Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
Worries increase over Middle Eastern airlines
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Introduction
Aug. 28, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Market sources are increasingly pointing to weakness in the Middle East airline sphere as a threat to existing Airbus and Boeing
Emirates Airline holds the future of the Airbus A380 in its hand, so-to-speak. Source: Emirates.
orders.
Emirates Airline, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways are the Top 3 of Boeing’s Top 10 wide-body customers.
These three also represent 73% of Boeing’s 777X order backlog.
Qatar and Etihad are the Nos. 2 and 3 wide-body customers at Airbus (after AirAsiaX); Emirates has slipped to No. 8.
The financial trouble at Etihad, exacerbated by its poor investments in the now-bankrupt Alitalia Airlines and AirBerlin, have been well documented.
Emirates’ profits have fallen dramatically and is facing over-capacity. Qatar Airways is now isolated by intra-geopolitical events.
Summary
- Emirates and Etihad already deferred Boeing orders.
- Lessors beginning to express concerns.
- Customer concentration for 777X worries some.
- A380 future rests largely with Emirates.
Pontifications: Jets took 30 years to match piston efficiency
The Douglas DC-6B was considered the finest, most efficient and most reliable of the piston engine airliners. Photo via Google.
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 28, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airline officials want their airplanes to sip fuel and the engine and airframe manufacturers work mightily to shave even 1% off of consumption.
The Airbus A320neo, Boeing 737 MAX, A330neo, A350 and 787 all made big strides in cutting fuel costs.
Bombardier’s CSeries, Embraer’s EJet-E2, the Mitsubishi MRJ and even the COMAC C919 and Irkut MC-21 are touted to be double-digit more fuel efficient than the jets these are intended to replace.
Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, CFM and GE Aviation spend billions of dollars developing engines that drive the fuel efficiencies sought by the airlines. After all, typically airframe improvements only account for about 5% of fuel reductions. Engines account for 15% or more.
It took 30 years for the most fuel efficient jets matched the fuel efficiency of the best piston airliners from the 1950s, according a recent presentation by AeroDynamics Advisory at the ADSE conference at the Abbotsford Air Show early this month.
Two short hops or one long for LCC long-range?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We presented WOW Air yesterday, a long-range LCC which is using its Reykjavik, Iceland, hub to fly passengers over the Atlantic in two shorter hops instead of one long one.
It allows WOW Air to operate with single aisle A320 family aircraft instead of the classical long-range widebodies. But is it a more economical way of flying? The distance over the hub is longer than if flying direct, Figure 1.
Figure 1. Distances when flying Berlin-Chicago direct or over Reykjavik. Source: Great Circle Mapper.
We use our performance model to understand if two shorter hops with an Airbus A321 is a lower cost alternative to flying passengers direct with an Airbus A330.
Summary:
- What is the most economical way to fly? Two shorter hops with an A321or one longer with the A330?
- Our airline performance model gives the answer. We calculate fuel burn and compares Cash Operating Costs (COC) using WOW Air as example.
WOW Air, the well placed long-haul LCC
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 23, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: WOW Air is the smallest LCC to offer long-haul services over the Atlantic. And it’s the best-placed.
AirAsia X’s CEO explained its early problems with flying long-haul LCC. It was flying too far. Ideal is sectors shorter than seven hours. Fly longer and aircraft/crew utilization suffers. You can only do one turn a day.
With a placement at Reykjavik, Iceland, WOW Air can collect traffic at six hours or less from both sides of the Atlantic. It then connects them over its hub in the middle.
Fgiure 1. WOW Air’s founder, owner and CEO, Skuli Mogensen, in front of a WOW Air Airbus A321. Source: WOW Air.
Airbus looks to increase, US, Canada spending
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Introduction
Aug. 21, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus continues its drive to purchase goods from suppliers outside Europe, encouraging development of an aerospace cluster around its new Mobile (AL) plant.
Washington State, the home to arch-rival Boeing, has moved up slightly as a major supplier to Airbus.
Canadian suppliers now sell $1.4bn in goods and services to Airbus.
LNC met with Joe Marcheschi, the director of strategic procurement for Airbus Americas, on the sidelines of the ADSE conference at the Abbotsford Air Show Aug. 12.
Summary
- Mobile aerospace cluster doesn’t have to include huge facilities.
- Striving for environmentally friendly approach.
- Growth at Mobile will come from production rate increases.
Pontifications: DAE acquires AWAS, moves up in lessor status
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 21, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Commercial aviation in the Middle East may be having its severe challenges right now, but over the weekend a major step forward took place.
Dubai Aerospace Enterprises over the weekend completed its acquisition of lessor AWAS. The combined companies will do business under the name DAE Capital.
It’s a milestone for both companies.
CSeries, the long-ranger for thin routes
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: At the end of 2014, we predicted the Boeing 737 MAX 8 would be used by LCCs to open new long-range destinations. And sure enough, the fourth MAX 8 off the line went to Norwegian Air Shuttle, for trans-Atlantic operations.
The Bombardier CSeries launch of operations from London City Airport last week gave us the chance to discuss CSeries long-range characteristics with Rob Dewar, VP CSeries program at Bombardier.
With the improved performance data to be announced, the CS300 will pass the range of the MAX 8.
To understand with what margin and costs we feed our performance model with the latest information.
Summary:
- At an equivalent load (standard 2 class or HD cabins) the CS300 flies further than the 737 MAX 8.
- It will transport about 30 fewer passengers, in higher comfort and at lower trip costs.
- The seat mile costs will be only slightly higher than the 737 MAX 8.
Air Berlin files for bankruptcy
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 16, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Air Berlin, Germany’s second largest airline, with 85 destinations, 8,000 employees and 72 aircraft, filed for bankruptcy yesterday.
We wrote about Air Berlin’s problems in October last year and we’ve covered its part owner, partner and moneylender, Etihad Airways, in articles this year.
It was the latter that no longer believed in Air Berlin’s turnaround plan and stopped the money flow.
Pontifications: Avolon sees strong sales for Boeing 737-10
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 14, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Avolon, one of the world’s largest aircraft lessors following the acquisition of the CIT Aerospace portfolio, believes Boeing will see 2,000 of the 737-10—doubling the internal figure Boeing used to launch the program.
In a new white paper, which Avolon periodically issues, the lessor “projects that the MAX 10 will account for approximately 20% of all 737 MAX family deliveries, which would equate to around 2,000 aircraft. This compares to the A321neo, which is forecast to account for 40% of the A320neo family, with over 4,000 deliveries,” writes Steve Mason, Avolon’s SVP of Strategy.
Mason joined Avolon from CIT acquisition, where he held a similar position and likewise issued periodic white papers.
“The value proposition of the MAX 9 has been impacted by the launch of the MAX 10. It is unclear what role remains for the aircraft, but it is likely to have a limited future,” Mason writes.
Boeing’s tactical option for MOM sector
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Aug. 14, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s not a done deal yet—the business for the so-called Boeing 797 remains a challenge. But the consensus is that Boeing will launch the program next year, for an entry-into-service around 2025.
Boeing 797 concept. Source: Boeing.
Yet there are airlines that say they don’t want to wait that long for a new airplane.
What are their choices?
Read more
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Posted on August 14, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
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