Paris Air Show, Day 1: Ramp walk

June 14, 2015, Paris Air Show: While waiting for the Bombardier “reveal” of its new CS100 and CS300, each at the air show for the first time, LNC’s Bjorn Fehrm and I walked the ramp. Many airplanes had not yet arrived. As we strolled down the ramp, Fehrm provided some commentary in the videos below.

But before going to the videos, on June 13, there was a little news about the prospective Airbus A380neo. The Sunday Times of London reports that Airbus has asked for repayable launch aid for development of the A380neo. Most of the article is behind the paywall, but the gist is in the preview.

Now to the ramp walk.

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Widebody sales prospects this year

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Introduction

June 3, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Sales of widebody jets have slowed going into the Paris Air Show in under two weeks. Airbus sold six A330-200s, four A330-200Fs and

Boeing hopes to make a sale to Emirates Airlines later this year for the 787-10, giving a boost to this program and acing out Airbus in the process.

25 A330-900s, or 35 widebodies. No A350s. No A380s. Boeing sold three 747-8s, one 767, 25 777 Classics and (net) 34 787s, or 63 widebodies.

But we expect sales to pick up for the second half of the year, propelled by what appears to be enticing hints by Airbus that it may have finally achieved sales from China for its long-stalled A330ceo Regional airliner.

But the big prize, the Emirates Airlines order for 50-100 Airbus A350s or Boeing 787-10s (the number varies), is likely a late-in-the-year deal. There are a couple of others of decent size being competed as well.

And then there is the prospect of the launch of the Airbus A380neo.

Summary

  • Airbus looks to Air Show to boost orders
  • Boeing continues to hope 777F will save the day on the Classic
  • Deals by year-end hoped for.
  • Next big opportunity: the Dubai Air Show.

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Pontifications: re-engining airliners and the A380

Hamilton (5)

By Scott Hamilton

June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show begins in two weeks. One thing that won’t happen is the launch of the Airbus A380neo.

We still think it will happen, though at a later date.

Re-engining the A380 is highly controversial. The A380 is the plane critics love to hate. You can argue whether it should have been built in the first place. You can argue whether it was 10 years too soon. You can argue whether Airbus misjudged the size of the market. You can even argue its passenger appeal. I haven’t flown on the A380 yet, so I can’t speak from personal experience on the latter. I’ve previously discussed the other points.

You can argue whether the airplane should be re-engined. Leeham News concluded in January 2014 Airbus really had no choice but to re-engine the A380 if it wants to continue offering the model. If done inexpensively (a relative term, to be sure), it makes sense given the arrival around 2020 of the Boeing 777-9. It’s when design creep happens that trouble arises. Just ask Boeing on the 747-8.

Emirates Airlines says it will buy up to 200 A380neos if Airbus proceeds. Qatar Airways expresses interest. Lufthansa Airlines said a neo is needed to keep the A380 viable in the future, though it hasn’t taken the next step of saying it will buy more.

Re-engining is hardly new. Let’s take a look. Read more

Paris Air Show: Qatar and others

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Introduction

June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. It could be called the Qatar Airways Air Show.

Qatar Airways plans to have five airliners on display at the Paris Air Show in two weeks: the Airbus A319, A320, A350, A380 and the Boeing 787. The carrier hasn’t announced whether it will provide an aerial display as it has at previous air shows, but Qatar may well have more airliners there than Airbus or Boeing.

As for manufacturers other than Airbus and Boeing, we don’t expect anything of consequence from these.

Summary

  • Irkut, COMAC, Mitsubishi, Sukoi and ATR are other major aircraft producers that will be at the Paris Air Show.
  • Engine makers CFM International, GE Aviation, Rolls-Royce, Pratt & Whitney and Engine Alliance will also be there.
  • An update on Airbus expectations.

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Bjorn’s Corner: Airbus Innovation days, activities and program updates.

By Bjorn Fehrm

By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction

28 May 2015, C. Leeham Co: I am in Toulouse today attending Airbus Innovation days for Leeham News. It has been a good day’s briefings and I have presented what was perhaps the biggest change since we last met Airbus in the article “Airbus A350-1000 getting real”.

Apart from this program, there were more standard updates on Airbus other activities and programs. Here follows a rundown on these updates in a more paraphrased form.

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Paris Air Show: Embraer

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Introduction

May 25, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show this year isn’t expected to be a big venue for orders from Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier (although since ouir Airbus Preview, an official now says there will be a “significant number” of orders at the PAS).

Embraer isn’t expected to do much out of the ordinary. One of what we call the Big Four Airframe OEMs, EMB’s priority this year is garnering orders for the E-Jet E1 to fill out the production gap to the E2.

Summary

  • Filling the production gap between the E-Jet E1 and E2;
  • Firming up E2 commitments;
  • Revealing a new marketing campaign.

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Paris Air Show: Bombardier

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Introduction

March 17, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: Bombardier and air shows just don’t get along.

In 2009, there was wide anticipation at the Paris Air Show that BBD would announce a deal with Qatar Airways for 20 CS300s. The contract was ready. Instead, Qatar ordered a combination of Airbus A319/320neos after the French government pressured the Qatari government to avoid giving the CS300 a major boost on French soil. Given how persnickety Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al Baker later proved to be with Airbus, Boeing and Pratt & Whitney, Bombardier is probably lucky this deal collapsed.

But subsequent air shows proved no better for BBD. Expectations arose and were inevitably dashed.

One reason: under Canadian law, orders and even letters of intent and MOUs must be announced within 24 hours. But BBD just couldn’t seem to make a sale. We’ve written several times about circumstances that went beyond BBD’s ability to control events, but clearly there was something more fundamentally wrong that this year, at long last, is being addressed through executive changes and corporate restructuring.

What does this mean for BBD at the Paris Air Show this year?

Summary

  • Don’t expect much in the way of orders.
  • Look for detailed information about the CSeries flight test performance and results.
  • CSeries will make a big appearance at the show.
  • The new executive team will be equally on display.

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Paris Air Show: Boeing

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Second in a Series of Previews for the Paris Air Show.

Introduction

May 10, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Don’t expect Boeing to come away from the Paris Air Show next month with a ton of orders. It never does; this is Airbus’ home turf.

Although Boeing has said over and over and over again that it doesn’t hold back orders to announce at air shows, the fact is that it does, both for its own public relations value and at the behest of customers. Is this as aggressive as Airbus? No, but we know from talking with customers and with Boeing’s own personnel that Boeing is just as aware of the air show PR value as is Airbus.

That being said, what can we expect from Boeing at the air show? A little bit here. A little bit there. But not a whole lot. The order cycle has flattened (though it’s certainly not collapsed) and the wide-body campaigns that are underway probably won’t be ready for Paris.

Summary

  • Look for “Unidentifieds” to be revealed to bolster air show numbers, though this will be strictly a PR exercise;
  • Watch the 737 MAX 200–so far only Ryanair has ordered this variant;
  • Closely watch whether new orders for the 777 Classic are forthcoming; last week’s Swiss order, for three, were already accounted for in the Unidentifieds;
  • 777 Classic production gap is much larger than generally recognized;
  • Don’t expect much in the way of 777X orders; there are active campaigns but these probably won’t be ready by Paris;
  • It’s doubtful if there will be many 787 orders; the backlog stream is just too far out to prompt airlines to commit right now; and
  • Nothing on the Middle of the Market airplane or (probably) the 747-8I.

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Paris Air Show Preview: Airbus

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Introduction

May 3, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show is June 15-19 for the trade/industrial portion. Beginning this week, Leeham News and Comment will provide our Airbus_logo_3D_BlueMarket Assessment and insight about what to expect. We begin this weekly exercise by looking at Airbus. Future posts will look at Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer and other major players at the PAS.

Summary

  • First, an overarching look at what to expect;
  • What to expect for Airbus at the show;
  • The future of the A380neo;
  • Outlook for the A330ceo/neo; and
  • Outlook for the A321LR.

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