Single-aisle production on track for 1,800/yr

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Introduction

May 7, 2018, © Leeham News: Single aisle airliner production rates are on a track to hit 1,800 per year by 2022, a new analysis by LNC concludes.

This is for aircraft of 100 seats or more. Therefore, this includes the Bombardier CS100 and its competitors the Embraer E190/195 E1/E2 at the smallest end of the 100-240-seat single-aisle markets.

The dominating companies are, of course, Airbus and Boeing. Airbus plans to increase rates of its A320 family next year to 63/mo; Boeing is going to 57/mo for the 737. Both companies are studying increasing rates to 70/mo, a figure LNC believes can be sustained through at least 2025.

Bombardier plans to go to rate 10 for its C Series, a figure that may have been difficult to achieve before BBD sold 50.01% of the program to Airbus. The deal is expected to close before the Farnborough Air Show.

For purposes of this analysis, LNC assumes the deal goes through but for identification carves out C Series as a stand-alone airplane.

COMAC and Irkut are included in the forecast.

Summary
  • A320 backlogs extend through the next decade in a greater number than Boeing’s 737.
  • 737 backlogs extend through the next decade, but many operators have yet to order the MAX to fully replace retiring 737 NGs.
  • Airbus acquisition of control of C Series program gives it a boost.
  • Embraer is a niche player in the small end of the market—for now.
  • COMAC and Irkut present little near-term threat to Airbus and Boeing.

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Demand supports rate 70/mo for A320, 737

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Introduction

May 3, 2018, © Leeham Co.: With the supply chain confirming last Thursday that Airbus and Boeing are exploring single-aisle production rates of 70/mo, Airbus confirmed it was doing so during its Friday earnings call.

Boeing continues to be ambiguous, saying only there is “upward pressure” on its 737 production rates.

The supply chain, notably the engine OEMs, already has heartburn over the current rate of 60/mo and 52/mo for the A320 and 737 families respectively.

Summary

  • Engine makers CFM and Pratt & Whitney continue to have technical and production issues.
  • Airbus and Boeing each have “gliders,” though Boeing’s is a handful vs the dozens at Airbus.
  • CFM’s partner, Safran, cautions against rate 70.

Production rates will be among the topics at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference next month in Mobile (AL). Click here for more information.

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Southwest accelerates 737-700 retirements

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Introduction

April 30, 2018, © Leeham News: Southwest Airlines announced orders 80 Boeing 737-8s so far this year and market intelligence indicates the carrier may be far from done.

Another 60 orders may come during the year, though this trend could slow, market intelligence indicates.

The carrier is accelerating fleet retirements of its Boeing 737-700s with the orders. The latest round last week now makes Southwest the largest single customer for the MAX.

Significantly, the orders represent an up-gauging to the 8 MAX from the -700. The similarly-sized, slow-selling 737-7 MAX, of which Southwest is one of only four identified customers, is being bypassed. Southwest previously deferred delivery of 23 7 MAXes four years.

Click on image to enlarge.

Southwest historically operated its 737s for at least 25 years. Some 737-300s were 28 years old by the time they were retired and stored, according to the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker.

Summary
  • Strong economic business case cited to retire 737-700s.
  • 40 737-700s to be retired with concurrent deliveries.
  • Retirements occurring at earlier age.
  • Aging aircraft issues exist.

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Airbus’ Ultra Long Range A350 starts flight test

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

April 26, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus Ultra Long-Range version of the A350-900 took off for the first time Monday. The aircraft will conduct a short flight test program before being painted in Singapore Airlines’ colours and handed over after the summer.

Airbus touts the A350-900URL as an aircraft which can fly ultra-long routes with flight times up to 20 hours and distances of 9,700nm. So, what so different with this aircraft to the normal A350-900? We use our performance model to show where the differences are.

Summary:

  • The A350-900URL has got a higher fuel capacity to extend its range when used as an Ultra Long Range aircraft when loaded with fewer than 250 passengers.
  • At the passenger counts where Singapore Airlines will operate the aircraft, the additional range is about 1,000nm.
  • For normal operations, there would be no gains.

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Engine makers may face stiffer future ETOPS certification requirements

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Introduction

April 23, 2018, © Leeham News: Even before last week’s Southwest Airlines accident raised the focus on aircraft engines, industry officials were becoming worried that problems with engines powering the Boeing 747-8, 787, 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo may lead to stricter certification standards by regulatory authorities.

There is also emerging evidence that the issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 on the 787s may negatively impact Airbus’ sales efforts with the A350. The A350 is powered by an entirely different RR engine, the Trent XWB, which by all accounts has had a virtually trouble-free entry into service.

But it’s a Rolls-Royce engine and airlines affected by or watching RR’s response to the Trent 1000 problems are skeptical about the Trent XWB, LNC is told.

Summary
  • How long will it take for the FAA and EASE to restore full ETOPS for the 787?
  • Concerns emerge that regulators may be more restrictive of ETOPS for new engines powering new planes, with the Boeing 777X next up.
  • Impact seen on reception of Rolls-Royce engines on Airbus A330neo and A350.
  • What do the engine problems mean for the Boeing NMA?

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Narrowbody and Widebody engine developments, Part 2

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

April 19, 2018, © Leeham News: In an article last week, we discussed the reason the new narrow-body engines are catching up to the fuel consumption of the wide-body engines.

Today we dig a bit deeper into the efficiency changes of the different engines and discuss which parameter changes have caused what changes in engine efficiency.

We will use our engine modeling software GasTurb to analyze what happens in a Turbofan when we change certain parameters.

Summary:

  • The engine’s Core or Thermal efficiency changes with Turbine Entry Temperature (TET).
  • To fully utilize such an increase in efficiency we need to adapt the overall design of the engine.

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Déjà vu all over again

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Introduction

April 16, 2018, © Leeham News: There’s high turnover in the executive ranks. Major delivery delays cause disruption and unhappy customers. Airlines are cancelling and switching orders. Product strategy is challenged. Your competitor is taking advantage and making significant inroads.

If this sounds familiar, it is.

It’s déjà vu all over again.

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Narrowbody and Widebody engine developments

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

April 12, 2018, © Leeham News: In an article yesterday about Long-Haul LCC costs we observed how the new Narrowbody engines are catching up to the fuel efficiencies of the Widebody engines.

Traditionally the Widebody engines were the efficiency leaders. The Narrowbody companions were designed to be durable rather than efficient.

Figure 1. Cut through of the Narrowbody LEAP engine. Source: CFM

We use the engine modelling software GasTurb to understand why this catching up of the Narrowbody engines has happened.

Summary:
  • The new Narrowbody engines for Airbus’ A320 series and Boeing’s 737 MAX are close in specific fuel consumption to the new Widebody engines.
  • We use the GasTurb engine modelling software to find the root cause of this change.

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American A330neo loss casts shadow over sales prospects

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Introduction

April 9, 2018, © Leeham News: Even as Airbus touted the new 251t A330-800 and optimism that aging A330-200s will kick start a replacement cycle in 2020-21, the

Airbus A330neo. Photo via Google images.

concurrent loss of a campaign to sell the model to American Airlines casts a shadow over the model and the entire program.

Airbus had just come off the cancellation of the only A330-800 order, by Hawaiian Airlines, which flipped to the Boeing 787-9. As the sole customer for six A330-800s, the cancellation was expected.

Airbus hoped that an American order, for 20 -800s, would prove to be the endorsement of the program that was needed to spur worldwide sales.

Boeing was just as adamant that, like Hawaiian, American order the 787. In this case, Boeing had the leg up: the 787 was already in AA’s fleet (37 of 42 previous orders were already delivered). American wanted to simplify its fleet, not add another type. And airline officials were skeptical of the -800 for the very reason Airbus was so in need of AA’s order.

Summary

  • American’s order would have been the boost needed for the A330neo program.
  • It would have been an endorsement of the A330-800.
  • The 251t, 8,150nm version of the -800 makes a good, niche long-haul airplane.

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Operational costs of a Long-Haul LCC

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

April 05, 2018, © Leeham News.: In an article yesterday we described the different costs types for a Long-Haul LCC. We also explained the different parts of the Operational costs for the airline’s aircraft operations.

We will look at the size of these Operational costs in Part 3 of the article series. In this article, we use our aircraft performance model to develop these costs for the LCC’s aircraft.

Summary:

  • The smaller Boeing 737 MAX 8 is surprisingly cost competitive with the larger and more capable Airbus A321LR, A330-900 and Boeing 787-9 on our selected route.
  • The low trip and seat costs of the MAX 8 can only be used on transatlantic routes like our New York – London route. Any further into the US or Europe and the MAX 8 runs out of range.

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