Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Farnborough: Orders on Day 3
July 18, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal: Firm orders had largely dried up by day three of Farnborough 2018, although Boeing could celebrate some big commitments for its Max narrowbody from Vietjet and four undisclosed customers. Elsewhere Bombardier won its first order of the show after Uganda’s flag carrier signed for CRJ900s.
Farnborough: NMA business case appears to weaken, evidence at air show indicates
Analysis
July 18, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: The biggest, longest-running story at this year’s Farnborough Air Show is about an airplane that doesn’t exist: the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA or 797).
And the underlying story that’s emerging from the buzz on the sidelines and interviews with key observers and industry participants is that Boeing’s business case for the airplane appears to be getting weaker, not stronger.
Farnborough: Day 2 orders tally
July 17, 2018 (c) Airfinance Journal: Day two of the Farnborough air show saw David Neeleman’s new US airline commitment for 60 Airbus A220-300 aircraft, a story that was first revealed by Airfinance Journal on 11 June. Embraer announced commitments for 270 aircraft from six customers.
Farnborough: First day order recap
By Alex Derber
July 16, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal: Day One of Farnborough 2018 belonged firmly to Boeing in terms of firm orders, although the US manufacturer saved up many of its largest announcements from deals done earlier in the year. Airbus, meanwhile, almost achieved parity if one includes softer commitments from airlines and lessors, although there were some speculative deals, notably a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for 17 A350s from Starlux, a Taiwanese start-up not yet in business.
Other noteworthy deals included lessor Jackson Square Aviation’s first new aircraft order and United decision to buy E175s rather than the newer E2 variant.
Farnborough: E190-E2 “quietest single aisle airplane in production,” boasts CEO
July 15, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: Embraer today revealed that the E190-E2 achieved better fuel burn than its target of 16%.
Flight tests showed fuel burn was 17.3% better than the E1, said Rodrigo de Souza, VP Marketing in a press briefing in advance of the official show opening tomorrow.
Wideroe Airlines, the launch operator of the E190-E2, now has three in service. De Souza said initial analysis of the operations show fuel burn is even better than the flight test results, but he declined to be specific until more operations are completed with more airplanes in a few months.
Embraer claims fuel burn is 10% better than the Airbus A220.
Wideroe’s small fleet has completed 800 flight hours at an average of seven hours a day. In eight out of 11 weeks, the fleet had 100% dispatch reliability, he said.
Pontifications: Final Farnborough forecast
Special Sunday edition of Pontifications.
By Scott Hamilton
July 15, 2018, © Leeham News: The Farnborough Air Show officially starts tomorrow, when airframers begin their public relations presentations and orders are announced.
As this is written on July 13, I’m doing a final update of what to expect from the show. It’s always risky making predictions. If they are overly optimistic or pessimistic, the predictor can look foolish.
But here goes.
LNC took its first forecast look June 25.
Bjorn’s Corner: Largest navigation change since radar, Part 5
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 13, 2018, ©. Leeham News: Last week we discussed ADS-B in capabilities and how the US second channel at 978MHz brings the bandwidth for many useful services.
Before we discuss what improvements in navigation ADS-B will bring long-term, let’s sidetrack to describe the present Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) and why it’s eventual replacement with ADS-B will improve air safety further.
Figure 1. A TCAS II display with warnings and advisories. Source: AeroSavvy.com
Airbus’ jetBlue A220 deal, first analysis
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
July 12, 2018, © Leeham News: The Airbus A220 won its first battle against Embraer’s E2 E-Jets, winning the order to replace 60 Embraer E190s at jetBlue. The airline held a telephone conference yesterday, presenting its choice of the A220 and explaining why it chose the A220.
JetBlue said in the call it was a close race. We analyze how close.
Summary:
- JetBlue showed the advantages the A220-300 would have against the incumbent E190. The expected improvement in costs of 25%-30% were identified.
- The airline wouldn’t be drawn on the difference between the A220-300 and Embraer’s E195-E2, the real competitor. Our performance model shows it’s a close race.
Future Mobile A220 final assembly line already pushing capacity
July 11, 2018, © Leeham News: The order for 60 Airbus A220-300s, when added to the order for 75 A220-100s by Delta Air Lines and the anticipated order for 60 A220-300s by USA start-up carrier Moxy Airlines, nearly fills out the new Mobile (AL) production line through 2024, an LNC analysis reveals.
Construction of the A220 Final Assembly Line (FAL) begins this year. The first delivery is planned for mid-2020.
JetBlue and Moxy show first deliveries in 2020, according to company documents. Delta’s deliveries begin this year from the Airbus Canada Montreal facility, but will shift to the Mobile plant.
What are the prospects for the Airbus A220?
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 11, 2018, © Leeham News.: With the CSeries repainted and rebranded in Airbus colors, will this change its fortunes? The aircraft has been on the market for 10 years and has not been a home run in term of sales.
We look at how the A220 fits in the Airbus lineup and the sales plan the Airbus leaders say they have for the aircraft.
