July 19, 2016, © Leeham Co.: If anything came out of the otherwise dull Farnborough Air Show, it was that the Middle of the Market airplane debate is as muddled as ever.
Boeing didn’t launch, or even say much, about the prospective 737-10, a slightly larger version of the MAX 9 intended to close the gap between the 9 and the Airbus A321neo. Boeing illustrates the 737-8-based MAX 200 as a separate model in its product line up. The 737-10 will slot in above the MAX 200, if built.
Boeing increased the demand in its 20-year Current Market Outlook for the small, twin-aisle airplane by 5%–a move Airbus claims is aimed at the Boeing Board of Directors to entice it to approve launch of the New Mid-range Aircraft, or NMA as Boeing now calls the MOM aircraft.
Airbus said the MOM sector ends at 240 seats (single class) and only a single-aisle airplane makes sense. This is a shift from long-standing messaging that the A321neo covers the lower end of the MOM sector and the A330-200/800 covers the upper end. This message was advanced as recently as the Airbus Innovation Days at the end of May.
With the rhetoric changing a bit, is it time to redefine the MOM sector?
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Dearth of wide-body order hang over Airbus, Boeing
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Introduction
July 25, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It wasn’t a good two weeks for wide-body airplanes.
Airbus, responding to a leak to the Paris newspaper La Tribune, confirmed it will reduce production for the A380 from 20/yr in 2017 to 12/yr in 2018—returning the program to a loss.
Boeing firmed up an MOU announced at the Paris Air Show with Volga Dnepr for 20 747-8Fs, but wouldn’t say how many are firm orders and how many are options.
Week 2: Boeing took nearly $1.7bn in after-tax write downs for the 787 and 747-8 programs.
And, while not directly tied to wide-bodies per se, Delta Air Lines announced it will reduce its trans-Atlantic services for a variety of reasons. Most of these services are performed with wide-body aircraft.
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Posted on July 25, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Leeham News and Comment, Premium
747-8, 787-10, 787-9, A350-900, A380, Airbus, American Airlines, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Emirates Airline, Volga-Dnepr
Pontifications: Boeing softens 747-8F recovery
By Scott Hamilton
July 25, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing July 21 announced it is taking an after tax charge of more than $800m against the 747-8 program. It also canceled plans to increase production of the 747-8F from the current 0.5/mo to 1/mo in 2019 on the long-held belief demand for the 8F would recover as 747-400Fs age.
In an email to LNC, a Boeing Commercial Airplanes spokesman wrote, “We have consistently said that while there is a cargo market recovery – it is not as robust as we had expected. Our new long term forecast projects cargo traffic to grow at 4.2% per year over the next two decades. But in the short term, the cargo market continues to struggle.
“The 747-8 is closely tied to the cargo market. There is an opportunity starting around 2019 when many 747-400 Freighters will be retired. Some of that replacement could go to the 747-8F, some to 777F, but some of those airplanes won’t be replaced at all. The decision we announced reduces future risk for the program and the company– and allows us to see how that replacement cycle plays out.”
With that, years of forecasts of a solid recovery for the 747-8F that ran counter to many outside Boeing was softened considerably.
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Posted on July 25, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
air force tanker, Boeing, Farnborough Air Show, Paris Air Show
747-8F, 787, Boeing, Farnborough Air Show, KC-46A, Paris Air Show, Volga-Dnepr
Bjorn’s Corner: Flight simulators
By Bjorn Fehrm
22 July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Last week at the Farnborough Air Show I had the chance to try three flight simulators: The MC-21 airliner simulator, the SAAB Gripen fighter simulator and a special simulator for testing some new 3D synthetic vision ideas for a future avionics system. I’ve now tried some dozen different aircraft simulators of different generations, not counting the PC-based ones.
The simulators were different types. Some were fixed with displays that wrapped around and covered the peripheral vision like the Irkut MC-21 and SAAB Gripen ones. Others were full motion with complete surround vision display like the Airbus A350 simulator that I trained in ahead of flying A350 MSN002 last April, Figure 1. A third type were closed full motion simulators that lacked a vision system.
Figure 1. Airbus full motion A350 simulator in Toulouse. Source: LNC
Compared with the very advanced Airbus simulator, I was surprised how realistic it felt with the simpler fixed simulators I tried last week. It made me wonder why.
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Posted on July 22, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Bjorn's Corner, Irkut, United Aircraft
Airbus, Embraer, Irkut, KC-390, MC-21, Saab, Simulators, United Aircraft
Boeing announces $2bn in new charges
“On a pretax basis at the segment level, Boeing Commercial Airplanes will now record an earnings impact totaling $2.78 billion and the Boeing Military Aircraft segment of Boeing Defense, Space & Security will report an earnings impact of $219 million,” Boeing said in a statement.
Boeing also announced that a planned production rate increase for the 747-8 from 0.5/mo to 1/mo in 2019 has been cancelled.
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Posted on July 21, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
air force tanker, Boeing
747-8, 747-8F, 787, air force tanker, Boeing, Dennis Muilenburg, KC-46A, Volga-Dnepr
Flying the Irkut MC-21 simulator
By Bjorn Fehrm
21July 2016, ©. Leeham Co:Russia’s United Aircraft Irkut division had the good taste to bring a fully functional MC-21 simulator to Farnborough Air Show. I managed to get an hour of take-offs and landings during the show’s early hours on Thursday.
The simulator consists of a fixed cockpit, Figure 1, with a panoramic screen giving a terrain view out of the cockpit windows. The terrain model was of good quality and the feeling of flying a good non-moving simulator was there.
Figure 1. United Aircraft’s MC-21 exhibition simulator. Source: LNC
The simulator was especially conceived for exhibitions but it didn’t seem to be less functional because of that. Flight laws should be the same as the full MC-21 simulators but the implementation team is separate from the team which is making the flight crew training simulators. I was accompanied in the Sim by Sergey, one of the software programmers of the simulator. He was interested in my impressions, as it was still relatively early days in the simulator’s design.
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Posted on July 21, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Irkut, Pratt & Whitney, United Aircraft, YAK
GTF, Irkut, MC-21, Pratt & Whitney, PW GTF, UAC
Interview with Rob Dewar: CSeries in service reliability
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
21July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier”s CSeries project has passed one hurdle after another during its development. The last one was the lack of Marquee customers on top of launch customer SWISS. This has now been solved with large orders from Air Canada and Delta Air Lines.
There is one hurdle remaining: what will be the aircraft’s reliability when it enters into service (EIS)?. We did the EIS interview with CSeries VP and program manager Rob Dewar only two days before the CS100 aircraft would fly its first operational sectors with Swiss last Friday. This autumn, airBaltic will put the larger CS300 into service.
Figure 1. Bombardier’s program manager for the CSeries, Rob Dewar. Source: Bombardier
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Posted on July 21, 2016 by Bjorn Fehrm
Bombardier, CSeries, Delta Air Lines, Pratt & Whitney, Premium
Air Canada, AirBaltic, Bombardier, CS100, CS300, CSeries, Delta Air Lines, GTF, Pratt & Whitney, Swiss
Boeing KC-46A completes Milestone C
Boeing KC-46A refueling Boeing C-17. Photo via Boeing. Click on image to enlarge.
July 20, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing and the USAF last week announced that the KC-46A tanker successfully completed Milestone C in the refueling flight testing program.
The KC-46A completed refueling of five aircraft, a requirement under Milestone C: the F16, F18, AV8B Harrier, A10 Warthog and the C17. Additionally, the KC-46A itself was refueled from a Boeing KC-10.
The C17 previously proved to be a problem when aerodynamics for the refueling boom revealed more stress than was permissible.
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102 Comments
Posted on July 20, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
air force tanker, Boeing
air force tanker, Boeing, KC-46A
Weekly analyst synopsis: Farnborough recap
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Posted on July 20, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, B/E Aerospace, Boeing, Farnborough Air Show, Middle of the Market
Airbus, Bernstein Research, Boeing, Buckingham Research, Farnborough Air Show, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Middle of the Market, MOM, Morgan Stanley
Farnborough redefines the MOM sector
Boeing didn’t launch, or even say much, about the prospective 737-10, a slightly larger version of the MAX 9 intended to close the gap between the 9 and the Airbus A321neo. Boeing illustrates the 737-8-based MAX 200 as a separate model in its product line up. The 737-10 will slot in above the MAX 200, if built.
Boeing increased the demand in its 20-year Current Market Outlook for the small, twin-aisle airplane by 5%–a move Airbus claims is aimed at the Boeing Board of Directors to entice it to approve launch of the New Mid-range Aircraft, or NMA as Boeing now calls the MOM aircraft.
With the rhetoric changing a bit, is it time to redefine the MOM sector?
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45 Comments
Posted on July 19, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Farnborough Air Show, Middle of the Market
737-10, 737-300, 737-8, 737-9, 767-200, A321NEO, A330-200, A330-300, A330-800, A330-900, Airbus, Boeing, Farnborough Air Show, John Leahy, Middle of the Market, MOM
Airbus’ Leahy shifts a bit on MOM aircraft
Introduction
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John Leahy, Airbus COO-Customers. Airbus photo.
July 14, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: Basking on an order for 30 A321LRs on the final day of the Farnborough Air Show, Airbus’ top salesman said the Middle of the Market sector stops at 240 passengers and it’s best served by a single-aisle aircraft.
John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer-Customers, said twin-aisle aircraft down to 240 or even 220 passengers don’t work economically against a single aisle. The A321LR (Long Range) seats a maximum of 240 passengers and it is single-aisle. Even though Airbus has a 250-seat A330-200R (Regional) and an A330-800 (7,200nm-plus range), Leahy didn’t attempt make a case that these aircraft are suitable for the MOM sector.
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Posted on July 18, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Farnborough Air Show, Middle of the Market, Premium
737-7, 767-200, 787-10, 787-3, 787-8, 787-9, A300, A310, A321LR, A321NEO, A330-200, A330-200R, A330-300, A330-800, A350-2000, A380, Airbus, Boeing, John Leahy, Middle of the Market, MOM, New Mid-range Aircraft, NMA
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