Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: Alabama loses key committee slot in US Senate following election
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 18, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The special US Senate election last week in Alabama drew world attention of the showdown between Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Roy Moore.
Jones eked out a victory, becoming the first Democrat in 25 years to be elected to the Senate from Alabama.
I’m not going to get into all the issues, allegations and political implications of this race. Instead, a new item from Defense News caught my eye about the implications to the Alabama aerospace position in Congress.
Defense News’ headline is eye-catching: “Election leaves Alabama-shaped hole on Senate Armed Services Committee.”
Assessing the Delta-Airbus order
In an event timely to the Delta Air Lines order for 100+100 Airbus A3231neos, the airline just took delivery of the 50th A320 family member to be delivered from the Airbus Mobile (AL) plant. Source: Airbus.
By Scott Hamilton
Analysis
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Was the choice by Delta Air Lines the big “blow” to Boeing many in the media are making it out to be?
It was a PR blow, yes. Even this was limited to those in the know.
But it wasn’t a material blow by any stretch.
Here’s why the hand-wringers are wrong.
Top Airbus officials scoffed at Leahy’s 50% market share goal
John Leahy, the chief operating officer-customers for Airbus, will retire in January after 33 years with the company. LNC’s editor, Scott Hamilton, has known Leahy for most of this time. This is the second of a series of reports derived from interviewing Leahy about his pending retirement. The first article appeared Nov. 28.
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 14, 2017, © Leeham Co.: When John Leahy was promoted from his position as head of Airbus sales in North America and moved to headquarters in Toulouse,
John Leahy, COO-Customers Airbus. Reuters photo via Google images.
France, to assume the world-wide position as head of sales, he had an ambitious goal to achieve 50% market share by 2000.
He had a little over five years to go from low-double digits to this lofty goal.
The Airbus executive board initially laughed at him, Leahy recalls 22 years later.
Delta Airbus deal means Bombardier trade complaint continues
Dec. 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Delta Air Lines chose to place its long-awaited order for the re-engined single-aisle airplanes with Airbus for the A321neo, powered by Pratt & Whitney GTF engines, according to an exclusive report from CNN’s Jon Ostrower.
The Delta Board of Directors was expected to decide today, announcing its decision either today or tomorrow at the investors’ day event.
If confirmed, the deal is a major loss for Boeing, which hoped to sell the 737-10 MAX to Delta. A win would have been a huge boost for the MAX 10.
Used A330-200s could be interim solution to NMA
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Introduction
Dec. 11, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing is considering restarting the 767-300ER passenger line as an interim aircraft to the New Midmarket Airplane.
Airbus is pushing the A330-800 or, alternative, new A330-200s are its solution to the upper end of the Middle of the Market sector.
There is another alternative, however: used A330-200s. There is an emerging supply of these as one airline plans a down-sizing and initial 10- to 12-year leases expire in the near future.
Etihad is planning to dispose of its Airbus A330-200s. These would make a good, potential pick-up by an airline seeking an interim solution while awaiting the New Midrange Aircraft. Photo via Google images.
Summary
- NMA EIS target remains 2025, Boeing says, as opposed to 2027, according to market sources.
- Regardless, timeline, production ramp-up indicates near-term need for newer airplanes.
- Business case for NMA still hasn’t closed; program launch still uncertain, but activities continue.
- Boeing 767 production ramp up studies underway, effective as soon as early 2020.
Pontifications: Countdown to Delta’s single-aisle decision
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 11, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Eyes will watch Atlanta (GA) this week, when the Delta Air Lines Board of Directors decides to award a big order for the re-engined Airbus and Boeing single aisle airplanes.
The Board meeting is believed to be Thursday. At stake: 100 orders and 100 options for either the Airbus A320neo or Boeing 737 MAX families.
I wrote about this last week. Here’s an update.
Read more
Airbus’ strategy for the A330-800
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The A330-800 entered the final assembly line last week at the Airbus production plant in Toulouse, France, amid doubts in the industry that the airplane will be produced beyond the prototype.
The first A330-800 is on the Final Assembly Line at Airbus. Source: Airbus.
There is only one order for the sub-type, six from Hawaiian Airlines—and Hawaiian is expected to cancel the order. The airline is running a competition between the Airbus A350-900 and the Boeing 787-8/9, according to market intelligence.
Boeing moves EIS target for NMA to 2027: sources
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Introduction
Dec. 4, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Officially, Boeing says the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, or 797) entry-into-service will be around 2024-25 if the program is launched.
LNC has learned the target date now being discussed is 2027.
Boeing 797 concept. Source: Boeing.
This means the 737 replacement likewise slips, with EIS after 2030 instead of late next decade or in 2030.
The new NMA target date, which we’ve heard from the supply chain and customer base, gives further impetus to the prospect of restarting the 767-300ER passenger production, a decision that is supposed to be made by the end of this year.
Summary
- Technology is at the heart of the new target EIS for the NMA.
- The 737 replacement was always intended to follow the NMA.
- Supply chain asked for 767 production rate ramp-up feasibility.