Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
Boeing moves EIS target for NMA to 2027: sources
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Introduction
Dec. 4, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Officially, Boeing says the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, or 797) entry-into-service will be around 2024-25 if the program is launched.
LNC has learned the target date now being discussed is 2027.
Boeing 797 concept. Source: Boeing.
This means the 737 replacement likewise slips, with EIS after 2030 instead of late next decade or in 2030.
The new NMA target date, which we’ve heard from the supply chain and customer base, gives further impetus to the prospect of restarting the 767-300ER passenger production, a decision that is supposed to be made by the end of this year.
Summary
- Technology is at the heart of the new target EIS for the NMA.
- The 737 replacement was always intended to follow the NMA.
- Supply chain asked for 767 production rate ramp-up feasibility.
Boeing’s good year for wide-body orders
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Introduction
Nov. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Officials from Airbus and Boeing each said this year that wide-body orders, languishing for the past couple of years, should pick up by the turn of the decade as the in-service fleet reaches 20-25 years old.
Aerolineas Argentinas plans a wide-body competition for deliveries around 2020-2021. Photo via Google images.
But Boeing has had an exemplary year through Nov. 21, the most recent update of its Orders and Deliveries website. The company reported 160 net orders for the 767, 777 and 787, with 88 for the latter. Commitments for 40 more at the Dubai Air Show are not included, as these have not yet been firmed up.
Airbus hasn’t done nearly as well: just 56 net orders for the A330 and A350 families through October, its most recently reported data.
Have Boeing’s results indicated a sooner-than-expected uptick in orders?
Summary
- Not enough data to draw definitive conclusions, but uptick may be arriving early.
- Aerolineas Argentinas and Thai Airways are looking at wide-body aircraft orders. See the stories here and here.
- Early this year, 5-year slump was seen. By August, strong market seen.
Airbus A350-1000 certified. How good is it?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Airbus A350-1000 received its airworthiness certificate Tuesday, after a smooth flight test campaign. The first serial aircraft is in final assembly, for delivery to Qatar Airways next month.
With the A350-1000 now on the market, we check the efficiency difference between the A350-1000 and its main competitor, Boeing’s 777.
Figure 1. A350-1000 at cold weather testing in North Canada. Source: Airbus.
With the 777-8 five years away, we compare the A350-1000 to the present 777, the -300ER. The changed fuel prices create a different yardstick since our last comparison of the 777-300ER and A350-1000.
While at it, we also check how much better the A350-1000 score on costs versus the smaller A350-900.
Summary:
- The A350-1000 is the most efficient aircraft of the three.
- The A350-900 is smaller. It has Cash Operating Costs per seat mile which are close to the A350-1000.
- The 777-300ER is the most expensive to operate, also at today’s fuel prices. Pricing must be very aggressive to compensate operating cost differences to the A350-1000.
- With A350-1000 deliveries starting, the 777-300ER’s reign as the twin to have for 350-seat long range is ending.
The data behind Emirates’ choice of 787-10
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Yesterday we outlined the qualitative reasons why the Boeing 787-10 was selected for Emirates’ medium-range routes. Now we put figures behind the words.
We will quantify the weight and drag consequences of the tighter packaging of the 787 and discuss what it’s smaller wing means in field performance from a hot Dubai International Airport.
We use our airline performance model to give us the data, flying the aircraft over typical routes.
Summary:
- The A350-900 was designed for flights up to 15 to 20 hours.
- To make these bearable, Airbus decided to offer 18-inch seat width in the nine abreast economy cabin.
- Boeing went another route. It offered a slightly narrower fuselage and let the airlines decide between eight or nine abreast economy.
- Only Japanse ANA and JAL chose the base layout with eight abreast economy (and ANA has since switched to nine abreast economy for new deliveries).
- The result is an aircraft with lower empty weight and fuel burn (everything else being equal).
- For the 787-10, Boeing combined the tighter packaged fuselage with a wing optimised for flights up to 12 hours.
- The 787-10 consequently beats the A350-900 on efficiency for shorter routes.
Airbus’ A330 or Boeing’s 787 for LCC long haul?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 09, 2017, © Leeham Co.: International Airlines Group’s (IAG) CEO, Willy Walsh, said in an Investor presentation last week “LEVEL (the group’s Long Haul LCC) is as well off with the Airbus A330-200 as with a Boeing 787.” He said the lower capital costs of the A330 compensates for the Dreamliner’s lower fuel burn.
As a proof, Walsh said IAG had run flight plans with their LEVEL A330 flying the same mission as a Norwegian 787 and configured as the Norwegian aircraft. The difference in fuel burn Barcelona-Los Angeles would be 6t. But this is easily compensated by the difference in capital costs.
Going forward, LEVEL has the possibility to switch to the 787, said Walsh. Our reaction is; why not include the A330neo in this discussion?
We decided to verify Walsh statements and also check why an A330neo wouldn’t be more appropriate than a 787.
Summary:
- The statement by Walsh about the difference in fuel burn between the A330 and the Dreamliner is correct.
- However, fuel cost is no longer the dominant cost in airline operations.
- We compare the total Cash Operating Costs (COCs) of the aircraft, then we view whether the COC difference between the types can be compensated with capital cost differences.
CSeries effect on Airbus, Boeing product strategies
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Introduction
Nov. 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing took a pass on assuming ownership of the Bombardier CSeries, according to a report in the Toronto Globe and Mail—the same deal rival Airbus took.
In doing so, Boeing passed on acquiring a new airplane program at pretty much zero risk, no cash investment and no research-and-development cost. The market demand ranges from 4,000 to 6,000, depending on whose study you believe.
Rival Airbus wouldn’t have a response and, given its current turmoil, would have been unlikely to pursue a response.
Instead, Boeing may embark on a risky, high-cost development of the New Midrange Aircraft for which market demand remains a controversy, suppliers are reluctant to take risk-sharing positions and which will almost certainly provoke a response from Airbus.
Artist concept of Boeing 797-7. Source: fs2000.org.
Summary
- Boeing says it’s not worried about Airbus stake in CSeries program; it remains satisfied with its product strategy.
- But 100-160 seat sector won’t be covered by a 737 replacement. Airbus has this covered with CSeries.
- New Midmarket Airplane figures into CSeries impact.
Assessing Alaska Air Group’s fleet requirements
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Introduction
Oct. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Alaska Airlines Group (AAG) acquired Virgin America (VA) and with it, Virgin’s exclusive fleet of Airbus A320ceos with orders for A320neos and A321neos.
With Alaska Airlines (AS) being an all Boeing 737 operator, the question immediately arose: what will AAG do with the Virgin fleet.
AAG CEO Brad Tilden strongly hinted the Airbuses will eventually go away. But on earnings calls, officials say they’re studying the matter and there’s plenty of time before they must decide since the first leases don’t begin rolling off until 2019.
Even if AAG decides to consolidate around the 737—an issue still very much in doubt—it won’t be any time soon.
The A320 leases continue to 2024. The leases for the new A321neos go longer: these are 12-year leases and they are non-cancellable. The A321neos will be around at least until 2030.
Singapore airlines increases order for 787-10
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
Oct. 26, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Singapore airlines increased its order for Boeing’s 787-10 from 20 to 39 this week. The first aircraft for the airline rolled off the assembly earlier this month. It will now be prepared for delivery, flying out to Singapore on the new year.
The 787-10 is essentially a 787-9 which can take more passengers. By it, the cost per passenger goes down.
How much better? By comparing with the closest competitor, Airbus A350-900, we can learn by how much.
We will use our performance model to compare the aircraft. It’s a bit apples and oranges, because the A350-900 is a long-range airliner with 8,000nm range, and the 787-10 sacrifices the range of the -9 variant to carry more passengers.
But it’s interesting to see how this sacrifice pays off in efficiency on the type of routes the 787-10 was designed for.
Summary:
- The 787-10 is optimized to carry 330 passengers out to 6,400nm. It does this with a well-packaged fuselage and the wing of the smaller 787-9.
- The A350-900 is larger. It has a larger wing, to fly longer. And its fuselage diameter brings more passenger comfort, especially in economy.
- With both built with weight-saving carbon fiber technology, it’s not surprising the 787-10 is lighter, despite holding a row more of passengers.
- Weight and size always cost fuel. The difference in fuel burn is consistent with the difference in aircraft capabilities.
Boeing-Embraer venture in response to Airbus-Bombardier? Don’t count on it
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Introduction
Oct. 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: With the tie-up announced last Monday between Airbus and Bombardier for the CSeries, speculation immediately turned to whether Boeing and Embraer will join forces in some fashion in response.
The speculation is natural. Boeing and Embraer have had several commercial agreements, mostly on the defense side but also in eco-research. But as yet, there hasn’t been a tie-up involving the successful E-Jet program.
Embraer E195-E2.
Don’t look for anything soon that would be a meaningful response to the Airbus-CSeries deal.
Summary
- Boeing needs a response in the 125-150 seat sector in which the 737-7 MAX languishes and with which the CS300 competes.
- Boeing has no product offering in the 100-125 seat sector. Embraer doesn’t need Boeing’s help here. The E175-E1 continues to sell and it meets US Scope Clauses.
- The Embraer E2 program’s first delivery is April next year.
- Embraer isn’t about to proceed with a new airplane program in the 100-150 seat sector, which is Boeing’s product gap.