speed lands between the classical turboprop and regional jet.
The question is, what are the real differences between them in terms of design, passenger comfort and economics and what is the right choice for a market segment? We will take a deeper look into this by analyzing the ATR72 as the classical turboprop, the Bombardier Q400 as the Prop-Jet and CRJ700 as the regional jet.
Summary:
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Posted on February 8, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airlines, ATR, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Sukhoi
ATR72, Bombardier, CRJ700, CSeries, Embraer, Mitsubishi, MRJ90, Pratt & Whitney, Q400, SSJ100, Sukhoi
Airbus A400M; how good and how late?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
01 Feb 2015: Six years ago Tom Enders, then-CEO for Airbus (when the parent was named EADS), threatened to stop the A400M project. He then played hardball to get eight European states to understand they had to pay 5bn Euro more or get no plane. Airbus existence could be threatened by a project that its management when the program was launch (CEO Jean Pierson) did not want but that the politicians convinced Pierson’s successor, Noel Forgeard, to do.
Airbus A400M Atlas landing at Farnborough Airshow. Source: Wikipedia.
Now Tom Enders is CEO of Airbus Group and has to apologize to the same governments that he struck a deal with then to finish the project if Airbus got the money and a consent to three years of delays. Now Airbus can no longer fulfill the terms and the airplane is still falling short of performance specifications. Deliveries have been delayed further and promised capabilities will be delivered later than said. Like then, heads are rolling at Airbus and tighter control is being applied.
Summary
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Posted on February 1, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Boeing, EADS, Lockheed Martin, MTU, Premium, Rolls-Royce
A400M, Airbus, Boeing, C-130, C-17, EADS, Lockheed Martin, Rolls-Royce
A350-1000 gets upgrade to 387 seats; we analyse the consequences
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
28 Jan 2015: Exactly one week after the first Airbus A350 started regular service between Doha and Frankfurt with Qatar Airways (on 15th of January), upgrades to the A350 capacity was announced by Airbus in a presentation to German investors. The forthcoming upgrade was hinted to media at Airbus annual press conference two weeks ago by Didier Evrard, Airbus head of programs, but no details were given at the time.
Summary:
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Posted on January 28, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Premium
777, 777X, 787, A320, A330, A350, Air France-KLM, Airbus, Boeing, British Airways, Singapore Airlines, United Airlines
First analysis of Mitsubishi Regional Jet, MRJ
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
25 Jan 2015: Japan has not produced a commercial aircraft since 1973, when the last YS-11 twin engined turboprop rolled off the assembly line. The YS-11 was developed by a consortium of Japanese “heavies,” where two are also active in the creation of
the MRJ, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Fuji Heavy Industries. This time Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is very much in command as they own 64% of the company set up to develop, assemble and market the aircraft, Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation, Fuji Heavy Industries are working as design consultants this time.
Figure 1. Mitsubishi MRJ90 starting its Pratt & Whitney GTF engines for the first time. Source: Mitsubishi.
The first MRJ prototype has run its engines 10 days ago and is preparing for first flight later in the spring. It is therefore time to take a closer look at the first model, MRJ90, and compare it to its direct competitor, Embraer 175 E2.
Summary:
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Posted on January 25, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Premium
787, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, GTF, Mitsubishi, MRJ90, Pratt & Whitney
Interview with Airbus CEO Fabrice Brégier: Airbus and innovation
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
18 Jan 2015: When visiting Toulouse last week we got the opportunity to talk to Airbus CEO, Fabrice Bregiér, on one of his pet subjects: the need for Airbus to be more innovative.
Summary
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Posted on January 19, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
AirAsia, Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Premium
737 MAX, 737NG, 787, A320, A330ceo, A330neo, A350, A380, Air Lease Corp., Airbus, Boeing, Fabrice Bregier, John Leahy, Kiran Rao, Steven Udvar-Hazy
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