Subscription Required
May 7, 2018, © Leeham News: Single aisle airliner production rates are on a track to hit 1,800 per year by 2022, a new analysis by LNC concludes.
This is for aircraft of 100 seats or more. Therefore, this includes the Bombardier CS100 and its competitors the Embraer E190/195 E1/E2 at the smallest end of the 100-240-seat single-aisle markets.
The dominating companies are, of course, Airbus and Boeing. Airbus plans to increase rates of its A320 family next year to 63/mo; Boeing is going to 57/mo for the 737. Both companies are studying increasing rates to 70/mo, a figure LNC believes can be sustained through at least 2025.
Bombardier plans to go to rate 10 for its C Series, a figure that may have been difficult to achieve before BBD sold 50.01% of the program to Airbus. The deal is expected to close before the Farnborough Air Show.
For purposes of this analysis, LNC assumes the deal goes through but for identification carves out C Series as a stand-alone airplane.
COMAC and Irkut are included in the forecast.
Subscription Required
May 3, 2018, © Leeham Co.: With the supply chain confirming last Thursday that Airbus and Boeing are exploring single-aisle production rates of 70/mo, Airbus confirmed it was doing so during its Friday earnings call.
Boeing continues to be ambiguous, saying only there is “upward pressure” on its 737 production rates.
The supply chain, notably the engine OEMs, already has heartburn over the current rate of 60/mo and 52/mo for the A320 and 737 families respectively.
Summary
Production rates will be among the topics at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference next month in Mobile (AL). Click here for more information.
Posted on May 3, 2018 by Scott Hamilton
Subscription Required
April 30, 2018, © Leeham News: Southwest Airlines announced orders 80 Boeing 737-8s so far this year and market intelligence indicates the carrier may be far from done.
Another 60 orders may come during the year, though this trend could slow, market intelligence indicates.
The carrier is accelerating fleet retirements of its Boeing 737-700s with the orders. The latest round last week now makes Southwest the largest single customer for the MAX.
Significantly, the orders represent an up-gauging to the 8 MAX from the -700. The similarly-sized, slow-selling 737-7 MAX, of which Southwest is one of only four identified customers, is being bypassed. Southwest previously deferred delivery of 23 7 MAXes four years.
Southwest historically operated its 737s for at least 25 years. Some 737-300s were 28 years old by the time they were retired and stored, according to the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker.
Posted on April 30, 2018 by Scott Hamilton
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
April 26, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus Ultra Long-Range version of the A350-900 took off for the first time Monday. The aircraft will conduct a short flight test program before being painted in Singapore Airlines’ colours and handed over after the summer.
Airbus touts the A350-900URL as an aircraft which can fly ultra-long routes with flight times up to 20 hours and distances of 9,700nm. So, what so different with this aircraft to the normal A350-900? We use our performance model to show where the differences are.
Posted on April 26, 2018 by Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
April 23, 2018, © Leeham News: Even before last week’s Southwest Airlines accident raised the focus on aircraft engines, industry officials were becoming worried that problems with engines powering the Boeing 747-8, 787, 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo may lead to stricter certification standards by regulatory authorities.
There is also emerging evidence that the issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 on the 787s may negatively impact Airbus’ sales efforts with the A350. The A350 is powered by an entirely different RR engine, the Trent XWB, which by all accounts has had a virtually trouble-free entry into service.
But it’s a Rolls-Royce engine and airlines affected by or watching RR’s response to the Trent 1000 problems are skeptical about the Trent XWB, LNC is told.
Posted on April 23, 2018 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, CFM, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce
737 MAX, 747-8, 777X, 787, 797, A320NEO, A330neo, A350, Airbus, Boeing, CRM, EASA, ETOPS, FAA, GE Avaition, GTF, LEAP, NMA, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Safran, Trent 1000
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
April 19, 2018, © Leeham News: In an article last week, we discussed the reason the new narrow-body engines are catching up to the fuel consumption of the wide-body engines.
Today we dig a bit deeper into the efficiency changes of the different engines and discuss which parameter changes have caused what changes in engine efficiency.
We will use our engine modeling software GasTurb to analyze what happens in a Turbofan when we change certain parameters.
Summary:
Posted on April 19, 2018 by Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
April 16, 2018, © Leeham News: There’s high turnover in the executive ranks. Major delivery delays cause disruption and unhappy customers. Airlines are cancelling and switching orders. Product strategy is challenged. Your competitor is taking advantage and making significant inroads.
If this sounds familiar, it is.
It’s déjà vu all over again.
Posted on April 16, 2018 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, CFM, Emirates Airlines, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce
797, A320NEO, A321Plus, A330-800, A330-900, A350, Airbus, airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Emirates Airlines, Eric Schulz, Hawaiian Airlines, John Leahy, New Midrange Aircraft, NMA
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
April 12, 2018, © Leeham News: In an article yesterday about Long-Haul LCC costs we observed how the new Narrowbody engines are catching up to the fuel efficiencies of the Widebody engines.
Traditionally the Widebody engines were the efficiency leaders. The Narrowbody companions were designed to be durable rather than efficient.
We use the engine modelling software GasTurb to understand why this catching up of the Narrowbody engines has happened.
Posted on April 12, 2018 by Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
April 9, 2018, © Leeham News: Even as Airbus touted the new 251t A330-800 and optimism that aging A330-200s will kick start a replacement cycle in 2020-21, the
Airbus A330neo. Photo via Google images.
concurrent loss of a campaign to sell the model to American Airlines casts a shadow over the model and the entire program.
Airbus had just come off the cancellation of the only A330-800 order, by Hawaiian Airlines, which flipped to the Boeing 787-9. As the sole customer for six A330-800s, the cancellation was expected.
Airbus hoped that an American order, for 20 -800s, would prove to be the endorsement of the program that was needed to spur worldwide sales.
Boeing was just as adamant that, like Hawaiian, American order the 787. In this case, Boeing had the leg up: the 787 was already in AA’s fleet (37 of 42 previous orders were already delivered). American wanted to simplify its fleet, not add another type. And airline officials were skeptical of the -800 for the very reason Airbus was so in need of AA’s order.
Summary
Posted on April 9, 2018 by Scott Hamilton
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
April 05, 2018, © Leeham News.: In an article yesterday we described the different costs types for a Long-Haul LCC. We also explained the different parts of the Operational costs for the airline’s aircraft operations.
We will look at the size of these Operational costs in Part 3 of the article series. In this article, we use our aircraft performance model to develop these costs for the LCC’s aircraft.