Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
Business case for NMA remains uncertain
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Introduction
July 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We’re half way through 2017. Boeing reported orders through July 11, a week ago. Airbus won’t update its July orders until the end of the month.
Through July 11, Boeing reported 116 net wide-body orders: 15 for the 767, 33 for the 777 and 75 for the 787. Net cancellations of -7 for the 747 are included in the net 116 figure.
The 15 767s were not commercial models, however, but 767-2C tankers for the USAF.
Over at Airbus, none of China’s 40 commitments announced July 5 for 40 A350s are in the June summary, and won’t be in the Orders tally until the commitments turn into firm orders. Through June, airbus had net 26 widebody orders: three A330-200s and 29 A350-900. There were cancellations of four A330-800s and two A380s.
If the 40 China A350s were included, this would bring Airbus to 66 widebody orders, still well short of Boeing’s YTD figure.
Summary
- Airbus product gap widens as A330-200/800 stalls.
- Boeing 787 strength comes from 787-9; 787-8 remains minor player.
- Middle of the Market business case still unproved.
Pontifications: Mississippi’s aerospace footprint
By Scott Hamilton
July 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Living in the Seattle area, the highest profile, dominant industry is the commercial aerospace sector.
Boeing, of course, headlines just about everything when it comes to aviation.
Boeing’s competition is principally Airbus—or at least it used to be until Boeing claimed teeny tiny Bombardier, a company one-sixth the size of Boeing’s revenues, is poised to put Boeing out of business with BBD’s CSeries.
A380Plus: First analysis, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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July 10, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We went through the changes that are included in the Airbus A380Plus development study last week.
The study packages several improvements to the A380, improving the aerodynamics, increasing the passenger capacity and lowering maintenance costs.
The aim is to improve the cost per seat of the A380 to keep it competitive with the new Boeing 777-9. With the rundown of the improvements complete we now use our aircraft model to see if the cost per passenger can compete with the 777.
Summary:
- The A380Plus improvements makes the A380 competitive on Cash Operating seat mile Costs with the Boeing 777-9.
- The problem on how to fill the 70% larger A380 remains. It needs other solutions.
Qantas’ ultra-long haul dream, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
July 06, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In previous articles we have learned how to fly the challenging route Sydney-London direct. From a well-informed person in Qantas we learned not to fight the winds. We shall use them. If we fly intelligently we put a cap on the longest distance we fly, even on windy days.
The other way around, London to Sydney, is less of a challenge. The aircraft is blown down under by the winds.
Figure 1. Qantas planned URL routes with Great Circle distances. Source: Great Circle mapper.
Now we use our aircraft model to understand how Airbus’ A350-900ULR and Boeing’s 777-8 would cope with the route.
Summary:
- The ideas of Qantas did not stop with not fighting the winds.
- We also learned how to simplify the analysis process for URL aircraft and routes.
- Forget about cabins, seats and passengers. It’s all about the hauled weight.
A380Plus: First analysis
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 05, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus launched the A380Plus development study at the Paris Air Show. The study packages several improvements to the A380, aimed at increasing the capacity and lowering the cost per passenger. The idea is to offer the advantages of an A380neo without changing the engines.
Does this work? We published a first reaction here. We now take a closer look at what was presented and analyze how the package will influence the economics of the A380. Read more
Airbus augments A350-1000 capability
June 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus has quietly announced it will augment the payload and range capability of the Airbus A350-1000 when certified. The latest Aircraft Characteristics for Airport and Maintenance Planning guide (ACAP) for A350 increases the aircraft’s maximum weight before fuel is loaded and its maximum take-off weight.
At the same time, the A350-900ULR variant’s maximum take-off weight is now available as a standard weight variant (no 10).
Pratt & Whitney, rest of industry, await Boeing decision on NMA
June 1, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Pratt & Whitney, like the airlines, lessors, suppliers and competitors, awaits a decision by Boeing whether it will launch the New Midrange Aircraft for the Middle of the Market sector.
PW’s president, Bob Leduc, said the company is going through its business case studies
Bob Leduc, president of Pratt & Whitney. UTC photo.
even as it provides information to Boeing.
In an interview yesterday with Leduc and PW Commercial Engines president Chris Calio at PW’s pre-Paris Air Show media days near its West Palm Beach (FL) engine production facility, Leduc says the market size and the assumption Boeing will choose two engine makers to power the NMA are among factors that will drive the business case.
Here is a transcript of the interview on the NMA and other topics. The lead into the NMA evolved from a question about the aftermarket services PW—and Boeing—have as strategic profit-center goals.
Paris Air Show Preview
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Introduction
May 22, 2017, © Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show begins June 17, and few in the industry expect much in the way of orders this year.
The order cycle is on the downward side of the bell curve. Sustaining the 2,000, 3,000 or nearly 4,000 gross orders announced 2011-2013 simply couldn’t be achieved. The “order bubble” had to break, and it did. Last year, Airbus and Boeing reported some 1,400 orders between them.
Airbus guides that it will tough to achieve a 1:1 book:bill this year. Boeing is running about 1:1 book:bill so far but it also guides conservatively. Still, LNC thinks Boeing might surprise this year–and some of this could be at the Paris Air Show.
Leeham Co.’s new publication, Commercial Aviation Report, provides a Focus Report on the Air Show. This encompasses the expectations for Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, COMAC, Irkut, Mitsubishi, CFM, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce into one easy-to-read package.
The pre-airshow press briefings by the OEMs begin next week. We don’t expect any earth-shattering news from these and we wanted to get our views out ahead of these briefings.
Summary
- Boeing wants to launch the 737-10 MAX at the Paris Air Show. This could spur a group of orders that would give Boeing a rare win in the headlines vs Airbus on the latter’s home ground.
- Mitsubishi plans to have its MRJ90 at the Air Show. One airplane entered the paint shop for ANA colors–this might be the one making the appearance.
- Embraer expects to have its KC-390 there. Will the E195-E2 also make an appearance?
How Airbus can kill the Boeing 797
Artisit concept of the Boeing 797. Rendering via Google images.
May 10, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus can kill the business case for the prospective Boeing 797, the New Midrange Aircraft also known as the Middle of the Market Airplane,
- Reuter’s Tim Hepher has this story.
- CNN’s Jon Ostrower has this story.
All it has to do is move first, instead of waiting for Boeing to launch the 797, something considered likely next year.
If Airbus launched what is commonly called the A322, a larger, longer-range version of the A321neo, the new version would become a true replacement for the Boeing 757, meet economics of the smaller 797, which has a working title of the 797-6, at a much lower capital cost.
Could an NMA be made good enough? Part 6
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We have in several articles gone through the sizing of an NMA (New Midrange Aircraft). We looked at the fuselage, cabin, wings and engines. Now we will sum the exercises and look at the performance of the resulting aircraft.
Boeing is seriously considering launching an NMA. The key to the launch decision will be the airplane’s economics: for development and production as well as operation.
The idea is the NMA shall have “twin aisle comfort with single aisle economics.” We will now use or performance model to analyze if the final aircraft has these characteristics.
Summary:
- An NMA designed to the principles in our articles will have a seven abreast dual aisle cabin. The cabin will increase passenger comfort in the 200 to 260 seat range and speed ground operations.
- Careful design of the fuselage, paired with a modern wing and engines, would produce an NMA with “dual aisle comfort and single aisle economics.”