COMAC C919, first analysis

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

Nov. 04, 2015, ©. Leeham Co: COMAC rolled out China’s first modern airliner Monday. We have commented on its place in the market in a sister article. Here we will do a first analysis of its competitiveness compared to the established aircraft in the 150 to 200 seat single aisle segment.

The C919 is an aircraft which resembles another airliner which is assembled in China, the Airbus A320. Many think it is a carbon copy. While many dimensions and solutions are similar, there is enough original thinking on the aircraft to give China credit for having created their own first mainline airliner.

China is going the safe way and staying away from exotic solutions. Designing close to the most modern aircraft in this size bracket is no fault, it’s being prudent. There is no prior knowledge how to do such an aircraft in the country and the A320 is not a bad model. How good is the final result? We do a first analysis with our proprietary aircraft model and check if COMAC’s claim of 5% better aerodynamics than A320 and lower operating costs holds water.

Summary:

  • The C919 has the shape of an A320neo but with more modern nose and wingtips.
  • It is slightly longer than the A320 and has therefore one seat row more in the cabin.
  • COMAC has sensibly stayed with a fully conventional build-up of the aircraft. It has enough on its plate to learn the ropes of getting a mainline single aisle aircraft through flight testing and certification
  • The classical build and slightly larger dimension make for a heavier aircraft than A320neo. We check if its more modern wing can bring the performance past the A320neo benchmark.

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Assessing the China market

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Introduction

Sept. 30, 2015, (c) Leeham Co.: The Boeing deals announced last week with China put the country into the spotlight about its commercial aviation ambitions.

For many, the various deals announced by Boeing raise alarm bells. For most, that fire horse already left the fire station. The smoke has been billowing out of China (or maybe that’s smog) for a long, long time.

Summary

  • Boeing announces 300 orders and commitments for China, though the company was vague about the details. We try to dissect what’s real and what’s smoke.
  • Additional deals announced by Boeing are driven by China’s pay-to-play approach to business.
  • Other OEMs, suppliers also have to pay-to-play.
  • China’s deals with Airbus and Boeing are only two elements of a national goal for commercial aerospace.
  • IP theft and technology transfer big concerns.

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Chinese 737 Completion Center makes tactical, strategic sense

Sept. 22, 2015, © Leeham Co. The expected announcement by Boeing and Chinese President Xi during

President Xi of China. Photo via Google images.

his state visit to Seattle this week that Boeing will develop a Completion Center for the 737 in China is a significant event that may one day lead to an assembly line there.

Boeing’s touch labor union, the IAM 751, was predictably critical. In a post on the 751 website last week, the union said, “In a previous meeting with Renton’s 737 leadership we saw a brief presentation outlining Boeing’s perceived market conditions regarding sales of single aisle aircraft and the company’s desire to collaborate with China. We have asked the Company for details of what is intended with “collaboration” and have not received ANY information on “collaboration” or confirming or disputing the media reports. While we don’t know specifics of any such proposal, ANY shift of aerospace jobs from our bargaining unit or Washington State causes grave concern.”

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Boeing start applying “Standard Rules” to its and competitors’ aircraft.

By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction 

04 Aug 2015, © Leeham Co.: Boeing has for the last 20 years used an internal set of rules called Integrated Airplane Configuration ruleset, or IAC for short, for how it describes its own and competitors’ aircraft. These configuration rules, while comprehensive and consistently applied, have some problems, the most obvious is that they are 20 years old.

The IAC rules have filled an important role for Boeing: they have been the yard-stick how its different aircraft stack up but also how to value competitor’s aircraft. All aircraft in Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) have been configured and scrutinized with IAC.

The world of civil airliners have moved on since the creation of IAC in the early 1990s and there was time for an overhaul. This has now been done, after several years of internal work the new configuration rules are ready for prime time under the name of “Boeing Standard Rules”.

The most externally visual effect is that officially published seat information and performance data for Boeing’s aircraft change. The configuration ruleset dictates how everything is measured against a standardized set of parameters for each aircraft type and use.

We talked with Boeing’s Director for Product Marketing, Jim Haas, how to decipher the changes and how aircraft stack up before and after being “Standardized”. Read more

Mitsubishi opens Seattle Engineering Center ahead of MRJ90 first flight

MRJ90 Timeline

The MRJ90 testing and entry into service timeline. Source: Mitsubishi. Click on image to enlarge.

August 3, 2015, © Leeham Co.: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. today opened its Seattle Engineering Center jointly with local company AeroTEC in advance of the first flight of the MRJ90 in September or October. During the second quarter of next year, four of five MRJ Flight Test Vehicles will be domiciled in Moses Lake in Central Washington for the bulk of the flight testing over the following year. Entry into service is planned for 2Q2017 with launch customer All Nippon Airways.

The engineering center represents the first in Washington State for an aircraft OEM other than Boeing. Mitsubishi will assign 50 engineers from Japan to the new SEC, in South Seattle a short distance from Boeing Field. One hundred engineers will be hired locally.

AeroTEC and Mitsubishi began discussing working together only last January, said president Lee Human, who added that the seven months from January to the opening of the SEC today was remarkable for the speed in which negotiations, contracts, permits and hiring was achieved.

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LEAP, the best of 1,000 investigated alternatives.

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

June 23, 2015, © Leeham Co. CFM International went through 1,000 iterations before settling on the final design for the LEAP engines that will power the Airbus A320neo, the Boeing 737 MAX and the COMAC C919.

In an interview with us at the Paris Air Show, CFM LEAP program manager Gareth Richards explained the macro process of the development of LEAP, CFM’s sequel to CFM56. This will be the largest turbofan engine program in the history of civil aviation and the follow on to the world’s most-sold turbofan, the CFM56.

Richards focused on how an engine like LEAP gets designed and what the trades are that a single aisle, short haul engine has compared to long haul engines.

LEAP is sharing the A320neo platform with Pratt & Whitney’s GTF but is sole engine on the 737 MAX and the C919. This will lead to engine production rates five years into the program of 1800 engines which is higher than the present rate of CFM56 deliveries.

Dependant on rate increases by Airbus and Boeing, this can increase beyond 2,000 engines per year after the initial ramp. It would make LEAP the largest civil turbofan program whichever way one counts: engines, installed thrust or revenue.

Summary:

  • Research of optimal engine cycle was extensive, with more than 1,000 alternatives investigated before settling on the final LEAP cycle.
  • The production ramp is the fastest ever, from 30 engines 2015 to 1,700 by 2019.
  • While CFM does not want to ramp faster than planned, final production rate is flexible.
  • The large volume of sold engines, the fast production ramp and the short-haul cycle makes for a conservative approach to performance.
  • We discuss with Richards how such a program is managed and how you make sure you can deliver on promises.

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Bjorn’s Corner: What Paris Air Show taught us about East and West.

 

By Bjorn Fehrm

By Bjorn Fehrm

25 June 2015, © Leeham Co: With a few days in the office one can look back at Paris Air Show with a bit of perspective. So what are the impressions?

It was surprising how many orders Airbus and Boeing landed. Both had played down the expectations, telling that it will be a decent show but nothing close to record. Yet both were booking orders or commitments which were better than expected going into the PAS. Read more

Airbus COO faces production challenge vs bulging order book

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Introduction

June 15, 2015, Paris Air Show, c. Leeham Co. Airbus, like Boeing, is faced with an embarrassment of riches: too many orders for the A320 and A350 production rates that have been announced. There’s pressure from the top commercial officer to hike rates, but the president and chief operating officer says not so fast.

Tom Williams was elevated to the presidency only a few

months ago from his position as EVP-Programs, where he was in charge of production and the Airbus supply chain. Williams, a Scotsman and the first non-French or non-German to be president and COO of Airbus Commercial, ruefully observes he didn’t give up the production and supply chain duties with his new title.

Although Williams agrees with John Leahy, chief operating officer-customers, that demand indicates higher rates are needed for the A320 and A350, the demands on the supply chain for Airbus, as well as the other airframers, also demands caution.

  • Summary
  • Decision end of this year or early next on A380 production rates.
  • A380neo launch aid reported—but it’s premature.
  • No decision yet on greater than 50 A320 production rate per month.
  • Pondering hike in A350 production rate beyond the 10/mo announced.
  • Cabin suppliers a top concern.

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Paris Air Show: Qatar and others

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Introduction

June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. It could be called the Qatar Airways Air Show.

Qatar Airways plans to have five airliners on display at the Paris Air Show in two weeks: the Airbus A319, A320, A350, A380 and the Boeing 787. The carrier hasn’t announced whether it will provide an aerial display as it has at previous air shows, but Qatar may well have more airliners there than Airbus or Boeing.

As for manufacturers other than Airbus and Boeing, we don’t expect anything of consequence from these.

Summary

  • Irkut, COMAC, Mitsubishi, Sukoi and ATR are other major aircraft producers that will be at the Paris Air Show.
  • Engine makers CFM International, GE Aviation, Rolls-Royce, Pratt & Whitney and Engine Alliance will also be there.
  • An update on Airbus expectations.

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ISTAT Asia: Asian airline market update

Introduction

May 11, 2015, c. Leeham Co: We are participating this week in the ISTAT Asia conference in Singapore where IATA and different panels gave an interesting update on the Asian airline market. This is the fifth year that an ISTAT (International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading) conference is held in Asia and participation has virtually doubled from last year to 500 delegates.

IATA’s Conrad Clifford opened the event with the following overview about the Asian market for airline passenger travel:

  • The IATA 20 year forecast growth for the region is 4.9 % annual growth, making it the largest world-wide passenger market by 2030.
  • The domestic markets of China and India grew with 11% and 20% respectively in 1Q2015. The US market in comparison grew 3%.
  • The growth in the region makes China the world-wide largest domestic passenger market by 2030, surpassing the US with India in third place.
  • The highest growth markets are China, India and Indonesia. Countries like Thailand and Malaysia are struggling with low demand at present.

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