Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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Tariff threats, China certification issues slow A220 sales
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May 23, 2019, © Leeham News, Toulouse: Airbus took over majority interest the Bombardier C Series July 1 last year. The company immediately announced 120 orders for the CS300, renamed the A220-300, at the Farnborough Air Show, but the deals had been in 
the works with Bombardier before the takeover.
Another flurry of orders was announced at the end of last year.
Since then, virtually nothing.
Tuesday at the Airbus Innovation Days, Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer said the threat of tariffs in the US and the lack of certification in China effectively shuts out two thirds of the world market to the A220.
Monday, tensions between Canada and the US eased a bit when the Trump Administration removed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. But Airbus remains a Trump target at the World Trade Organization over outstanding claims against Airbus for the A380 and A350.
A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO
#AirbusID
May 22, 2019, © Leeham News, Toulouse: The A380 is a success for Airbus despite being forced by the lack of market demand to decide to close the program in 2021, well short of break-even sales.
Guillaume Faury
Guillaume Faury, who took over as CEO in April from retiring Tom Enders, said at the Airbus Innovation Days pre-Paris Air Show briefing yesterday, that the A380 led the path to the successful development and production of the successful A350 and the transformation of Airbus into it is today.
Enders in February decided to end the program, which struggled for years to find buyers for the aircraft in an industry where airline preference shifted from bigger to smaller airplanes.
Faury, however, did not answer a question from Reuters’ aerospace reporter Tim Hepher that if Airbus considers the A380 a success why it refuses to repay German launch aid of more than $600m.
NMA is a briar patch, top Airbus salesman says
#AirbusID
May 21, 2019, © Leeham News, Toulouse: The chief commercial officer for Airbus half hopes Boeing will step into a briar patch and launch its long-discussed New Midmarket Airplane, but the real message is clear: leave well enough alone.
Left unsaid it Airbus doesn’t want to have to launch a new airplane of its own.
Christian Scherer, the chief commercial officer for Airbus, said he wouldn’t speak for Boeing when asked if Boeing “has” to launch the NMA because of the declining market share of the 737 MAX vs the A321neo and inferior range and field performance of the -9/10 MAXes. He questioned Boeing’s own position about the NMA.
He made these remarks on the sidelines of the annual Airbus Innovation Days pre-air show briefings.
“I’m not sure they have a unified position on it. What I want to say is that we are in a very competitive duopoly, which is great for our customers,” he said. “There’s competition everywhere. You don’t have to dominate one segment or the other segment. There’s quite healthy business in it for Boeing on the 737. There’s quite healthy business in it on bigger airplanes. I’m not sure they have to do anything. Do they want to do something? Yeah, maybe.”
Airbus has the “rock” and “hard place” for Boeing NMA
#AirbusID
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May 21, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus has a “rock” and a “hard place” facing any manufacturer that might want to bring a new airplane to the market.
So says Christian Scherer, chief commercial officer of Airbus, who made the declaration at the first day of the Airbus Innovations Days pre-Paris Air Show briefings today.
He called the A321neo the “rock” and the A330-800 the “hard place.”
His oblique reference to another manufacturer was, of course, Boeing and its prospective New Midmarket Airplane, or NMA.
Boeing was widely expected to announce Authority to Offer the NMA for sale during the Paris Air Show next month. The 737 MAX crisis understood to put off this decision until the MAX is returned to service.
In the Middle of the Market, there “isn’t a one solution fits all. Airbus has by far the most competitive solution,” Scherer said. In this market space, a flexible solution is required,” he said.” The A320/321 offers single aisle economics approaching wide-body range. The A330-800 is re-engined, providing Airbus a left-hook, right-hook solution.
These mature programs give Airbus the pricing flexibility.
This is not simple
By John Cox
John Cox
May 20, 2019, © Leeham News: The latest version of the Boeing 737 is the MAX. It has new engines, new flight deck screens and the latest in-flight entertainment systems for passengers. It is quite a change from the 737-100 that first entered service 51 years earlier in 1968.
After flying operationally for 15 months (May 2017 to October 2018), there was a loss of a 737 MAX 8 in Indonesia. Five months later, another MAX 8 crashed. Something was wrong. How could such a proven workhorse have two accidents in such a short time in very similar circumstances?
Pontifications: Mandate sim time for MAX return to the skies
May 20, 2019, © Leeham News: “Safety is our top priority.”
So says Dennis Muilenburg, CEO of The Boeing Co.
As stories drip, drip, drip out in The Seattle Times, New York Times, Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal and other media about Boeing’s development process of the 737 MAX, one can’t help but wonder otherwise.
Pilots weren’t told of MCAS. Switch functions were changed. Warning lights were inoperative, but the pilot manuals indicated otherwise. Boeing discovered one problem but didn’t tell the FAA for a year. A single point of failure. The absence of information about the MCAS in the pilot manual. A second software glitch is found in the flight control system. Boeing said it didn’t want to “inundate” pilots with information. Blaming the pilots for the accidents.
- Our paywall will be posted later than usual. Airbus Innovation Days begin today and we’ll be reporting from Toulouse.
- Ethiopian MAX crash simulations stun pilots: Aviation Week.
- MAX simulators didn’t replicate MCAS conditions: New York Times.
- Boeing corrects flawed simulator software: Reuters
- 737NG, MAX simulators were supposed to be the same: Leeham News.
But nothing is Boeing’s fault. There was no failure, no gap, no technical problem. Or so says Muilenburg.
Yet within one week of the Lion Air accident, in which Boeing pointed the finger at the pilots, Boeing was diving into the MCAS design.
It goes on and on.
If “safety is our top priority,” it’s time for Boeing to man up and do the right thing, regardless of the legal liabilities.
It’s time to back simulator training on MCAS before pilots can fly the MAX. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Why I wouldn’t hesitate to fly on the MAX after the fix
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 18, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We are now two months into the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX because of MCAS. Boeing announced yesterday it has finished the work on the fix and it’s now ready for FAA certification flights. Once FAA has certified the fix, the 737 MAX will return to the sky. At least this is how it used to be.
A lot of hesitation and distrust has come into the system since the March 13th grounding. Here’s why I wouldn’t hesitate to fly on the MAX after the fix.
How Boeing named, promoted the MAX in early days
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Introduction
May 16, 2019, © Leeham News: As a Congressional investigation into the Federal Aviation Administration’s oversight and certification of the Boeing 737 MAX development ramps up, LNA dipped into its archives to review what the company was telling the public.
The MAX was hastily launched in July 2011, when American Airlines informed Boeing it was about to place a record-setting order for nearly 500 airplanes. Airbus was lined up to snare it all with the A320ceo and neo families unless Boeing could make a credible offer.
Within 48 hours, Jim McNerney, then-CEO of Boeing, made the decision to launch the re-engined design of the 737. This later was branded the MAX.
It was a plane Boeing designed but didn’t want to build.
Once launched, Boeing had to play catch up to Airbus, which had a seven month lead with its neo. The public messaging was long on bashing the A320. There were few technical details presented in public, but the basis for what’s become in focus today after two fatal crashes was there.
Summary
- Boeing promoted commonality between NG and MAX.
- Making a virtue of basic design.
- Integrating the larger engines.
- Promoting the same simulators.
Pontifications: By accident of timing, convergence of events, Mitsubishi is now well positioned to become major RJ player
May 13, 2019, © Leeham News: The regional jetliner industry is on the cusp of a major shift.
Bombardier is exiting commercial aviation. The company already is under contract to sell the Q400. It’s CRJ program is for sale, or lacking any, inevitably headed for termination.
Embraer agreed to spin off its Commercial Aviation division into a new joint venture with Boeing. Its E-175 E2, designed with changes to the US Scope Clause in mind, is too heavy to comply with contract restrictions. The predecessor, the E-175 E1, is Scope-compliant but it also is aging technology.
Neither the Sukhoi SSJ100 nor the COMAC ARJ-21 are serious competitors.
Mitsubishi, beset by five of delays that pushed its MRJ90 seven years behind schedule, has been dismissed by most as too little, too late, too heavy and not Scope compliant.
Yet MITAC, as Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp is known, has quietly reworked the MRJ into a Scope-compliant “concept” aircraft that will be revealed at the Paris Air Show next month.
Officials said the aircraft, the name for which hasn’t yet been revealed, will be the only new generation, Scope-compliant aircraft, positioning Mitsubishi to become a key player in the regional aircraft industry.
Boeing to support MAX simulator demo (Update)
- Boeing CFO meetings show confidence in recertifying MAX sooner than later.
- Returning to pre-grounding production rates will be “gradual.”
- FAA clearance anticipated in 4-5 weeks.
- Boeing will urge pilots, regulators to witness simulations of MCAS flight characteristics.
- NMA, 777X delays likely.
UPDATE: Cowen & Co issued a revised note today, with new language concerning simulations of the MCAS flying characteristics. Boeing is not urging sim training. Rather, it is urging regulators and pilots to go to sites where MAX MCAS flying characteristics may be witnessed and understood. Cowen tells LNA it misunderstood what Boeing said.
May 10, 2019, © Leeham News: In a sign that Boeing is confident it’s on track with the fix of the MCAS for its 737 MAX, the chief financial officer of the company Wednesday and Thursday made the rounds in New York and Boston with aerospace analysts and key institutional investors.
Greg Smith
Coming out of these meetings is news that Boeing will support simulator training for pilots to fully understand MAX handling characteristics, one analyst reports.
Greg Smith gave the financial analysts Boeing’s latest thinking about progress in returning the MAX to the skies across the globe. He also said Boeing is using the production slowdown (from 52/mo to 42/mo) to allow suppliers, notably engine maker CFM, to catch up from their own delays and strains. The suppliers maintained the 52/mo rate.
Spirit Aerosystems said it hopes that CFM, which has been running two-three weeks late with engines–will return to rate 52 in June. This is faster than suppliers were told by Boeing when the rate was cut in April. At that time, June’s rate ramp up was goal was 47/mo, with 52 in August and 57/mo in September. Boeing last year planned rate 57 in June this year.