Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now June 9, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
How Boeing’s T-X and NMA are connected
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 1, 2018, © Leeham News.: Boeing and its partner SAAB Thursday won a $9.2bn U.S. Air Force T-X Pilot Training contract. It was a win for its Defense, Space & Security division, yet it will have major implications for Boeing’s Commercial Airplane (BCA) division and the NMA.
The NMA will change the way Boeing develops, produces and supports airliners. The T-X is the pilot for this change.
Loose concept of the Boeing NMA. Source: The Air Current.
Summary:
- The focus of Boeing for the NMA is faster and lower cost development, cheaper production and an extended support offering.
- The Military T-X program pilots the work practices needed to make this possible.
What costs dominate an airliner’s operation? Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 27, 2018, © Leeham News.: Over the last week’s we have looked at the costs for a typical Mainline and LCC airline operating in the US, Europe and Asian markets. The costs have been Direct Operating Costs (DOC) for the average routes operated by these airlines.
Now we finish the series with a look at the seat-mile costs so the Narrowbody and Widebody aircraft economics can be compared on routes both can serve.
Summary:
- When comparing seat-mile operating costs between Narrowbody and Widebody aircraft one must use the same cabin standards.
- Doing so will show the apples to apples operating costs of the two types when operating on sectors out to the maximum practical range of the Narrowbodies.
Assessing 737 production rate interest to 70/mo
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Introduction
Sept. 27, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing hasn’t gone to a production rate of 57/mo for its 737 and studies have long been underway looking at a rate of not only
63/mo but also 70/mo, supply chain sources tell LNC.
Rate 57, up from 52, is scheduled for next July. Sixty-three has long been considered the maximum allowed for the current Renton (WA) factory, the sole location where commercial 737s are assembled.
But Boeing, in yet another step in its drive for more efficiencies, is analyzing how to push 70 airplanes a month through the same facility.
Summary
- MAX 8 remains the staple of the 737 family.
- MAX 10 helps family, stems bleeding, but A321 still outsells 737-9/10 by about 2:5:1.
- 9/10 MAX represent 17% of MAX backlog. A321neo is 34% of neo backlog.
- Boeing has more sales replacement potential than Airbus.
What costs dominate an airliner’s operation? Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 13, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we looking at the costs for a typical Mainline airline in our series about the airliner cost equation. We discussed the operating costs of Mainline airlines and how these would be affected by the operating area.
Now we calculated the different costs for a Low-Cost Carrier (LCC) operating either in the US, West Europe or Asia.
Summary:
- Fuel costs are the dominant costs for an LCC, regardless of geography.
- Airport fees and crew costs are other costs which differ between LCCs, Legacy carriers and Geographies.
Assessing A320 production rate interest in >70/mo
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Introduction
Sept. 17, 2018, © Leeham News: With the supply chain under major stress and Airbus and Boeing trying to recover from scores of “gliders” sidelined at airports without engines, each company nevertheless continues to study production rate increases for the A320 and 737 families.
Airbus publicly has said it’s looking at rate 70/mo. Boeing publicly acknowledges it’s looking at rate 63/mo.
Supply chain sources tell LNC Airbus is studying an even higher rate, into the “70s,” at early as 2020—a date that most consider out of the question.
Boeing is known to be considering a rate of 70/mo for its most profitable program.
Today, LNC looks at the A320 scenario. A future post will examine the 737.
Summary
- Airbus is scheduled to deliver more A320 members in 2019 than production capacity. Some of these may be parked backlog airplanes.
- 2020-2021 sold out at rate 60/mo, 2022-2023 nearly so.
- Rate increase to 70/mo opens opportunities for Airbus, pressure on Boeing.
What costs dominate an airliner’s operation? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 13, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we began an article series looking at the cost equation for an airliner. We discussed the different costs and how these would be affected by airline type and operating area.
Now we calculated the different costs for a Legacy airline operating either in the US, West Europe or Asia.
Summary:
- The Narrowbody operated by a legacy carrier has high Aiport costs as it frequently take-offs and lands on major airports.
- For the Widebody operation, the fuel and capital costs are higher than Navigation and Airport fees. The differences in how the US, Europe and Asia handle en route navigation fees creates a large Navigation cost difference between the geographies.
With a month to elections, Embraer bolsters backlog
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Introduction
Sept. 10, 2018, © Leeham News: With the Brazilian elections less than a month away, the outcome of the presidential race will determine whether the proposed joint venture between Embraer and Boeing will be approved.
Embraer is Brazil’s most visible and prestigious international company. The government has a “golden share,” giving it veto power over certain transactions, including the Boeing deal. Boeing will own 80% of the new JV that will be for EMB’s commercial business only. Embraer will own 20%.
The incumbent government says it will approve the joint venture; the opposition party says it will veto the deal.
Summary
Including orders, options and LOIs:
- Production slots are oversold through 2023.
- The skyline quality has some challenges.
- Only three dozen firm orders were announced at Farnborough; the balance has to be firmed up.
What costs dominate an airliner’s operation?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 6, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last month we put the question if rising fuel prices will revitalize new aircraft sales. We now continue the analysis of an airliner’s costs by looking at other parts of the cost equation.
Is fuel the dominant operational cost also in the future? What’s the difference in the different costs between a legacy carrier and an LCC? We use our aircraft cost model to gain more insights.
Summary:
- To compare costs for an airliner’s operation we must distinguish between carrier types and geographies
- While keeping the modelling relatively simple, it will be possible to single out the cost drivers beside fuel and understand their importance
Suppliers chafe at Boeing’s demand for costly certifications
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Introduction
danieljcatchpole(at)gmail(dot)com
September 3, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing’s insistence that more and more subcontractors meet stringent 
aerospace manufacturing standards risks adding cost and reducing flexibility to the supply chain, several direct and indirect Boeing suppliers tell LNC.
The aerospace giant is requiring more second and third tier suppliers have AS9100 certification. Until recent years, OEMs and their direct suppliers typically were the only companies that formally complied with AS9100.
Subcontractors were expected to conform to the standards, but did not have to formally comply with the requirements. Doing so is expensive and time consuming. Subcontractors’ work was covered by the Tier 1 suppliers’ or Boeing’s AS9100 certification.
The AS9100 standards were adopted in the late 1990s to improve and standardize quality management throughout the increasingly global aerospace industry.
Summary
- Boeing pushing more subcontractors to be AS9100 certified, according to suppliers.
- That risks adding cost and reducing flexibility in supply chain.
- Some suppliers worry it’s a prelude to more cost cutting.
The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
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Introduction
Aug. 30, 2018, © Leeham News: As time goes by, the Middle of the Market airplane appears to have become the Muddle of the Market.
Boeing can’t seem to close the business case on its Middle of the Market airplane, the New Midmarket Aircraft, or NMA.
And Airbus continues to stir the pot with talk of an A321XLR and the ever-present A321neo Plus.
Summary
- Boeing’s been talking about the MOM for six years—an extraordinarily long time.
- The aircraft evolved from a 757 replacement to a 767 replacement—something the 787 was billed to be.
- The business case remains unclear.
- The Airplane definition is still a matter of debate.
- The MOM was defined by Boeing as above the 737-9 and below the 787-8—but now there’s the 737-10 at the small end, for capacity, and renewed interest in the 787-8 at the upper end.
- Airbus is pushing the A321LR and nearing a decision whether to proceed with the A321XLR.
- Engine makers remain cool to the NMA.
- The supply chain is unenthused about the NMA because Boeing wants to capture the aftermarket and hold the intellectual property rights.
- The supply chain is in melt-down.
Other than this, everything is fine.