Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing’s Product Certification Timelines and Challenges
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By the Leeham News Team
April 18, 2022, © Leeham News: US Rep. Peter DeFazio, the chairman of the House Transportation Committee, is on record opposing a certification extension for the Boeing 737-10 Max. Under legislation previously passed by Congress, Boeing has until the end of this year to certify the MAX 10.
Boeing 737-10. Source: Boeing.
DeFazio is a Democrat from Oregon who is not seeking reelection this year. He was a fierce critic of Boeing during the House hearings of the MAX crisis. His opposition to extending the certification timeline for the MAX 10 is bad news for Boeing. It was the path of least resistance to completing the Max 10 certification without implementing a new Engine Indicating and Crew Alerting System (EICAS) system on the airplane. Requiring EICAS will greatly complicate the certification path and future crew training differences with the rest of the 737 Max models..
How did we get here?
In the wake of the two MCAS-related 737 losses, Congress passed new laws regarding Aviation Safety. The most sweeping of them was the Aircraft Certification, Safety, and Accountability Act. This is a broad stroke law addressing 37 different portions of the FAA’s review process. It changes a great many things inside Boeing as well as inside the Federal Aviation Administration.
Let’s look through these changes and see how the process changes will impact things.
An A330neo freighter, should it happen? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 14, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we speculated that Airbus might decide to upgrade the present A330-200F freighter to a neo variant based on the longer -900 fuselage.
To understand how competitive it would be, we compare its economics to the 787, 767-300F, and A330-200F freighters.
Summary
- Airbus’s A330-900F would be a modest upgrade project, as all bits needed are in production today.
- The result would outcompete all present midrange freighters and give a 787 freighter a match in the market.
An A330neo freighter, should it happen?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we started a discussion on what should be Airbus’ response to a 787 freighter. We have seen in a series of articles that the 787 freighter would beat the present A330 freighter, and the question is, will Airbus leave this segment to Boeing, or will it respond?
We look at what’s involved for Airbus to upgrade the present A330-200F to a neo freighter and what performance it would have compared to a 787 freighter.
Summary
- An upgrade of Airbus’ present A330-200F freighter to a neo variant based on the longer, more capable A330-900 would be a modest project for Airbus. All the special bits needed were developed for the A330-200F.
- The resulting A330-900F would be a competitive freighter, and as all needed parts are in serial production today, it could hit the market before a Boeing 787 freighter.
Assessing passenger airline fuel efficiency
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
April 4, 2022, © Leeham News: Fuel prices abruptly increased just as travel restrictions started easing after the Covid-19 Omicron wave. The oil price increase accelerated after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. What would have seemed unthinkable 20 months ago has arrived: fuel prices are back to their 2010-14 levels.
Most airlines are still healings their wounds from the Covid-19 pandemic. Higher fuel prices are an unwelcome feature that will delay their return to profitability if not significantly complicate it.
Considering the above, LNA thought it relevant to assess the fuel efficiency of the major passenger airlines’ fleets.
Summary
- The paradox and challenges of fuel hedging;
- Explaining the fuel efficiency score methodology;
- Twin-aisle, single-aisle, and regional airline rankings.
A Boeing 787 Freighter, Airbus response
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March. 31, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week’s article showed that a Boeing 787 freighter based on the -9 variant would be a suitable replacement for the aging 767-300F.
Should Boeing proceed with the aircraft, expect Airbus to launch a competing airplane, it not launch it before the American OEM.
The A330-200F recorded 38 sales as a factory freighter, a disappointing tally. Which aircraft variant could Airbus use as a baseline to develop a more successful 787F competitor?
Summary
- A nuanced view on 767-300F and A330-200F factory sales;
- Need for suitable older-generation aircraft replacement;
- Limitations of A330 P2Fs;
- A potential candidate.
An uneven financial recovery among OEMs
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March 28, 2022, © Leeham News: In an article last year, LNA highlighted the significant impact the COVID-19 pandemic had on the financials of commercial aviation OEMs. Most recorded sizable losses and charges.
The OEMs entered into a recovery mode in 2021. Airbus intends to aggressively increase its A320neo family production rates to satisfy a strong demand, while Boeing must clear large 737 MAX and 787 backlogs.
The impact of changing production rates takes time to ripple through the supply chain. LNA collected financial information on the big three aircraft manufacturers and seven major commercial aircraft suppliers to assess how quickly they are recovering from the most significant shock since World War II.
Summary
- Significant differences among the three major aircraft OEMs;
- Twin-aisle engine OEMs lagging;
- Varying levels of profitability among OEM suppliers;
- Supply chain challenges to monitor and the war factor.
A Boeing 787 freighter, which model and how good? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 24, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we discussed the creation of a Boeing 787 freighter. It shall replace the Boeing 767-300F, which is running into emission rule problems in 2027.
After looking at what 787 variant makes for the best freighter, we now compare the economics of the 787, 767-300F, and A330-200F freighters.
Figure 1. The 767-300F freighter (top) and its possible replacements: 787-8F (middle) and 787-9F (bottom). Source: Leeham Co.
Summary
- When a Boeing 787 freighter arrives at the decade’s end, its economics will change the freighter market’s dynamics.
A Boeing 787 freighter, which variant and how good?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 17, 2022, © Leeham News: Monday, we started a series of articles discussing a possible Boeing 787 freighter. It shall replace the Boeing 767 freighter, one of Boeing’s most-produced models, with over 200 factory freighters delivered.
We use our Airliner Performance Model to understand which 787 variant would be most suitable as a base for a freighter and what performance it would have.
Figure 1. Would a 767-300F replacement (top) be a 787-8F (middle) or 787-9F (bottom)? Source: Leeham Co.
Summary
- Boeing can build a very competitive freighter on the 787 base.
- We analyze which of the different 787 models is the most suitable and predict payload, range, and economics.
Is the 787-8 a freighter of the future?
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By the Leeham News Team
March 15, 2022, © Leeham News: Is the 787-8 a freighter of the future?
Boeing 767-300ERF (top), and concepts of the Boeing 787-8F and Boeing 787-9F. Source: Leeham News.
There will be a glaring hole in Boeing’s freighter offerings by the end of 2027. The cause will be the inability for Boeing to sell aircraft that do not meet emission standards adopted in 2017 by ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organization, effective in 2027. This will put an end to the current Boeing 767 and 777 freighters. Boeing launched the 777-8F last month, solving the latter problem. But unless some magic occurs, and extensions are granted, Boeing will need to fill the 767 gap with something.
767F faces production extinction; Boeing ponders 787F, market says
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March 14, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing’s launch of the 777-8F program, with an entry-into-service of 2027, solves part of its freighter challenges.
But it still faces the question of what to do with its aging 767-300ERF.
Both airplanes face a 2027 deadline by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) that limits emissions and noise for today’s in-production aircraft. The 777-200LRF and 767-300ERF fail the new standards.
ICAO crafted the new standards in 2017. Aircraft that fail to meet them must go out of production from 2028 unless an exemption is granted. It’s left to the member governments to formally adopt and enforce the standards—or grant an exemption to them.
Boeing 767-300ERF (top). Concepts of Boeing 787-8F and Boeing 787-9F (middle and bottom). Source: Leeham Co.
The 777-8F solves the upper end of the problem for Boeing. The airframer is seeking an exemption for the smaller 767-300ERF. Industry officials think it unlikely Boeing would receive an indefinite exemption. But a short-term exemption to bridge to another airplane is viewed as possible.
LNA learned in January Boeing is considering developing a freighter out of the 787. Stan Deal, the CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, confirmed at the Singapore Air Show last month that this study is underway.
With Airbus for the first time in its history offering a new-build freighter that is seen as not only competitive to Boeing airplanes but in some quarters viewed as superior, Boeing’s decades-long dominance for cargo aircraft is under serious threat for the first time.
LNA has undertaken an analysis of the 787-8, 787-9, and 767-300ERF to look at which model makes the most sense for Boeing to pursue. LNA’s Bjorn Fehrm will detail our analysis later this week. Today, we’ll look at the background and strategic issues for a second production Boeing freighter.