Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing MOM airliner; market coverage
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
12 April, 2015: In our study of the options for Boeing’s market study called Middle of the Market (MOM), we could conclude that the most likely aircraft to cover their 200-250 seat 4750nm range requirement would be a seven abreast twin aisle aircraft using their patented new oval construction, thereby saving weight and drag.
After finishing the series, Readers requested that we conclude the work by showing what market segment a family of such airliners would cover and how they would relate to the Boeing 787-8. As it is pretty straight forward to see with our aircraft performance model how much of a range of aircraft variants one can make from one base development of aircraft and engine, we decided to fulfill the wish from our Readers.
We have therefore looked at how far the concept MOM airliner could be stretched and what segment in the market would be covered by it. We also studied how much such a family would encroach on Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner market.
Summary
- A base design such as our proposed MOM dual aisle airliner can typically cover a market of 30-40 seat increments per model.
- Limiting factors are the base models wing area and span, together with engine sizing. Much depends on the engine’s stretch capability.
- A MOM airliner family would compete with the 787-8 for short- and mid-haul traffic, there presenting a more economical alternative. The Dreamliner would have long-haul for itself.
Airbus to tout economy “Choice” at Hamburg interiors show
April 8, 2015: Airbus will unveil a new concept at the international Hamburg interiors convention next week call “Choice” for the economy cabin.
The concept is intended to further segment the traveling public demand and increase revenue for airlines.
Chris Emerson, SVP-Marketing, Airbus. Photo: Airbus.
While the concept isn’t entirely new—it’s a four-class configuration, including business class, and some airlines are moving in this direction already—Airbus is formalizing the marketing concept, which officials believe give it a competitive advantage over Boeing’s wide-body products.
The Choice concept includes Budget Economy, Comfort Economy, Premium Economy and Business Class.
Christopher Emerson, Senior Vice President-Marketing, said that 10% of Airbus operators use maximum capacity in the Airbus wide-body fleet vs 60% for Boeing’s wide-bodies. This gives Airbus operators flexibility to configure cabins in a way to cater to different passenger demands and maximize revenue, he said. Read more
2030 decade airplanes need new shapes for better efficiency
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Now open to all readers.
Introduction
April 6, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The next 15 years may well be the last new airplane programs of major airliners that look like today’s tube-and-wing aircraft because demands for new efficiency will require go beyond what engines can do within a reasonable size, says Alan Epstein, VP of technology and environment at Pratt & Whitney.
- Part 1 of our interview with Alan Epstein looked at the next new airplane, the Middle of the Market aircraft (MOM). Today’s Part 2 looks beyond MOM (and it’s not DAD).
Major changes to the airframe will have to provide added efficiency gains in combination with new and evolving technology from today’s engines.
The next new airplane, the so-called Middle of the Market (MOM) aircraft, will look like today’s airplanes. The next plane after that, the replacements for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families, will probably be the last iterations of the planes of today. After that, new designs are likely to emerge, Epstein says.
Summary
- Tomorrow’s airplanes need to revise the fuselage design to increase efficiency.
- Airplanes after 2030 may look different than the tube-and-wing configurations of the past decades.
- Four engine airplanes may make a return.
Pontifications: Meet the “A320neo MAX 195”
By Scott Hamilton
April 6, 2015: There is a saying in America: keeping up with the Joneses.
This means that if your neighbor buys something, you have to go buy something similar to “keep up.”
In the case of commercial aviation, Keeping Up with the Jones has been an international past time for decades. Boeing developed the 247. Douglas developed the DC-2. Douglas developed the DC-4. Lockheed developed the Constellation. The DC-6 begot an improved Connie which prompted the DC-7 which in turn prompted the 1649 Connie. Boeing developed the 707 and Douglas the DC-8. And so it goes today, with the tit-for-tat between Airbus and Boeing.
So the latest: Boeing 737 Max 200, meet the Airbus “A320 Max 195.” Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Lighter fuselage materials and what they bring
April 02, 2015; There is different information whether Boeing will adopt new Aluminum Lithium based alloys for the fuselage of the up and coming 777X, our latest info is that this is not yet decided.
In this corner we will look at what is at stake should Boeing go the route of new materials or not. It will discuss what is to consider when choosing materials like Aluminium Lithium (AlLi) or Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic (CFRP) for aircraft structures, especially for fuselage structures which has many conflicting requirements.
We will see that aircraft fuselages are tricky to make light and that a stronger material not necessarily means weight gains.
Pratt & Whitney looks to MOM and beyond-Part 1
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Introduction
April 2, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: Even as Pratt & Whitney prepares for the entry-into-service of its new
Alan Epstein, vice president of technology and environment, Pratt & Whitney
Geared Turbo Fan engine on the Airbus A320neo, it’s looking ahead to the most likely all new airplane that could be launched as early as 2018 with an EIS in 2025: the Middle of the Market (MOM) airplane, also most popularly known the as Boeing 757 replacement.
Except that this new airplane really isn’t a 757 replacement, but one that is more accurately a replacement for the Boeing 767-200 or the Airbus A300: a twin aisle, 250 passenger airplane with 4,000nm-5,000nm range.
Alan Epstein, vice president of technology and environment for Pratt & Whitney, believe a derivative of the GTF will be on this new airplane.
Summary
- The next new airplane will be lighter and capable of using smaller engines than those used on the 767-200 and A300.
- The MOM will look much like today’s tube-and-wing airplanes.
- The GTF by then will be 8%-10% more efficient than today’s GTF.
- Geared engines will become more common.
Pratt & Whitney: material considerations in next generation of engines
April 1, 2015:
- Panel discussion on Manufacturing and Product Technology at the Pratt & Whitney Media Days.
Ed Colvin (EC), VP, New Product Development and Introduction, Alcoa
Lynn Gambrill (LG), PW Chief Engineer, Manufacturing Engineering and Global Services.
Frank Preli (FP), PW Chief Engineer, Materials and Processes Engineering.
Jimmy Kenyon (JK), PW next-generation fighter engine general manager.
JK: We are seeing years of investment and technology starting to deliver new products and technology to the market (referring to the GTF): double digit fuel efficiency, 75% noise reduction. 20 years of technology investment. There are advancements in the engine core. At same time ramping up F35 engine. This is the world’s most powerful fighter engine but at the same time can adapt to vertical takeoff and landing. Read more
Pratt & Whitney at inflection point
April 1, 2015:
- We’re at the Pratt & Whitney Media Days today and tomorrow. We’ll be posting running information in our usual format of paraphrased synopses for such events.
This is PW’s 90th year.
Panel Discussion: “Big Data”
Lynn Fraga (LF), analytics manager in PW Services Group.
Larry Volz (LV), VP and chief information officer.
Matthew Bromberg (MB), president of PW aftermarket unit, providing MRO services, parts customer support.
MB: Big Data is a buzzword in the industry that has mixed connotations and emotions. PW has been in data monitoring business for decades. 13,000 engines have monitoring systems. We are accelerating and doubling down on a challenging path going forward. Read more
Bombardier CS300 analysis vs A319neo, 737-7
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 29, 2015, c. Leeham Co: Bombardier’s big bet in the aeronautics sector, CSeries, is well into flight testing, now more than half way toward the 2,400 hours required by Transport Canada before certification can be granted. The first aircraft to be certified will be the smaller 110 seat CS100 but the market is most interested in the larger 135 seat CS300, which has 63% of present orders and commitments, Figure 1.
Figure 1. Cseries largest model, CS300. Source: Bombardier.
Bombardier’s new CEO, Alan Bellemare, told reporters last week that the CS100 would be certified during 2015 with entry into service slipping into 2016. The CS300, which is a direct challenger to Airbus’ A319neo and Boeing’s 737-7, should follow six months after CS100. With the CS300 in flight testing and going into service next summer, we decided to have a deeper look at CS300 and its competitors.
Summary
- A319 and 737-7 are shrinks of the market’s preferred models, A320 and 737-8, and as such not the most efficient models.
- The CS300 is the series center-point and it shows. The modern design beats the Airbus and Boeing designs on most counts.
- Part of the modern concepts in CSeries is the well-conceived Pratt & Whitney PW1000G geared turbofan.
- PW’s 73 in fan version of the PW1000G for CSeries is slightly less efficient that the 81 in version for A319neo but CS300 lower weight makes sure this is more than compensated for.