Embraer thinks a business case can be made for turboprop, but nothing soon

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Introduction

March 12, 2018 © Leeham Co.: Embraer isn’t planning any new airplane any time soon, but studies about a turboprop and an electric airplane are underway.

One concept of the Embraer turboprop under study.

The current focus is on introducing the Ejet-E2 into service, however. The E190-E2 goes into service next month. The E195-E2 follows next year and the E175-E2 in 2021.

Studies about the electric plane, with 50 passengers or less, perhaps are more esoteric than pending reality. Airbus and Boeing also are studying this concept.

The prospect of a turboprop may be more rooted in reality, however.

Summary
  • Current turboprop designs are aging.
  • Bombardier’s exit from the turboprop market is considered likely.
  • Tough business case seen working with Bombardier exit.
  • The ATR is too small for some airlines.

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Embraer ponders new, smaller jet

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Introduction

March 5, 2018, © Leeham Co.: News emerged last week that Embraer is considering a new jet family smaller than its current E2 line.

This would replace the E170, which Embraer decided not to upgrade to the E2. The E170 hasn’t sold wellin recent years, as the E175 became the preferred airplane in Embraer’s sub-90 seat market.

Embraer recognizes it needs a second family of airplanes to complement the E2. It’s been considering reentering the turboprop market, but demand is limited.

Restarting a sub-76-seat jet is not without risk, however.

Summary
  • Turboprop market is small over 20 years.
  • 60-99 seat market is a bit larger, but with competitors.
  • Business cases for each are challenging.

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Professionals see two types for Middle of the Market sector

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Introduction

March 1, 2018, © Leeham Co. Three industry professionals raised the question whether the Middle of the Market sector requires one aircraft type or two.

One raised the prospect Boeing might have to undertake concurrent aircraft development, as it did with the 757 and 767.

Richard Aboulafia, a consultant with The Teal Group, Ron Epstein, aerospace analyst for Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Kevin Michaels, president of AeroDynamic Advisory, made their remarks at the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance last month in Lynnwood (WA).

Summary
  • Low-cost Embraer engineers may play a role in Boeing’s development of the NMA.
  • One consultant sees two distinct NMA aircraft.
  • Boeing’s vertical integration of the supply chain may make sense only with two concurrent of consecutive airplane programs.

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Pontifications: NMA, Boeing-Embraer headline Singapore Air Show

By Scott Hamilton

Feb. 12, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The Singapore Air Show last week produced little in the way of new orders from the Big Four airframe OEMs. ATR announced a few deals and Embraer announced a letter of intent for the KC-390 multi-role tanker-transport.

The headline news revolved around the what-ifs: Boeing and the New Midrange Aircraft and Boeing and the link-up with Embraer.

Let’s look at the NMA first.

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Next Sukhoi Superjet is a 75 seater

By Bjorn Fehrm

February 7, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: The President of Sukhoi Civil AirCraft (SCAC), Alexander Rubtsov (who is also the Sales and Marketing Manager of the civil aircraft division of Russia’s United Aircraft, UAC), told Flight Global at the Singapore Air Show there has been a decision to develop a 75-seat version of Sukhoi SuperJet (SSJ).

Sukhoi and United Aircraft have studied whether to develop a larger or smaller version of the SSJ. A Russian order for 100 of the smaller model tipped the decision to the 75-seat model.

Figure 1. SSJ100/95 from Cityjet wetleased to Brussels Airlines. Source: SCAC.

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Boeing aims for half of 100-150 seat sector with 737-7

Jan. 24, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Dublin, Ireland: Boeing sees the 100-150 market sector as 10%-15% of the 20-year single-aisle market demand, or about 3,000-4,500 aircraft.

This compares with the 6,000-7,200 forecast by Bombardier.

Other companies fall within the 4,000 range.

Boeing doesn’t specifically segment the sector in its Current Market Outlook the 20-year forecast for regional, mainline, twin-aisle and cargo aircraft. However, Robert Michael, senior manager of product marketing for Boeing, disclosed the figure at the 20th Annual Airfinance Journal Conference Monday.

Michael said he expects the 737-7 MAX to capture about half the demand.

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Pontifications: 2018 is a year of Transformations

By Scott Hamilton

Jan. 8, 2018, © Leeham Co.: This is going to be a year of transformations.

This might be viewed with puzzlement by some. After all, only minor-modification models will be entering service this year: the Airbus A350-1000, the Boeing 737-9, the Airbus A319neo and the Boeing 787-10. The first flight of the 737-7 should occur.

Flight testing continues for the Mitsubishi MRJ90, the COMAC C919 and Irkut MC-21.

The proposed deal between Airbus and Bombardier should receive government approvals this year. Talks between Boeing and Embraer may or may not result in a combination of some kind.

The Big Deal, however, resides in Everett (WA).

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Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation’s tough 2017

By Bjorn Fehrm

January 02, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: The past year was difficult for Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation (MAC) and its MRJ regional airliner. Although clear progress was made in the flight-testing of the MRJ, problems were found with the aircraft’s avionics and cabling redundancy.

The result is an avionics and cabling systems redesign which pushes out first delivery from 2018 to 2020. It’s the fifth and the longest delay of the program.

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Embraer’s improved E-Jet E2

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

December 07, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Embraer is four months from first service introduction of the new generation E-Jet, the E190-E2, with Norway’s Wideroe. Following the smooth E190-E2 program will be the larger E195-E2 in 2019.

Embraer’s E2 update of the E-Jet is more elaborate than the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX updates. In addition to new engines, the aircraft’s wings and systems are changed. In addition, the fuselages are stretched on two of the three models for increased passenger capacity.

We analyze the areas of change from the original E-Jets and what these mean for the operations and economics of the aircraft.

Summary:
  • The E-Jet E2 keeps the strong point of the original E-Jet, its comfortable cabin, and improves other areas to keep the family competitive after 2020.
  • As the only aircraft family in the market (regional or mainline), the E2 models E175, E190 and E195 all get their own optimized wings. The result is good field and range performance paired with low fuel consumption.
  • The E2 family introduces advanced Digital Fly-By-Wire to allow reduced static stability and by it trim drag. This improves the fuel consumption further.
  • Other system changes focus lower maintenance costs. The new single-aisle generation (A320neo, 737 MAX) lowers maintenance costs per seat. The regional OEMs must respond.

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Assessing Alaska Air Group’s fleet requirements

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Introduction

Oct. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Alaska Airlines Group (AAG) acquired Virgin America (VA) and with it, Virgin’s exclusive fleet of Airbus A320ceos with orders for A320neos and A321neos.

With Alaska Airlines (AS) being an all Boeing 737 operator, the question immediately arose: what will AAG do with the Virgin fleet.

AAG CEO Brad Tilden strongly hinted the Airbuses will eventually go away. But on earnings calls, officials say they’re studying the matter and there’s plenty of time before they must decide since the first leases don’t begin rolling off until 2019.

Even if AAG decides to consolidate around the 737—an issue still very much in doubt—it won’t be any time soon.

The A320 leases continue to 2024. The leases for the new A321neos go longer: these are 12-year leases and they are non-cancellable. The A321neos will be around at least until 2030.

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