Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Hopes for 1Q financial progress turns into bumpy ride for Boeing April 21, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18. April 18, 2025
- Natilus: Composite BWB, entry-into-service by 2029, 570 on order April 17, 2025
- China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war April 15, 2025
- Boeing welcomes COMAC competition as Asia-Pacific demand soars April 15, 2025
Airbus A400M; how good and how late?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
01 Feb 2015: Six years ago Tom Enders, then-CEO for Airbus (when the parent was named EADS), threatened to stop the A400M project. He then played hardball to get eight European states to understand they had to pay 5bn Euro more or get no plane. Airbus existence could be threatened by a project that its management when the program was launch (CEO Jean Pierson) did not want but that the politicians convinced Pierson’s successor, Noel Forgeard, to do.
Airbus A400M Atlas landing at Farnborough Airshow. Source: Wikipedia.
Now Tom Enders is CEO of Airbus Group and has to apologize to the same governments that he struck a deal with then to finish the project if Airbus got the money and a consent to three years of delays. Now Airbus can no longer fulfill the terms and the airplane is still falling short of performance specifications. Deliveries have been delayed further and promised capabilities will be delivered later than said. Like then, heads are rolling at Airbus and tighter control is being applied.
Summary
- The A400M rests between the Lockheed Martin C-130 and the Boeing C-17.
- European countries need an airlifter for military and humanitarian missions.
- Dirt airstrip capability is needed.
- The program will take longer to complete and this time Airbus has to pay.
A350-1000 gets upgrade to 387 seats; we analyse the consequences
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
28 Jan 2015: Exactly one week after the first Airbus A350 started regular service between Doha and Frankfurt with Qatar Airways (on 15th of January), upgrades to the A350 capacity was announced by Airbus in a presentation to German investors. The forthcoming upgrade was hinted to media at Airbus annual press conference two weeks ago by Didier Evrard, Airbus head of programs, but no details were given at the time.
The changes were now spelled out more in detail, including pictures of the changed sections of the cabin. Having known about these changes for some time, we can now present the goals of these changes and make a first assessment of how they affect the competitive positioning of the A350.
Summary:
- The improvement program brings the Cabin-Flex lavatories to the A350 interior catalog, enabling smaller lavatory footprint and thereby increased seating densities.
- Airbus has also reworked galleys around the third and fourth door pairs, thereby freeing up galley area in other parts of the cabin.
- Taken together, Airbus claims an 18 seat improvement for the A350-1000, making it a 387 seater in a two class configuration.
- We apply the changes in our cabin model and examines how this will change the competitive landscape between Airbus A350 models and Boeing’s 787 and 777 families.
First analysis of Mitsubishi Regional Jet, MRJ
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
25 Jan 2015: Japan has not produced a commercial aircraft since 1973, when the last YS-11 twin engined turboprop rolled off the assembly line. The YS-11 was developed by a consortium of Japanese “heavies,” where two are also active in the creation of the MRJ, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Fuji Heavy Industries. This time Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is very much in command as they own 64% of the company set up to develop, assemble and market the aircraft, Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation, Fuji Heavy Industries are working as design consultants this time.
Figure 1. Mitsubishi MRJ90 starting its Pratt & Whitney GTF engines for the first time. Source: Mitsubishi.
The first MRJ prototype has run its engines 10 days ago and is preparing for first flight later in the spring. It is therefore time to take a closer look at the first model, MRJ90, and compare it to its direct competitor, Embraer 175 E2.
Summary:
- The MRJ90 and E-Jet 175 E2 are the same size, around 90 seats single class or 80 seats dual class;
- Both aim for scope clause acceptance at 76 seats despite being to heavy; and
- They are different in their fuselage packaging but surprisingly similar in their capabilities.
Interview with Airbus CEO Fabrice Brégier: Airbus and innovation
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
18 Jan 2015: When visiting Toulouse last week we got the opportunity to talk to Airbus CEO, Fabrice Bregiér, on one of his pet subjects: the need for Airbus to be more innovative.
Background to the discussion was that we had observed that Airbus, after decades of a high innovation level, higher than its main competitor Boeing, had slipped behind in the last decade. We wanted to discuss this with Brégier, who has during his tenure, elevated the innovation theme to one of his top priorities. We wanted to see if we had consensus on the past and understood Airbus way forward.
Summary
- A380 problems undercut subsequent innovation; but
- Airbus still maintains innovative lead, Bregier says;
- A350, A320neo, A330neo examples of innovation; and
- Don’t need to overreach when benefits aren’t there.
Customer Quality counts as much as orders, says Boeing
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Introduction
Jan. 14, 2015: Customer quality counts as much as the raw number of orders, a top Boeing official said yesterday during a bit of counter-programming on the day Airbus held its annual press conference recapping the previous year’s orders and deliveries.
In a tele-press conference, John Wojick, Boeing SVP of Global Sales & Marketing, said, “It’s not just orders, it’s also about the quality. We work very hard to do business that will actually get to deliveries. We have a much stronger history of orders-to-deliveries than our competitor.”
Summary
- Wojick has a point: Boeing’s customer quality orders historically have been better than Airbus; but
- This is changing. Our Storm Warning Flag assessment shows an improved Airbus customer quality base among the top orders.
- Both companies overbook in anticipation of cancellations and deferrals; Airbus is more aggressive in this practice.
- Airbus had three times the cancellations in 2014 as Boeing.
A380neo decision likely this year, triggering the next widebody engine project
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Jan. 12, 2015: One of the subjects which is sure to come up on Airbus annual press conference on Tuesday the 13th in Toulouse will be when and how Airbus will re-engine the A380.
Airbus Commercial CEO Fabrice Bregier vowed during the Airbus Group Global Investors Day last month that an A380neo is coming.
There is much speculation around this subject as the business case of re-engineering an aircraft that is selling at such low numbers is difficult to get to close. The business case is difficult to make work for Airbus (such a project will cost in the order of $2 billion) but it will be equally hard for the engine manufacturers to offer engines that have enough efficiency gain to make the overall project feasible from an efficiency improvement perspective.
Summary
- A380 Classic equals Boeing 777-300ER seat fuel costs.
- Boeing 777-9 beats A380 on CASM, an A380neo regains the advantage.
- Engine makers face hard choices to retain dominance or to broaden market penetration.
2015 a year of execution for Embraer commercial
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Introduction
Jan. 7, 2015: Embraer, the world’s #3 commercial airplane manufacturer, enters 2015 viewing this as a year of execution, says its chief commercial officer, John S. Slattery.
There are three pillars:
- Continuing to fill out the balance of the current generation orders and commitments in advance of the E-Jet E2 re-engined airplane scheduled for entry-into-service in 2018;
- Execution to continue to grow the commitments for the E2—there are already 590; and
- Execution for the next several years for the milestones of the E2 development.
Summary
- Customer base goal by the end of 2017;
- Customer support;
- Barriers to entry for competitors.
Airbus/Boeing duopoly single-aisle is safe well into 2030 decade
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Introduction
Dec. 28, 2014: Two challenges to the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing in the 150-220 seat single-aisle sector move forward in development in 2015, but neither is in a position to be a threat for the balance of this decade, nor even in the next.
Both challenges, the COMAC C919 from China, and the Irkut MC-21 from Russia, will for various reasons fall short of the Airbus A320/321 and Boeing 737-8/9 and plans to design the next generation new single-aisle airplane.
Summary
- The C919’s chief advantage was eliminated when Airbus and Boeing moved to reengine the A320 and 737 families.
- C919 retains pricing advantage but won’t overcome duopoly dominance.
- By the time the C919 enters service, Airbus and Boeing will have the second generation of LEAP and GTF engines available.
- The MC-21 takes into account better passenger comfort through a wider fuselage, but engines will be no better than those used on Airbus and Boeing.
- The MC-21 sales potential will be highly limited because Russia still hasn’t become a full trading partner due to political direction.