Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
Suppliers are paying more, waiting longer for aluminum and other materials
danieljcatchpole(at)gmail(dot)com
An infographic highlights the role of aluminum in commercial aircraft production. (Image via Google Images)
Oct. 3, 2018, © Leeham News: United States-based aerospace suppliers say lead times and prices have significantly increased for aluminum, steel and other high-grade materials used to make commercial and military aircraft. But, they say, they have taken the increases in stride.
Aerospace suppliers based outside the U.S. generally have been less affected by the increases in lead times and prices for high-grade aluminum and steel, which President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on in March.
Pontifications: Workforce plan for NMA to be announced soon
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 1, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The Choose Washington NMA task force said last week it will release this month recommendations for improving aerospace workforce activities in Washington.
It’s about time.
The task force was appointed by Gov. Jay Inslee to come up with a plan to persuade Boeing to choose Washington as the assembly site for its prospective New Midmarket Airplane, the NMA.
Two studies, one by the Teal Group and the other by Price Waterhouse Cooper, conclude Washington is the best aerospace cluster and location to build the NMA. The conclusions are unsurprising, given the maturity, size and scope of the cluster in Puget Sound (the greater Seattle area). No other place in the country has this level of aerospace activity.
But the reports failed to adequately address the top priority that Boeing has: the need for skilled workers and engineers.
At long last, the NMA council is getting there.
How Boeing’s T-X and NMA are connected
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 1, 2018, © Leeham News.: Boeing and its partner SAAB Thursday won a $9.2bn U.S. Air Force T-X Pilot Training contract. It was a win for its Defense, Space & Security division, yet it will have major implications for Boeing’s Commercial Airplane (BCA) division and the NMA.
The NMA will change the way Boeing develops, produces and supports airliners. The T-X is the pilot for this change.
Loose concept of the Boeing NMA. Source: The Air Current.
Summary:
- The focus of Boeing for the NMA is faster and lower cost development, cheaper production and an extended support offering.
- The Military T-X program pilots the work practices needed to make this possible.
Bjorn’s Corner: Supersonic transport revival, Part 8
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 28, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In the last Corner we started looking at the biggest challenge for an SST, the powerplant. We first discussed the most fundamental problem of the engine, the level of Ram drag for an SST engine.
Now we continue with the challenges of the Nacelle. This week we talk intakes.
Figure 1. The Concorde nacelle with its Multi-Shock inlet. Source: Google images.
What costs dominate an airliner’s operation? Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 27, 2018, © Leeham News.: Over the last week’s we have looked at the costs for a typical Mainline and LCC airline operating in the US, Europe and Asian markets. The costs have been Direct Operating Costs (DOC) for the average routes operated by these airlines.
Now we finish the series with a look at the seat-mile costs so the Narrowbody and Widebody aircraft economics can be compared on routes both can serve.
Summary:
- When comparing seat-mile operating costs between Narrowbody and Widebody aircraft one must use the same cabin standards.
- Doing so will show the apples to apples operating costs of the two types when operating on sectors out to the maximum practical range of the Narrowbodies.
Assessing 737 production rate interest to 70/mo
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Introduction
Sept. 27, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing hasn’t gone to a production rate of 57/mo for its 737 and studies have long been underway looking at a rate of not only
63/mo but also 70/mo, supply chain sources tell LNC.
Rate 57, up from 52, is scheduled for next July. Sixty-three has long been considered the maximum allowed for the current Renton (WA) factory, the sole location where commercial 737s are assembled.
But Boeing, in yet another step in its drive for more efficiencies, is analyzing how to push 70 airplanes a month through the same facility.
Summary
- MAX 8 remains the staple of the 737 family.
- MAX 10 helps family, stems bleeding, but A321 still outsells 737-9/10 by about 2:5:1.
- 9/10 MAX represent 17% of MAX backlog. A321neo is 34% of neo backlog.
- Boeing has more sales replacement potential than Airbus.
Pontifications: Time for Odds and Ends
Sept. 24, 2018, © Leeham News: This week we catch up on Odds and Ends.
Boeing catching up on 737
By Scott Hamilton
Boeing has reversed the number of 737s piling up at Renton Airport and Boeing Field and is starting to burn off the “gliders” and other aircraft plagued by traveled work.
Although some aerospace analysts came away from the investors day this month skeptical that Boeing would clear the backlog by year end, barring another hiccup of size, it looks like the company will do so.
Spirit Aerosystems said it had caught up on the delivery of fuselages while Boeing told aerospace analysts at its investors’ day this month that delays were still causing issues.
How does this conflict of information converge?
It’s a matter of sequencing the fuselages back into the system, I’m told.
Bjorn’s Corner: Supersonic transport revival, Part 7
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 21, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In the last Corner we looked at the heating of the aircraft when cruising at high Mach.
Now we will address the biggest problem for supersonic airliners, the engines and nacelles.
Figure 1. The Concorde engine and nacelle. Source: Google images.
What costs dominate an airliner’s operation? Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 13, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we looking at the costs for a typical Mainline airline in our series about the airliner cost equation. We discussed the operating costs of Mainline airlines and how these would be affected by the operating area.
Now we calculated the different costs for a Low-Cost Carrier (LCC) operating either in the US, West Europe or Asia.
Summary:
- Fuel costs are the dominant costs for an LCC, regardless of geography.
- Airport fees and crew costs are other costs which differ between LCCs, Legacy carriers and Geographies.
Assessing A320 production rate interest in >70/mo
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Introduction
Sept. 17, 2018, © Leeham News: With the supply chain under major stress and Airbus and Boeing trying to recover from scores of “gliders” sidelined at airports without engines, each company nevertheless continues to study production rate increases for the A320 and 737 families.
Airbus publicly has said it’s looking at rate 70/mo. Boeing publicly acknowledges it’s looking at rate 63/mo.
Supply chain sources tell LNC Airbus is studying an even higher rate, into the “70s,” at early as 2020—a date that most consider out of the question.
Boeing is known to be considering a rate of 70/mo for its most profitable program.
Today, LNC looks at the A320 scenario. A future post will examine the 737.
Summary
- Airbus is scheduled to deliver more A320 members in 2019 than production capacity. Some of these may be parked backlog airplanes.
- 2020-2021 sold out at rate 60/mo, 2022-2023 nearly so.
- Rate increase to 70/mo opens opportunities for Airbus, pressure on Boeing.