Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
- Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash June 13, 2025
Airbus-Bombardier CSeries deal means no tariffs on US-assembled aircraft, says CEO
Oct. 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The stunning Airbus-Bombardier partnership for the CSeries program guarantees the future of the new airplane, kills off the A319 and thrusts a big stick up Boeing’s tailpipe.
Boeing won big victories in its trade complaint filed with the US government, winning 300% tariffs on every CSeries imported into the US, throwing into doubt a big deal with Delta Air Lines for up to 125 aircraft.
Trump decertifies Iran nuke deal, throws Airbus, Boeing orders in doubt
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Introduction
Oct. 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: President Donald Trump announced Friday he will decertify the Iran nuclear deal, throwing into doubt a host of related commercial deals, including huge aircraft orders.
Iran Air Airbus A330. Photo via Google.
Trump hasn’t gone so far as to withdraw from the pact, but he still threatens to do so unless Congress makes changes he wants.
Here in the US, focus is, of course, on the commitment by Iran for Boeing aircraft—none of which are firm contracts, but “commitments” to order.
Of less focus here, if any, is on the outstanding orders placed by Iran for Airbus and ATR aircraft, which are subject to US licensing.
Summary
- 30 Boeing 777s, including 15 Classics are at stake.
- 50 Boeing 737 MAXes to Iran Air and 30 to Iran Asesman are also at stake.
- ATR has 11 aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2018.
- Airbus sold 114 A320s/321s, A330s and A350s to Iran Air. A few white tails already have been delivered.
US declared Bombardier impeded trade probe, uncooperative and found dumping as a result
Oct. 10, 2017: The US Department of Commerce concluded Bombardier was uncooperative, didn’t answer its questions and impeded the trade investigation in the Boeing complaint.
Accordingly, under US law, Commerce could draw negative conclusions toward Bombardier and found it “guilty” (our word) of violating anti-dumping laws in its sale of the CS100 to Delta Air Lines.
Boeing’s Bold Ambition, Part 2
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Introduction
Oct. 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: When Boeing launched the 787 program in 2003, an after-market maintenance program called Gold Care followed.
It wasn’t successful. Few customers signed up for it.
Stan Deal, CEO of Boeing Global Services.
But the lessons learned are important for Boeing’s drive to vastly expand its presence in the global commercial airplane after-market business.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes and Boeing Defense, Space & Security (and the latter’s predecessor, Integrated Defense Systems) provided services to the airlines, lessors and government customers, but now there is a dedicated business unit.
Boeing Global Services was announced nearly one year ago, on Nov. 21. When Boeing reports its third quarter earnings at the end of this month, for the first time revenues and profits for BGS and its predecessors will be a line-item in the earnings statements.
Stan Deal, the CEO of BGS, acknowledged the poor start of Gold Care in an interview with LNC. But from this unhappy experience, Boeing learned what officials hope lays the foundation of a new, robust business.
Summary
- 787 Gold Care didn’t start out well.
- Gold Care is rejigged and rebranded.
- BGS services Airbus aircraft, too.
Bjorn’s Corner: Laminar flow aircraft, Part 2.
October 06, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We introduced the Airbus “Blade” laminar flow research program in the last Corner. Now we continue to look into what this research is all about.
We will explain the difference between laminar and turbulent flow (really, laminar and turbulent “boundary layer” flow) and discuss some of the work that has been done with laminar flow structures.
Figure 1. The “Blade” equipped A340-300. Source: Airbus.
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Airbus preparing to hike A350 production rate
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Introduction
Oct. 5, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus is gearing up to increase the production rate of the A350 from 2018’s planned 10/mo to 13/mo, perhaps as early as the following
year, LNC has learned.
The move follows Boeing’s announcement in September that it will increase the production of the 787 from the current 12/mo to 14/mo in 2019.
Airbus is producing the A330 at a rate of 6/mo.
American hopeful Trump Administration will take on Mid-East 3 airlines
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Introduction
Oct. 2, 2017, © Leeham Co., Grapevine (TX): American Airlines officials dodged commenting about the specifics of the Boeing-Bombardier trade dispute when asked about it at the investors/media day last week in this Dallas suburb.
Instead, the general counsel, Steve Johnson, offered up only a general statement supporting the Trump Administration’s hard line on trade.
The reason for this generality is obvious: American, along with Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, is engaged in its own trade war and needs support from the Administration.
AA, DL and UA are battling Big Three airlines from the Middle East over being subsidized and abusing Open Skies treaties. The US carriers want Trump to knock down the ME3, Emirates Airlines, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways.
Oddly, no question was asked of the American officials about the current state of the battle during the day.
LNC asked American CEO Doug Parker about the issue following the event, however.
Summary
- Recent meeting with US was encouraging.
- No commitment yet from Trump Administration.
- Market conditions don’t matter to ME3, American says
Monarch ceases operations
Oct. 1, 2017, (c) Leeham Co.: Monarch Airlines ceased operations today (Oct. 2 in the UK) when its operating license was withdrawn and an Administrator appointed, the BBC reported.
Monarch Airlines Airbus A320. BBC photo via Google images.
The airline has 32 Boeing 737-8 MAXes on order. It operated a fleet of 34 Airbus A320s/A321s. Principal lessors are AerCap and Aviation Capital Group, according to the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker.
Given the current trade war between Boeing and Bombardier, there may be a sigh of relief in Montreal. Boeing beat out Bombardier in winning the MAX 8 order against the CS300 in 2014.