Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
737-7 MAX future appears to be niche, BBJ and military
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Introduction
Jan. 11, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The decision last week by Southwest Airlines to defer for four years delivery of 23 of 30 Boeing 737-7 MAXes does not bode well for this sub-type.
Concurrently, Southwest exercised options for 40 of the larger 737-8.
One of only four identified customers for the 7 MAX, with the largest order of 30, LNC considers it highly likely that a good portion of the 23 remaining orders will be
Boeing 737-7.
converted to the 8 MAX.
With only 63 identified 7 MAX orders, the aircraft risks becoming a narrowly purchased niche aircraft.
Summary
- Despite Boeing claiming in a trade complaint the 737-7 has a good future if Bombardier’s C Series is subject to 292% in tariffs, the airplane seems destined to be no more than a niche airplane with airlines.
- The largest customer for the 7 MAX is up-gauging.
- The 7 MAX future appears to be with business jets and military transports.
Is the Airbus A321LR a better NMA stopgap than the 767-300?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
January 04, 2016, © Leeham Co.: We have discussed if the Boeing 767-300ER could function as a stopgap until an NMA would be available. We then compared it with Boeing’s 787-8 and Airbus’ A330-800 as alternative stopgaps. We didn’t include any single-aisle alternatives at the time, like Airbus’ A321LR or Boeing’s 737 MAX 10.
These aircraft have limitations in passenger capacity and range compared with the 767. The least compromised aircraft in an NMA role is the A321LR, which comes within 1,500nm of the range of the 767-300ER. We, therefore, use it as our single-aisle alternative when we look at further stopgaps until an NMA arrives in 7-10 years.
Summary:
- The A321LR has 30% less passenger capacity than the 767-300ER when configured with comparable cabin standards.
- It also has 1,500nm less range than the 767-300ER.
- The operating costs on a trip and seat-mile basis are considerably lower, however.
- If the majority of planned routes are within the capability of the A321LR and other aircraft, with longer range, could complement it on the longest routes, it is a more economical alternative to a new 767, both on a Cash Operating Cost basis and when including capital costs.
- This assumes increased route frequency can compensate the higher capacity of the 767.
US Commerce confirms tariff on C Series; parties await ‘harm’ determination
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Introduction
Analysis
Dec. 21, 2017, © Leeham Co.: To absolutely no surprise, the US Department of Commerce yesterday confirmed its preliminary finding that the Bombardier C Series is illegally subsidized and the company illegally “price dumped” the airplane into the US with the 2016 order for 75+50 to Delta Air Lines.
Bombardier told the trade commission this is a “partially assembled” aircraft: it has no interior, IFE, etc. It flies but it’s not a completed aircraft. Photo via Google images.
The DOC confirmed its proposed tariffs of nearly 300% on every aircraft or “partially assembled” aircraft.
The confirmation came the day after Boeing, Bombardier, Delta and other interested parties testified before the US International Trade Commission (ITC) over whether Boeing was harmed by the Delta deal and one with United Airlines that Boeing won.
If the ITC determines there was “harm” to Boeing, the tariffs go into effect upon importation. If the ITC finds no harm, the DOC’s case becomes moot and no tariff is imposed.
When Bombardier ships its wings from the Belfast plant to Canada–or to the US, once the Alabama plant is completed–does this qualify as a “partially completed” aircraft? Nobody at this stage knows. Artwork via Google images.
As LNC reported yesterday, Bombardier said its proposed final assembly line in Alabama will proceed regardless of the ITC ruling. BBD claims this FAL means the C Series becomes a US-produced product, immune to tariffs. Boeing claims the FAL’s purpose is to circumvent the tariffs and a circumvention tariff should be levied in that case.
Summary
- This case is “uncharted territory,” says a trade lawyer.
- What’s the definition of a “partially assembled” aircraft?
- Appeals expected on ITC outcome.
- Bombardier’s “fatal error.”
Embraer’s improved E190-E2, analysis. Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
December 18, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Embraer is expecting certification soon for the first E2 E-Jet, the E190-E2. We covered our analysis of the changes from the original E190 to the E190-E2 in Part 1.
We now continue with the economic analysis. To check where the E190-E2 stand versus its competition, we include the Bombardier CS100 in the analysis.
Summary:
- The E-Jet E2 introduces a new wing, new engines and an advanced Fly-By-Wire system. Jointly these bring the fuel consumption of the E-Jet on par with the latest competition.
- Complementing the lower fuel costs are reduced maintenance costs. This is an important step to keep up with competing aircraft.
- Heavier engines and a larger wing increase the Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW) of the E190-E2. This increases underway and landing fees. If the extra range of the E2 is not needed, the higher fees can be avoided with the selection of a lower MTOW version.
Used A330-200s could be interim solution to NMA
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Introduction
Dec. 11, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing is considering restarting the 767-300ER passenger line as an interim aircraft to the New Midmarket Airplane.
Airbus is pushing the A330-800 or, alternative, new A330-200s are its solution to the upper end of the Middle of the Market sector.
There is another alternative, however: used A330-200s. There is an emerging supply of these as one airline plans a down-sizing and initial 10- to 12-year leases expire in the near future.
Etihad is planning to dispose of its Airbus A330-200s. These would make a good, potential pick-up by an airline seeking an interim solution while awaiting the New Midrange Aircraft. Photo via Google images.
Summary
- NMA EIS target remains 2025, Boeing says, as opposed to 2027, according to market sources.
- Regardless, timeline, production ramp-up indicates near-term need for newer airplanes.
- Business case for NMA still hasn’t closed; program launch still uncertain, but activities continue.
- Boeing 767 production ramp up studies underway, effective as soon as early 2020.
Embraer’s improved E-Jet E2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
December 07, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Embraer is four months from first service introduction of the new generation E-Jet, the E190-E2, with Norway’s Wideroe. Following the smooth E190-E2 program will be the larger E195-E2 in 2019.
Embraer’s E2 update of the E-Jet is more elaborate than the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX updates. In addition to new engines, the aircraft’s wings and systems are changed. In addition, the fuselages are stretched on two of the three models for increased passenger capacity.
We analyze the areas of change from the original E-Jets and what these mean for the operations and economics of the aircraft.
Summary:
- The E-Jet E2 keeps the strong point of the original E-Jet, its comfortable cabin, and improves other areas to keep the family competitive after 2020.
- As the only aircraft family in the market (regional or mainline), the E2 models E175, E190 and E195 all get their own optimized wings. The result is good field and range performance paired with low fuel consumption.
- The E2 family introduces advanced Digital Fly-By-Wire to allow reduced static stability and by it trim drag. This improves the fuel consumption further.
- Other system changes focus lower maintenance costs. The new single-aisle generation (A320neo, 737 MAX) lowers maintenance costs per seat. The regional OEMs must respond.
Boeing moves EIS target for NMA to 2027: sources
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Introduction
Dec. 4, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Officially, Boeing says the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, or 797) entry-into-service will be around 2024-25 if the program is launched.
LNC has learned the target date now being discussed is 2027.
Boeing 797 concept. Source: Boeing.
This means the 737 replacement likewise slips, with EIS after 2030 instead of late next decade or in 2030.
The new NMA target date, which we’ve heard from the supply chain and customer base, gives further impetus to the prospect of restarting the 767-300ER passenger production, a decision that is supposed to be made by the end of this year.
Summary
- Technology is at the heart of the new target EIS for the NMA.
- The 737 replacement was always intended to follow the NMA.
- Supply chain asked for 767 production rate ramp-up feasibility.
Boeing’s good year for wide-body orders
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Introduction
Nov. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Officials from Airbus and Boeing each said this year that wide-body orders, languishing for the past couple of years, should pick up by the turn of the decade as the in-service fleet reaches 20-25 years old.
Aerolineas Argentinas plans a wide-body competition for deliveries around 2020-2021. Photo via Google images.
But Boeing has had an exemplary year through Nov. 21, the most recent update of its Orders and Deliveries website. The company reported 160 net orders for the 767, 777 and 787, with 88 for the latter. Commitments for 40 more at the Dubai Air Show are not included, as these have not yet been firmed up.
Airbus hasn’t done nearly as well: just 56 net orders for the A330 and A350 families through October, its most recently reported data.
Have Boeing’s results indicated a sooner-than-expected uptick in orders?
Summary
- Not enough data to draw definitive conclusions, but uptick may be arriving early.
- Aerolineas Argentinas and Thai Airways are looking at wide-body aircraft orders. See the stories here and here.
- Early this year, 5-year slump was seen. By August, strong market seen.
Airbus A350-1000 certified. How good is it?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Airbus A350-1000 received its airworthiness certificate Tuesday, after a smooth flight test campaign. The first serial aircraft is in final assembly, for delivery to Qatar Airways next month.
With the A350-1000 now on the market, we check the efficiency difference between the A350-1000 and its main competitor, Boeing’s 777.
Figure 1. A350-1000 at cold weather testing in North Canada. Source: Airbus.
With the 777-8 five years away, we compare the A350-1000 to the present 777, the -300ER. The changed fuel prices create a different yardstick since our last comparison of the 777-300ER and A350-1000.
While at it, we also check how much better the A350-1000 score on costs versus the smaller A350-900.
Summary:
- The A350-1000 is the most efficient aircraft of the three.
- The A350-900 is smaller. It has Cash Operating Costs per seat mile which are close to the A350-1000.
- The 777-300ER is the most expensive to operate, also at today’s fuel prices. Pricing must be very aggressive to compensate operating cost differences to the A350-1000.
- With A350-1000 deliveries starting, the 777-300ER’s reign as the twin to have for 350-seat long range is ending.