July 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Living in the Seattle area, the highest profile, dominant industry is the commercial aerospace sector.
Boeing, of course, headlines just about everything when it comes to aviation.
Boeing’s competition is principally Airbus—or at least it used to be until Boeing claimed teeny tiny Bombardier, a company one-sixth the size of Boeing’s revenues, is poised to put Boeing out of business with BBD’s CSeries.
Posted on July 17, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
By Bjorn Fehrm
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July 10, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We went through the changes that are included in the Airbus A380Plus development study last week.
The study packages several improvements to the A380, improving the aerodynamics, increasing the passenger capacity and lowering maintenance costs.The aim is to improve the cost per seat of the A380 to keep it competitive with the new Boeing 777-9. With the rundown of the improvements complete we now use our aircraft model to see if the cost per passenger can compete with the 777.
Summary:
Posted on July 10, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
By Bjorn Fehrm
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July 06, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In previous articles we have learned how to fly the challenging route Sydney-London direct. From a well-informed person in Qantas we learned not to fight the winds. We shall use them. If we fly intelligently we put a cap on the longest distance we fly, even on windy days.
The other way around, London to Sydney, is less of a challenge. The aircraft is blown down under by the winds.
Now we use our aircraft model to understand how Airbus’ A350-900ULR and Boeing’s 777-8 would cope with the route.
Summary:
Posted on July 6, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 05, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus launched the A380Plus development study at the Paris Air Show. The study packages several improvements to the A380, aimed at increasing the capacity and lowering the cost per passenger. The idea is to offer the advantages of an A380neo without changing the engines.
Does this work? We published a first reaction here. We now take a closer look at what was presented and analyze how the package will influence the economics of the A380. Read more
Posted on July 5, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
June 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus has quietly announced it will augment the payload and range capability of the Airbus A350-1000 when certified. The latest Aircraft Characteristics for Airport and Maintenance Planning guide (ACAP) for A350 increases the aircraft’s maximum weight before fuel is loaded and its maximum take-off weight.
At the same time, the A350-900ULR variant’s maximum take-off weight is now available as a standard weight variant (no 10).
Posted on June 27, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
June 1, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Pratt & Whitney, like the airlines, lessors, suppliers and competitors, awaits a decision by Boeing whether it will launch the New Midrange Aircraft for the Middle of the Market sector.
PW’s president, Bob Leduc, said the company is going through its business case studies
even as it provides information to Boeing.
In an interview yesterday with Leduc and PW Commercial Engines president Chris Calio at PW’s pre-Paris Air Show media days near its West Palm Beach (FL) engine production facility, Leduc says the market size and the assumption Boeing will choose two engine makers to power the NMA are among factors that will drive the business case.
Here is a transcript of the interview on the NMA and other topics. The lead into the NMA evolved from a question about the aftermarket services PW—and Boeing—have as strategic profit-center goals.
Posted on June 1, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
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May 22, 2017, © Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show begins June 17, and few in the industry expect much in the way of orders this year.
The order cycle is on the downward side of the bell curve. Sustaining the 2,000, 3,000 or nearly 4,000 gross orders announced 2011-2013 simply couldn’t be achieved. The “order bubble” had to break, and it did. Last year, Airbus and Boeing reported some 1,400 orders between them.
Airbus guides that it will tough to achieve a 1:1 book:bill this year. Boeing is running about 1:1 book:bill so far but it also guides conservatively. Still, LNC thinks Boeing might surprise this year–and some of this could be at the Paris Air Show.
Leeham Co.’s new publication, Commercial Aviation Report, provides a Focus Report on the Air Show. This encompasses the expectations for Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, COMAC, Irkut, Mitsubishi, CFM, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce into one easy-to-read package.
The pre-airshow press briefings by the OEMs begin next week. We don’t expect any earth-shattering news from these and we wanted to get our views out ahead of these briefings.
Posted on May 22, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
May 10, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus can kill the business case for the prospective Boeing 797, the New Midrange Aircraft also known as the Middle of the Market Airplane,
All it has to do is move first, instead of waiting for Boeing to launch the 797, something considered likely next year.
If Airbus launched what is commonly called the A322, a larger, longer-range version of the A321neo, the new version would become a true replacement for the Boeing 757, meet economics of the smaller 797, which has a working title of the 797-6, at a much lower capital cost.
Posted on May 10, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, CFM, GE Aviation, Middle of the Market, MOM, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
737-10, 737-9, 767-200, 767-300, 787-8, 797, 7M7, A321NEO, A322, Airbus, Boeing, CFM, GE Aviation, GTF, LEAP, MOM, NMA, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Safran
By Bjorn Fehrm
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April 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We have in several articles gone through the sizing of an NMA (New Midrange Aircraft). We looked at the fuselage, cabin, wings and engines. Now we will sum the exercises and look at the performance of the resulting aircraft.
Boeing is seriously considering launching an NMA. The key to the launch decision will be the airplane’s economics: for development and production as well as operation.
The idea is the NMA shall have “twin aisle comfort with single aisle economics.” We will now use or performance model to analyze if the final aircraft has these characteristics.
Summary:
Posted on April 27, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Boeing, CFM, Future aircraft, MOM, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce
7M7, A321LR, Airbus, Boeing, CFM, MOM, NMA, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
By Bjorn Fehrm
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April 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: After defining the fuselage and wings, it’s now time for the engines. We go through the sizing criteria for engines for airliners and find the size of engine that is needed for the NMA.
The NMA will need engines which are larger than the single aisle engines for Airbus’ A320neo and Boeing’s 737 MAX. But they will be smaller than the next size up for modern engines, the GEnx-2B for Boeing’s 747-8.
This means the NMA will need new engines, at least 50% larger than the present engines designed for A320neo and 737 MAX.
Summary:
Posted on April 20, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm