Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now June 9, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
The data behind Emirates’ choice of 787-10
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Yesterday we outlined the qualitative reasons why the Boeing 787-10 was selected for Emirates’ medium-range routes. Now we put figures behind the words.
We will quantify the weight and drag consequences of the tighter packaging of the 787 and discuss what it’s smaller wing means in field performance from a hot Dubai International Airport.
We use our airline performance model to give us the data, flying the aircraft over typical routes.
Summary:
- The A350-900 was designed for flights up to 15 to 20 hours.
- To make these bearable, Airbus decided to offer 18-inch seat width in the nine abreast economy cabin.
- Boeing went another route. It offered a slightly narrower fuselage and let the airlines decide between eight or nine abreast economy.
- Only Japanse ANA and JAL chose the base layout with eight abreast economy (and ANA has since switched to nine abreast economy for new deliveries).
- The result is an aircraft with lower empty weight and fuel burn (everything else being equal).
- For the 787-10, Boeing combined the tighter packaged fuselage with a wing optimised for flights up to 12 hours.
- The 787-10 consequently beats the A350-900 on efficiency for shorter routes.
Historic day at Dubai Air Show
Nov. 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It was an historic day for commercial aviation at the Dubai Air Show.
Airbus and Indigo Partners announced an order for 430 aircraft (the A320neo family), a record in units and in value ($49.5bn).
Boeing announced a huge order from flyDubai, an affiliate of Emirates Airline, for 225 737 MAXes. Value: $27bn.
Parenthetically, CDB Leasing firmed up an order for 90 A320neo family members announced at the Paris Air Show.
Why did Emirates choose Boeing’s 787-10?
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Emirates Airlines (Emirates) has finally decided which aircraft shall complement their long-range Boeing 777 and Airbus A380. The decision coming at this year’s Dubai Air Show was more surprising than the choice, Boeing’s 787-10.
We have already written about the Emirates selection. Now we go through in more detail, why the choice should surprise no-one.
Read more
Egyptair signs for up to 24 CS300s at Dubai Air Show
Nov. 14, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Despite the problems in the US over the Boeing trade complaint, or perhaps because of the resulting tie-up with Airbus, Bombardier has since landed two important deals for its C Series.
The first was an LOI for up to 61 (31 firm 30 option) from an unidentified European operator. Based on the announced list value, these are believed to be CS100s.
The latest comes from today’s Dubai Air Show from Egyptair, which announced an LOI for 24 (12+12) CS300s. Delivery dates weren’t announced.
Airbus’ A330 or Boeing’s 787 for LCC long haul?
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
November 09, 2017, © Leeham Co.: International Airlines Group’s (IAG) CEO, Willy Walsh, said in an Investor presentation last week “LEVEL (the group’s Long Haul LCC) is as well off with the Airbus A330-200 as with a Boeing 787.” He said the lower capital costs of the A330 compensates for the Dreamliner’s lower fuel burn.
As a proof, Walsh said IAG had run flight plans with their LEVEL A330 flying the same mission as a Norwegian 787 and configured as the Norwegian aircraft. The difference in fuel burn Barcelona-Los Angeles would be 6t. But this is easily compensated by the difference in capital costs.
Going forward, LEVEL has the possibility to switch to the 787, said Walsh. Our reaction is; why not include the A330neo in this discussion?
We decided to verify Walsh statements and also check why an A330neo wouldn’t be more appropriate than a 787.
Summary:
- The statement by Walsh about the difference in fuel burn between the A330 and the Dreamliner is correct.
- However, fuel cost is no longer the dominant cost in airline operations.
- We compare the total Cash Operating Costs (COCs) of the aircraft, then we view whether the COC difference between the types can be compensated with capital cost differences.
Why is Airbus A330-800 not selling?
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
November 02, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus A330neo flew its first test mission two weeks ago. The test aircraft was the bigger A330-900, the neo version of the A330-300. For the present A330, the sales and delivery of A330-300 (the 290-seater) and the A330-200 (the 246-seater) is almost even, 720 versus 650 (including 70 MRTT and Freighters for the -200). But sales of the -300 in recent years far outpaced the -200, for which sales virtually dried up.
For the A330neo version, the A330-800 is not selling at all. Six aircraft are on order for Hawaiian Airlines while 211 are ordered for the A330-900. Why?
A330-900 during its first flight. Source: Airbus.
We decided to use our performance model to understand why the smaller, longer range A330neo has fallen from grace.
Summary:
- The A330-800 flies longer and with lower fuel burn than the A330-900.
- But the differences are not large. And fuel costs are no longer a dominating cost in the overall cost picture.
- For other costs, the types are too similar. The A330-800 doesn’t have any scale advantages over the A330-900; only range, and the A330-900 is flying longer and longer.
Aviation journalist Ben Sandilands passes
Ben Sandilands
Oct. 31, 2017: Ben Sandilands, the cranky, crusty curmudgeonly writer of Australia’s Plane Talking (Crikey), died Friday after a long illness. He was 73. Cancer was the cause of death.
We only met Sandilands on a couple of occasions but avidly followed his blog for years.
He was controversial in Australia. Sandilands was a long-time critic of the Australian Transportation Safety Board and of Alan Joyce, CEO of Qantas Airways. His persistent criticism won him no friends in officialdom.
But having writing aviation for 60 years, Sandilands had sources through Australian aviation and often wrote penetrating pieces about whatever topic he happened to be pursuing at the time.
Assessing Alaska Air Group’s fleet requirements
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Introduction
Oct. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Alaska Airlines Group (AAG) acquired Virgin America (VA) and with it, Virgin’s exclusive fleet of Airbus A320ceos with orders for A320neos and A321neos.
With Alaska Airlines (AS) being an all Boeing 737 operator, the question immediately arose: what will AAG do with the Virgin fleet.
AAG CEO Brad Tilden strongly hinted the Airbuses will eventually go away. But on earnings calls, officials say they’re studying the matter and there’s plenty of time before they must decide since the first leases don’t begin rolling off until 2019.
Even if AAG decides to consolidate around the 737—an issue still very much in doubt—it won’t be any time soon.
The A320 leases continue to 2024. The leases for the new A321neos go longer: these are 12-year leases and they are non-cancellable. The A321neos will be around at least until 2030.
Singapore airlines increases order for 787-10
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
Oct. 26, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Singapore airlines increased its order for Boeing’s 787-10 from 20 to 39 this week. The first aircraft for the airline rolled off the assembly earlier this month. It will now be prepared for delivery, flying out to Singapore on the new year.
The 787-10 is essentially a 787-9 which can take more passengers. By it, the cost per passenger goes down.
How much better? By comparing with the closest competitor, Airbus A350-900, we can learn by how much.
We will use our performance model to compare the aircraft. It’s a bit apples and oranges, because the A350-900 is a long-range airliner with 8,000nm range, and the 787-10 sacrifices the range of the -9 variant to carry more passengers.
But it’s interesting to see how this sacrifice pays off in efficiency on the type of routes the 787-10 was designed for.
Summary:
- The 787-10 is optimized to carry 330 passengers out to 6,400nm. It does this with a well-packaged fuselage and the wing of the smaller 787-9.
- The A350-900 is larger. It has a larger wing, to fly longer. And its fuselage diameter brings more passenger comfort, especially in economy.
- With both built with weight-saving carbon fiber technology, it’s not surprising the 787-10 is lighter, despite holding a row more of passengers.
- Weight and size always cost fuel. The difference in fuel burn is consistent with the difference in aircraft capabilities.