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Introduction
ATR and Bombardier are incumbents. China has a home-market offering.
Indonesia and India want to create a product.
It’s the 60-seat and up turbo-prop market.
It’s too many companies chasing too-small a market.
Summary
Posted on November 23, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
Sep. 21 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Comparing and evaluating operational and economic performance of competing airliners is a complex task that requires analysis of thousands of parameters.
It’s not unknown for smaller airlines to have limited capability to undertake these difficult analyses. Accordingly, they often rely on the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) for their analysis on behalf of the potential customer.
Unfortunately, the OEM’s have little incentive to provide an unbiased view of either their products nor those of their competitors.
Thorough evaluations require quite some preparations. If these preparations are not carried out correctly, the result can be biased to the extent that the evaluation method dictates which’s the best aircraft and not the most suitability aircraft for the task. We will in a series of articles cover how aircraft evaluations are done and how evaluation pitfalls can be avoided.
Summary:
Posted on September 21, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 15. 2015, C. Leeham Co: ATR said its turboprop product has broken a barrier that was thought impossible for regional turboprops at its Paris Air Show press briefing today. It was a company telling about being in a strong market and enjoying a market leading position. ATR sold its 1500th aircraft to Japan Airlines Commuter (JAC), the regional daughter of Japan Airlines. JAC signed for eight ATR 42 to replace the Saab 340 fleet. JAC also holds options for a further 15 aircraft. The order was the first for ATR aircraft to Japan.
ATR, which is owned 50:50 by Airbus and Finmeccanica of Italy with headquarters in Toulouse, is dominating the under 90 seat worldwide turboprop market. ATR said that it will unveil business for 46 aircraft during the air show with 35 options as it continues to dominate the world market for turboprops which seats up to 90 passengers. ATR claims it has controlled 77% of the market since 2010 to date and that its customer base during that time was 51 customers versus nearest competitor’s 24.
Posted on June 16, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. It could be called the Qatar Airways Air Show.
Qatar Airways plans to have five airliners on display at the Paris Air Show in two weeks: the Airbus A319, A320, A350, A380 and the Boeing 787. The carrier hasn’t announced whether it will provide an aerial display as it has at previous air shows, but Qatar may well have more airliners there than Airbus or Boeing.
As for manufacturers other than Airbus and Boeing, we don’t expect anything of consequence from these.
Summary
Posted on June 1, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, Embraer, Emirates Airlines, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Paris Air Show, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi
787, A319, A320, A350, A380, Airbus, ATR, Boeing, CFM, Comac, Emirates Airlines, Engine Alliance, GE Engines, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Paris Air Show, Pratt & Whitney, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce, Suhkoi, Tim Clark
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Introduction
April 5, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Pratt & Whitney Canada (PWC) continues to develop the next generation turbo prop engine despite little interest from Bombardier for a replacement for its slow-selling Q400 or from Airbus, 50% owner of ATR, dominant producer of this type of aircraft.
Maria Della Posta, SVP of sales and marketing, said PWC is confident demand will prevail over the current lack of interest to see a new airplane program launched as early as 2016 or 2017–though she hedges that this could slip a year or two.
Summary
Posted on April 5, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
March 19, 2015: C. Leeham Co. Bombardier’s current challenges don’t end with the CSeries. The company has seen its once-dominate positions in the regional jet and turbo prop markets decline precipitously.
The CRJ struggles in its sales against the Embraer E-Jet. The Q400’s market share of the turbo prop sector has declined to a mere 10% of the backlog vs ATR.
Still, Ross Mitchell, vice president of Business Acquisition and Commercial Aircraft for Bombardier, gave a spirited defense and upbeat outlook of both products during last week’s ISTAT conference in Phoenix. In a one-on-one interview the next day, we posed a series of questions about the CRJ and the Q400. Today’s report is about the Q400. Tomorrow’s will be about the CRJ.
Posted on March 19, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
March 3, 2015, c. Leeham Co: ATR, the turbo-prop OEM 50% owned by Airbus and 50% by Finmeccanica, wants to develop a new airplane to replace the venerable ATR 42/72 series that entered service in 1985 and 1989 respectively..
Airbus, as half owner, has the power to block the plan–and it has, saying that because ATR has 85%-90% of the market, a new airplane isn’t needed.
Despite this huge market share, ATR CEO Patrick de Castelbajac says ATR doesn’t “own” the market. The need for a larger, 90-seat turbo-prop mirrors an industry trend toward up-gauging and the ATR 72 has been stretched probably as far as it can go, says de Castelbajac.
But if Airbus isn’t on board, development of a new airplane isn’t possible, he says.
Posted on March 3, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
15 Feb 2015: In Part 1 of this article series we started comparing the alternatives available for turboprop short haul services in the 70 seat segment; ATR72-600 and Bombardier Q400. We also included the closest regional jet, CRJ700 from Bombardier, to compare costs and see where a jet would be needed to keep trip times within reason.
In Part 1 we went through the capacity of the aircraft and their basic characteristics. We also did a first check of their typical fuel consumption on a standard mission of 300 nautical miles.
We will now look closer at the economics of the aircraft; we fly them over different sectors with different speed profiles. We will also dissect their Cash Operating Costs (COC) and Direct Operating Cost (DOC). Having done all this we will look at the crossover points; for what market is ATR72 the choice and where does Q400 fit. And finally, what route sectors require a jet?
Summary:
Posted on February 15, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
As the market prepares for Bombardier’s 2014 year end earnings call tomorrow, CEO Pierre Beaudoin has his work cut out for him to restore confidence among the airlines and lessors who have ordered the CSeries and who might.
The abrupt departure last month of yet another aerospace sales chief, Ray Jones, is the third top executive to leave within a short time. Gary Scott resigned as CEO of the Aerospace unit for personal reasons. Chet Fuller, Scott’s successor, left after his three year contract wasn’t renewed. Jones followed Fuller out the door after 13 months. Guy Hachey, president of the aerospace unit, left in a corporate reorganization of the unit.
Key people is sales and marketing also departed after Jones took over. Philippe Poutissou, VP-Marketing, was unceremoniously ousted as Jones wanted his own team. Rod Sheridan, Vice President Commercial Aircraft Customer Finance, left and joined Nordic Aviation as vice chairman. There has been turnover in the sales force as well.
Summary
Posted on February 11, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
08 Feb 2015: Passenger traffic is growing the world over on a regional, domestic and international level. For domestic and international airlines the choice of mainline transport aircraft is clear today: there are only two vendors, Boeing and Airbus, and they produce similar products.
For regional transportation there is more choice. First of all, one can chose type of aircraft, turboprop or jet. Within jet, there are several OEMs that are active. The choice in turboprop is more restricted. In practice, the choice stands between the classical turboprop with ATR and a faster type from Bombardier, the Q400 “Prop-Jet” as it is called, as its speed lands between the classical turboprop and regional jet.
The question is, what are the real differences between them in terms of design, passenger comfort and economics and what is the right choice for a market segment? We will take a deeper look into this by analyzing the ATR72 as the classical turboprop, the Bombardier Q400 as the Prop-Jet and CRJ700 as the regional jet.
Summary:
Posted on February 8, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm