Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Hopes for 1Q financial progress turns into bumpy ride for Boeing April 21, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18. April 18, 2025
- Natilus: Composite BWB, entry-into-service by 2029, 570 on order April 17, 2025
- China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war April 15, 2025
- Boeing welcomes COMAC competition as Asia-Pacific demand soars April 15, 2025
Boeing’s strategy to de-risk design, production
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Introduction
April 2, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing’s painful experience the with the development, design, production and grounding of the 787—costing billions of dollars in overruns and penalties with a delay of nearly four years—led to a major effort to de-risk future airplane development.
The 787 experience led to a pause that resulted in pursuing derivatives of the 737 MAX and 777X instead of developing new airplanes to replace these aging platforms and leap ahead of Airbus.
Now, poised to launch its first all-new airplane program in 15 years, Boeing continues to de-risk its production.
Summary
- De-risking production means diversifying supplier base, bringing work in-house.
- De-risking is changing the fundamental design-production nexus.
- De-risking is innovating and cutting costs to meet new competition.
The Southeast Aerospace and Defence Conference will examine the transformation in production. Click here for more information.
Boeing’s NMA decision entering final stretch, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 26, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing’s NMA or 797 is taking final form ahead of a decision to essentially launch the program with an Authority to Offer (ATO), widely believed to be later this year.
In the first article, we looked at the key characteristics of the design. We also looked at the engine situation in a couple of articles.
Now we round up the series with analyzing the potential economics of the aircraft.
Figure 1. The first sketch of the smaller 797-6X with 224 seats. Source: JonOstrower.com
Summary:
- The projected 797 would have competitive Cash Operating Costs compared with a modern Single Aisle aircraft like the Airbus A321LR.
- The challenge is the capital costs. The A320/A321 and Boeing’s 737 MAX models are produced in numbers passing 10,000. An NMA would be successful if produced in 1,000 units. This leads to higher production costs for the numerically smaller series.
- The focus from Boeing is therefore on lowering Production costs and on finding Services revenue which can help the 797 business case.
Focus on NMA engines: all OEMs vying for Boeing’s approval
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Introduction
March 22, 2018, © Leeham Co.: As Boeing enters the final stretch whether to launch the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, aka 797) market focus should shift to the 
engines more than the airframe and even the market demand.
It all comes down to this: no engines, no plane.
Monday’s post outlined some of the issues to consider.
But there are larger implications as well.
Summary
- Market sources are tossing about various scenarios about the future GE Aviation and CFM.
- Rolls-Royce won’t have its Trent 1000 problems fixed until 2021 or 2022, at great cost.
- Pratt & Whitney won’t have its Geared Turbo Fan final PIP packages for its problems sorted out until around 2021.
- Resources—both financial and with engineering—are stretched now.
- Sequencing current engine problems, and in the case, GE’s GE9X, are a factor, in the eyes of some.
GE/CFM in “lockstep” with Boeing on NMA
David Joyce
March 22, 2018, © Leeham News: GE Aviation/CFM International are in “lockstep” with Boeing for development of an engine for the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, or 797), the CEO of GE Aviation told a JP Morgan Aviation conference last week.
David Joyce acknowledged that there are technical issues and production delays for the new CFM LEAP 1A and 1B that power the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families respectively. Production is running up to six weeks late, but should be caught up by the end of this year, he said.
Technical issues, while affecting at least 100 engines, nevertheless are far less of an issue than those plaguing rival Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan.
Production transformation key to Boeing NMA
March 20, 2018, © Leeham News: As Boeing builds the business case for the New Midrange Airplane (NMA, or 797), dozens of major factors come into play, along with the hundreds or thousands of smaller one.
The market demand, of course, is a well-known business case element.
So is price to the customer, the design and capabilities of the airplane, the engines and the technology of them, whether there will be a sole- or dual-source engine, where the airplane will be assembled and how it will be produced.
- .Production transformation is the focus of the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference June 25-27, organized by Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal.
One Boeing official told LNC that the 797 is as much about production as it is everything else. This goes to cost and cost goes to pricing.
Automation, robotics, digital design, 3D printing and additive manufacturing are key to producing the 797. Many elements are already in place on other Boeing programs, most described in the media already.
One key supplier is Dassault Systemes.
NMA focus needs to be on engines
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Introduction
March 19, 2018, © Leeham Co.: As the market awaits a decision by Boeing whether to launch the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, or 797), focus has been on the aircraft’s definition and market demand.
It should be on the engines.
It doesn’t matter whether Boeing designs a fabulous airplane that’s the next best thing to sliced bread. What matters is whether the engines will be ready in time for Boeing’s suggested entry-into-service and if they are, whether they will be reliable out of the box.
The recent track record isn’t all that encouraging. Neither is Boeing’s preferred timing.
Summary
- CFM, GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce each had problems with their new engines. All continue.
- The Boeing NMA requires brand new engines, not derivatives.
- Engine development and certification within the Boeing preferred timeline is sporty at best.
A321neo plus a stretch too far for NMA: Avitas
Published 05 Mar 2018 by Airfinance Journal
Special to Leeham News.
March 8, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal: A leading appraisal firm questions whether Airbus should respond to Boeing’s proposed new midsize aircraft (NMA) simply by enhancing its existing product line.
John Vitale. Source: Airfinance Journal
“There is a gap, a natural gap that needs to be filled, so I am not sure whether the A330 coming down…and the A321 coming up, fills the gap,” said John Vitale, president and chief executive officer of Avitas, speaking on a panel of appraisers at Airfinance Journal’s Korean Airfinance event, adding: “Airbus claims the A321 has all this range and that they can put in as many seats as they are talking about. Well, no you can’t in an equal comfort level.”
However, Vitale acknowledges a possible further stretch by Airbus of its A321neo, the A322, or enhanced versions, such as the ‘A321neo-plus’, or even an ‘A321neo-plus-plus’“pushes out the timing of the NMA aircraft.”
Retirement wave coming that will boost A330neo sales, says Airbus
March 6, 2018: Airbus is ramping up the messaging for the slow-selling A330neo, reiterating its view that a wave of retirements is coming from current A330 operators that will support new sales.
LNC first reported the message Dec. 6.
Jeff Knittel, the new president of Airbus Americas, reinforced this message yesterday at an industry conference.
Engine makers “inside the tent” on Boeing NMA, but airframer still ponders provider
March 5, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The three engine makers, CFM/GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce, are the only suppliers that have been brought “inside the tent” by Boeing for the New Midrange Aircraft, a company executive said today.
Launching the program is critical on the engine companies, says Randy Tinseth, VP marketing for Boeing. Boeing hasn’t decided—officially—whether it will have a
Randy Tinseth. Photo via Google images.
single-engine or dual-engine source for the aircraft because the program hasn’t been launched.
Market intelligence tells LNC that Boeing wants two engine choices. Intel also indicates all three engine OEMs view the market demand as sharply smaller than Boeing’s publicly-stated forecast of 4,000 Middle of the Market sector airplanes over the next 20 years.
Professionals see two types for Middle of the Market sector
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Introduction
March 1, 2018, © Leeham Co. Three industry professionals raised the question whether the Middle of the Market sector requires one aircraft type or two.
One raised the prospect Boeing might have to undertake concurrent aircraft development, as it did with the 757 and 767.
Richard Aboulafia, a consultant with The Teal Group, Ron Epstein, aerospace analyst for Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Kevin Michaels, president of AeroDynamic Advisory, made their remarks at the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance last month in Lynnwood (WA).
Summary
- Low-cost Embraer engineers may play a role in Boeing’s development of the NMA.
- One consultant sees two distinct NMA aircraft.
- Boeing’s vertical integration of the supply chain may make sense only with two concurrent of consecutive airplane programs.