Boeing 777X heading towards design freeze a bit heavier than planned.

By Bjorn Fehrm

Subscription required

Introduction

July 12, 2015, © Leeham Co. As we reported from Boeing’s Paris Air Show briefing, Boeing’s 777X project is progressing to a design freeze later in 2015. At the briefing everything was presented as being on track with no changes of key data. There have been signs that this in not fully the case. The 777X program is suffering the same disease that hits other aircraft programs, weight gain flu.

To understand it better, we compiled the many indications that points to weight increase and ran them through our proprietary model to understand why and see what it means for the aircraft’s performance.

Summary:

  • Weight increase is an evil that all aircraft programs battle with. Our analysis shows that 777X is no different.
  • Engine thrust is one of the areas which will be increased to mitigate increased weight. We give the latest status of GE9X thrust development, now beyond 105,000 lb.
  • A number of airframe changes have been made. We analyze their consequences and make predictions for future maximum weight increases.

Read more

LEAP, the best of 1,000 investigated alternatives.

By Bjorn Fehrm

Subscription required.

Introduction

June 23, 2015, © Leeham Co. CFM International went through 1,000 iterations before settling on the final design for the LEAP engines that will power the Airbus A320neo, the Boeing 737 MAX and the COMAC C919.

In an interview with us at the Paris Air Show, CFM LEAP program manager Gareth Richards explained the macro process of the development of LEAP, CFM’s sequel to CFM56. This will be the largest turbofan engine program in the history of civil aviation and the follow on to the world’s most-sold turbofan, the CFM56.

Richards focused on how an engine like LEAP gets designed and what the trades are that a single aisle, short haul engine has compared to long haul engines.

LEAP is sharing the A320neo platform with Pratt & Whitney’s GTF but is sole engine on the 737 MAX and the C919. This will lead to engine production rates five years into the program of 1800 engines which is higher than the present rate of CFM56 deliveries.

Dependant on rate increases by Airbus and Boeing, this can increase beyond 2,000 engines per year after the initial ramp. It would make LEAP the largest civil turbofan program whichever way one counts: engines, installed thrust or revenue.

Summary:

  • Research of optimal engine cycle was extensive, with more than 1,000 alternatives investigated before settling on the final LEAP cycle.
  • The production ramp is the fastest ever, from 30 engines 2015 to 1,700 by 2019.
  • While CFM does not want to ramp faster than planned, final production rate is flexible.
  • The large volume of sold engines, the fast production ramp and the short-haul cycle makes for a conservative approach to performance.
  • We discuss with Richards how such a program is managed and how you make sure you can deliver on promises.

Read more

Bjorn’s Corner: What Paris Air Show taught us about East and West.

 

By Bjorn Fehrm

By Bjorn Fehrm

25 June 2015, © Leeham Co: With a few days in the office one can look back at Paris Air Show with a bit of perspective. So what are the impressions?

It was surprising how many orders Airbus and Boeing landed. Both had played down the expectations, telling that it will be a decent show but nothing close to record. Yet both were booking orders or commitments which were better than expected going into the PAS. Read more

Pontifications: Final thoughts of the Paris Air Show

Bu Scott Hamiltn

By Scott Hamilton

June 22, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show was largely as expected, with a few small surprises. Boeing did better than expected via-a-vis Airbus, actually leading slightly in firm orders and tied in orders-and-options going into Thursday. This is virtually never the case, particularly at the Paris Air Show, Airbus’ “home” turf. At the same time, some Wall Street analysts noted the firm orders fell below expectations. I’m not especially concerned about whether an announcement was firm or a commitment, because the latter typically firm up, if not within the current calendar year then usually in the next. Note, for example, Boeing announced the launch of the 777X program at the 2013 Dubai Air Show was some 200 commitments, or thereabouts, but the orders didn’t firm until 2014. Airbus announced a commitment for 250 A320s from Indigo in 2014 and it will likely be firmed up this year.

Read more

Engine Alliance undertakes PIPs, but not to level Emirates wants

June 17, 2015, Paris Air Show, c. Leeham Co. Engine Alliance, one of the two power plant suppliers for the Airbus A380, said today that it is undertaking Performance Improvement Package (PIP) upgrades to the GP7200 to lower maintenance and operating costs and to reduce fuel burn.

This contrasts with blunt remarks from Tim Clark, president and COO of Emirates Airlines (EK), that EA has “flat lined” and isn’t undertaking PIPs. Emirates is by far the largest operator of EA-powered A380s but recently ordered the competing Rolls-Royce Trent 900s for EK’s 50 A380s ordered late last year. Clark kept engine selection open at the time.

Dean Athans, Engine Alliance president, told LNC today that the A380 is a low-volume airplane and the

David Athans, president of Engine Alliance

business case for investing in the GP7200 to the level Clark want’s isn’t there.

“Tim is acting in the best interests of Emirates Airline, and he wants to most and the best of GP that he can get,” Athans said in an interview. “I’d do the same thing if I was in his place. He wants a brand new engine. He wants a large GTF or GE9X version for this A380s. I would, too. The position I’m in, looking at the volume and the business case for the A380, it doesn’t enable that level of investment.”

At the Annual General Meeting of the International Air Transport Assn. last week in Miami Beach (FL), Clark told LNC that EA wasn’t willing to invest in the PIPs Clark wanted, and RR is.

Read more

Bjorn’s Corner: Hot competition in Middle east.

By Bjorn Fehrm

 

By Bjorn Fehrm

By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction

12 June 2015, C. Leeham Co: Earlier in the week we had an interesting interview with Sir Tim Clark, , president and COO of Emirates Airline. We discussed Emirates’ requirement for a twin aisle medium/long range complement to their Airbus A380 and Boeing 777 fleets. The competition is between Boeing’s 787-10 and Airbus’ A350-900. So far the assumptions have been that the 787-10 will be hard to beat on pure costs per seat for mid-range requirements in the 300-seat segment.

The 787-10 seats 323 passengers in Boeing’s old-fashioned IAC three class seating and 331 in our more modern, normalized two class seating with 60 inch angled lie flat in Business and 32 inch economy section. The A350-900 has so far seated 313 seats in the same normalized seating standard. Recent cabin changes by Airbus can now increase that to close to 330 seats. The configuration changes were originally conceived for A350-1000 but we believe Airbus will offer these to Emirates and they will make it into the -900 catalog.

The 787-10 is lighter and would therefore be more effective on fuel but the difference is small, given the A350-900’s more modern engines. So the overall discussion was that 787-10 had found its ideal customer, in need of many seats, a solid mid-range performance and lowest cost. That was until Monday’s interview with Clark.

Read more

We want engine choice, say airlines at IATA

Willie Walsh, CEO of British Airways, says sole-sourcing the engine on the 747-8 cost Boeing an order. BA bought the Airbus A380 instead. Photo source: SI.WSJ.net via Google images.

June 9, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Airlines want engine choices, not sole-source on airplanes, airlines said at the International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) Annual General Meeting in Miami Beach (FL).

Sole-sourcing cost Boeing a major order for the slow-selling 747-8, said Willie Walsh, CEO of British Airways. Relations at the time between British and GE Aviation, the sole engine provider on the 747-8, were so poor BA decided instead to order the Airbus A380, where a choice between the Engine Alliance GP7200 and the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 was possible GE is a JV partner in Engine Alliance with Pratt & Whitney. BA bought Rolls.

Read more

Pontifications: re-engining airliners and the A380

Hamilton (5)

By Scott Hamilton

June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show begins in two weeks. One thing that won’t happen is the launch of the Airbus A380neo.

We still think it will happen, though at a later date.

Re-engining the A380 is highly controversial. The A380 is the plane critics love to hate. You can argue whether it should have been built in the first place. You can argue whether it was 10 years too soon. You can argue whether Airbus misjudged the size of the market. You can even argue its passenger appeal. I haven’t flown on the A380 yet, so I can’t speak from personal experience on the latter. I’ve previously discussed the other points.

You can argue whether the airplane should be re-engined. Leeham News concluded in January 2014 Airbus really had no choice but to re-engine the A380 if it wants to continue offering the model. If done inexpensively (a relative term, to be sure), it makes sense given the arrival around 2020 of the Boeing 777-9. It’s when design creep happens that trouble arises. Just ask Boeing on the 747-8.

Emirates Airlines says it will buy up to 200 A380neos if Airbus proceeds. Qatar Airways expresses interest. Lufthansa Airlines said a neo is needed to keep the A380 viable in the future, though it hasn’t taken the next step of saying it will buy more.

Re-engining is hardly new. Let’s take a look. Read more

Paris Air Show Preview: Airbus

Subscription Required.

Introduction

May 3, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show is June 15-19 for the trade/industrial portion. Beginning this week, Leeham News and Comment will provide our Airbus_logo_3D_BlueMarket Assessment and insight about what to expect. We begin this weekly exercise by looking at Airbus. Future posts will look at Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer and other major players at the PAS.

Summary

  • First, an overarching look at what to expect;
  • What to expect for Airbus at the show;
  • The future of the A380neo;
  • Outlook for the A330ceo/neo; and
  • Outlook for the A321LR.

Read more

Can PIPs bring the A380 what Emirates Airlines wants?

By Bjorn Fehrm

Subscription required.

Introduction

26 April 2015, C. Leeham Co: With Emirates Airlines deciding for Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engines for its 50 new A380s and admitting that it would accept that this could be for all of them if Airbus does not proceed with an A380neo, the time has come to look at how much incremental improvements can be brought on the present A380.

Our proprietary aircraft model is particularly suited for such studies as we can change any parameter and read the result off the efficiency scale. We can also play with the aircraft’s configuration and see what effect it will have. Based on Emirates’ new configuration of A380s equipped with the Trent 900 engine, we have checked what incremental improvements are doable and what would they bring.

Summary

  • Our deep analysis of 18 Dec. 2014 showed that the present A380 is the most economical aircraft one can operate if one can fill it to normal load factors.
  • Emirates COO Tim Clark complements this fact with the statement, “It is Emirates’ most profitable aircraft” in the press conference in London last week when announcing the Trent 900 deal with Rolls-Royce.
  • Clark’s statement also covers the fact the passengers prefer A380 over other aircraft if they have a choice, it operates with higher load-factors then Emirates other aircraft.
  • The A380 is a rather special design and its characteristics make Product Improvement Packages, PIPs, possible in a number of areas. We discuss which they would be and model their effect on overall performance.
  • While the sought-after 10%-13% improvement would not be in there, incremental changes can cover up to half of that with more or less plausible business cases. Airbus is right now deciding which of these they see as worthwhile and introducing them.

Read more