Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing’s steps toward its next new airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
June 6, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing will launch a new airplane program, vows David Calhoun, CEO of The Boeing Co. Stan Deal, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA), said Boeing is going through the “prerequisites” for a new airplane, according to Bloomberg news. Skeptics remain doubtful, noting research and development spending remains at historic lows and definitive action remains out of sight.
Boeing’s next new airplane could be a twin-aisle, similar to the New Midmarket Airplane concept, or a single aisle to complement the 737-10 more along the lines of a 757-200 and 757-300. Photo credit: Leeham News.
“The dilemma for Boeing is whether to wait to see if the new technology pans out, ‘or do we run the propulsion system one more time before we go to that next technology suite?’ Deal said in a virtual panel discussion hosted by the Royal Aeronautical Society,” Bloomberg reported in January. Calhoun, in an appearance at Bernstein Research Friday, said engines aren’t advanced enough for a new airplane to counter the Airbus A321neo.
Nevertheless, if one looks carefully, steps moving toward a new airplane program are there. LNA analyzed Boeing’s recent job hiring spree, which includes engineers, technicians, and other positions. Some of these are specifically for new airplane jobs. Boeing last year spent millions of dollars above contract requirements with SPEEA, its professional union, to retain engineers and technicians. Last year, Boeing named a new leader for its Digital Design Team for a new airliner. The Design Team recently studied lessons learned from defense programs for application to BCA.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 22P. Fuel Cell system efficiency and mass. The deeper discussion.
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June 3, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 22, Fuel Cell system efficiency and mass. It analyses the power, loss, mass, and efficiency consequences of the different fuel cell architectures described in the main article.
One or Two hops cheapest for long flights? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 2, 2022, © Leeham News: We tested the notion that it’s more economical to divide a long flight into two shorter flights last week. The test was a typical long-range flight of 11 to 12 hours.
We found that if all operational costs are counted (the so-called Cash Operating Costs, COC), the theory didn’t work. You gain on fuel costs, but you are doubling other costs like landing fees, etc.
Now we test the theory on an Ultra Long Range (ULR) flight, using our Performance and Operational Cost model.
QANTAS 787-9. Source: QANTAS
Summary
- The widespread idea of two shorter flights being more economical than a single long flight applies to ULR flights.
- The theory says this is because a long flight takes more fuel than two shorter flights. It’s not the main reason why the theory holds for ULR flights.
Boeing’s hiring spree points to progress toward Next Boeing Airplane
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By the Leeham News Team
May 30, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing is hiring again.
Boeing’s hiring spree is aimed at replacing engineers, technicians, retirees and jobs lost in Russia and Ukraine. But an analysis also points to gearing up for the Next Boeing Airplane. Photo Credit: Leeham News.
The pendulum of staffing swings back and forth in the aerospace industry.
Today’s hiring events are one of several steps beyond the highly visible need to deliver airplanes required to rebuild Boeing. Rebuilding its brain drain and positioning itself for its next new airplane is another required step. Repairing the damage to its once-gold standard safety reputation is another. Boeing also is moving to fix this issue.
Historically, companies chase the proper mix of employees and never get it right. The reason for the personnel churn is the nature of the skills needed and the timing of their need.
In an attempt to get ahead of this problem, Boeing spent millions of dollars last year to retain SPEEA-represented engineers and technical employees at the Everett final assembly site. This reverses a decades-long trend to downsize the employed workforce through outsourcing or shifting union jobs from Washington State to out-of-state locations.
To understand why this happens, we need to look at the cascading of work through the Commercial Airplanes division starting with a single product.
One or Two hops cheapest for long flights?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 26, 2022, © Leeham News: There is a notion that it’s better to fly a long flight in two hops rather than one long flight. The idea is that the plane has to carry extra fuel to bring the fuel for the last bit of the long flight, increasing its drag due to weight.
So far, the theory. Is it also the case in practice? We use the Leeham airliner performance and cost model to find out.
LEVEL is an example of the long-haul low-cost operator we look at. Source: IAG.
Summary
- The widespread hypothesis of two shorter flights being more economical than a single long flight needed a check.
- When we check it with an operational cost model that considers all cash costs, we conclude the hypothesis does not apply to normal long-range flights.
Assessing the airline financial recovery around the globe
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
May 23, 2022, © Leeham News: A significant number of airlines started reporting their fiscal 2021 earnings. Most saw an improved financial performance, but still a far cry from the pre-Covid days.
The differences in financial performance depend on geography and airline business model. Some carriers saw a meaningful recovery, while others had a financial performance not very different from 2020. A few airlines also saw better profitability than before the Covid-19 pandemic.
LNA analyzes airlines’ earnings globally and compares them with their pre-Covid results.
Summary
- The Americas leading the revenue recovery, with a notable exception;
- Europe lagging behind the Americas;
- Asian carriers stuck in low gear;
- The peculiarity of cargo airlines.
Impact of Russian Airspace Closure on the World’s longest flight
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 19, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at what the closure of Russian airspace would mean for a mid-European cargo airline. A cargo plane has a shorter range, and the difference in flight distance meant that the cost of transporting cargo from Far-East to West Europe increased considerably as cargo payload was reduced.
We now check what the Russian airspace closure means for the World’s longest flight, Singapore Airlines flight SQ23/SQ24 between New York and Singapore.
Summary
- The flight from New York to Singapore has changed the routing after the 24th of February. It now avoids Russian and Ukrainian airspace.
- It results in a longer flight but the cost increase shall not pose a profitability problem on this premium route.
Start-up nears airport Aircraft Towing System tests
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By Scott Hamilton
May 16, 2022, © Leeham News: A start-up company is 60-90 days away from landing a contract with a US airport to install a prototype system that will pull airplanes around the field, eliminating taxiing with engines or tugs.
The ATS airport channel system. Source: ATS.
ATS Worldwide (for Aircraft Towing System) proposes a network of trench-like guides equipped with a flexible tow mechanism that captures the nose gear to tow airplanes from the regional jet to the Airbus A380. It’s all done with automation. No new equipment, other than a nose camera, is added to the airplane. This eliminates added weight and complexity, or the need for a Supplemental Type Certificate, proposed by Wheel Tug. No external tug, like Taxibot, takes the airplane to the end of the runway. This eliminates airfield conflicts, ATS said during the Aviation Week MRO Americas conference last month in Dallas.
But constructing a network of towing trenches from the gate, across the ramp, to the taxiways and the runways, presents its own challenges. Constructing the network won’t be inexpensive. Funding sources must be identified. The Federal Aviation Administration and other regulators must be convinced that the system will be safe. Regulatory standards must be prepared.
And the elephant in the room will be the reaction from unions whose ground handlers, wing walkers, etc., face losing jobs or fewer jobs.
The big advantages: eliminating the need for hundreds of tugs at an airport. Reduction in fuel required to taxi airplanes, major cost savings for the airlines. A reduction in emissions, a growing goal, especially in Europe and the USA. Finally, there can be lower headcounts by the airlines and airports, another cost savings.
Implementation, if all goes well, is years away. But a prototype system for proof-of-concept is expected to be activated at the Ardmore (OK) airport in 60-90 days. At least three major hub airports are reviewing proposals for initial demonstration projects as well, ATS says.
Impact of Russian Airspace Closure for mid-European freight airlines
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 12, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at what the closure of Russian airspace would mean for a mid-European airline that flies to Asia destinations like Japan, Korea, or Mainland China.
Air France now flies the routes from East Asia south of Russian airspace instead of over Siberia. The route is longer which increases the operating costs, but with the examples Boeing 777-300ER, there are no restrictions on passenger load factors, and most times, the cargo space can be loaded to the volume limit.
For a freight airline flying similar routes, the added distance impacts payload, as freighters have about 2,000nm less range than their passenger siblings. We check the operating cost and payload impact for mid-European freighter airlines flying from Far-East freighter hubs to West Europe.
Summary
- A freighter airline takes a heavier hit from Russian airspace closure.
- As the extra distance eats into the possible payload, the operating cost per tonne for hubs like Shanghai, Seoul, and Taipei increases more than for the airline’s passenger service.
Mind the gap between announced and actual production rates
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
May 9, 2022, © Leeham News: As passenger traffic is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in the Americas and Western Europe, many airlines are eager to take delivery of more fuel-efficient aircraft. Higher oil prices and ambitious plans to reduce carbon emissions are driving new-generation aircraft demand, notably for the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families.
A combination of supply chain disruptions and challenges associated with increased production means that Airbus and Boeing aren’t ramping-up A320neo and 737 MAX production as much as they would like. Boeing fell short last year on its 737 MAX production targets. The American company is also dealing with multiple delays in the resumption of Dreamliner deliveries.
In recent years there have been significant gaps between announced and actual production rates. The gaps have a material impact on projected OEM revenues, cashflows, and incomes.
LNA analyzes aircraft production rates on all the Airbus and Boeing programs since 2010 to assess whether the gaps were as significant in the past. LNA also evaluates the programs that were the closest and furthest away from announced production plans.
Summary
- A metric to measure production line consistency;
- Relatively consistent Single-Aisle rates;
- More volatile twin-aisle rates;
- A more consistent OEM.