Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Russian-Chinese wide-body: Program responsibilities
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 29, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We will now finish our series about the Russian-Chinese wide-body with looking at who will have what role in the program.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
As we described in the initial article, “Background and outlook,” Russia and China have vastly different competencies when it comes to making a state of the art wide-body aircraft.
Russia has made airliners since the 1930s, including wide-body jets. China did not design its own jet aircraft (military or civil) until the mid-1980s. Most of the aircraft produced still today in China have their origin in Russian designs.
At the same time, we saw in the article about the market demand for the aircraft that the Chinese market is 90% of the home market. This makes for China demanding important parts of the aircraft’s production, and China has the money to invest in production facilities.
All this will influence how different parts of the project will be shared between Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC).
Summary:
- Russia and China enter the wide-body project with widely different knowledge bases.
- Russia has long time knowledge on how to develop and produce aircraft and their engines.
- China on the other hand has the market for the aircraft.
- China also know a lot about serial production and have money to invest. Read more
Russian-Chinese wide-body: Aircraft performance
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 19, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In Part 4 of the article series, we put together an assumed complete Chinese-Russian wide-body aircraft with fuselage, wing, engines, etc. It is now time to understand what kind of performance that can be expected, given the data we have from the wide-body partners, Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC).
Figure 1. Concept for new widebody airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
We will combine these data with the ones we have deduced as plausible to fill the gaps, given the time frame and technology level that UAC and COMAC intend to use.
Out will come a first estimate of what kind of performance such an aircraft can have in terms of efficiency and payload versus range capability.
Summary:
- We can use all the data we have gathered to make a first estimate of the efficiency of the Russian-Chinese wide-body.
- We also have enough information to do a first payload-range diagram and to compare that with the diagram for Boeing’s 787-9.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The aircraft, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 15, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In Part 3 of this series, we identified the type and size of wing we would have on a new Russian-Chinese wide-body. It’s now time to go through all the considerations around the engines for the aircraft.
Figure 1. Concept for new widebody airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
The aircraft would enter the market around 2025. We would have to decide on what size engine that would be needed, what engines would be available at the time and could this project motivate any new engine developments.
Summary:
- The Russian-Chinese wide-body as outlined would require engines in the size class of the Boeing 787-9/10.
- GE and Rolls-Royce have been mentioned as engine suppliers. The question would be: will they offer updated 787 engines or new designs and will Russia compete with its announced engine project for the aircraft?
Boeing’s transition to more automation
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Introduction
Robots drill holes for fasteners. Boeing photo via Google images.
Sept. 12, 2016, © Leeham News: Boeing is on a transition to improve manufacturing efficiency that will take years to complete.
Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times Sunday provided a detailed comparison between the Airbus wing production plant in Broughton, Wales, and Boeing’s 777X wing production plant in Everett (WA).
The Broughton facility is a unit of ElectroImpact of Mukilteo (WA), next to Everett’s Paine Field, where all of Boeing’s wide-body assembly is done. ElectroImpact also is a supplier to Boeing.
Boeing is also adding robotics to the 777 Classic assembly process, from wing-painting to riveting. The latter has some glitches, Gates recently reported. Boeing officials blame delays and traveled work on a three-month strike by supplier Triumph Group. The robotics on the Classic are getting their baptism in advance of becoming the principal method of assembly on the new 777X, which begins in 2018.
Finally, or perhaps not, Boeing began a transition to more automation with the assembly of the 737 MAX. A dedicated, third assembly line was created for the MAX that includes more efficiencies.
Summary
- Boeing, which began shifting to Lean Production and Six Sigma principals a decade or more ago, has made great strides.
- But integrating advanced, automated assembly into mature programs in old factories has its disadvantages to “greenfield” sites and new airplane programs.
- Opportunities to make great leaps forward come with the prospective Middle of the Market airplane and the replacement for the 737.
Russian-Chinese wide-body; The aircraft Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 08, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Having covered the possibilities of reusing parts of the Il-96 fuselage for a new Russian-Chinese wide-body, it’s now time to look at the existing IL-96 wing and how far this is from a modern design.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
The intent is not to propose that the existing wing is reused but rather to check the technology level against western designs and how big a leap it will be for the partners to make a modern high performance wing for the aircraft.
Summary:
- The IL-96 wing is roughly on the technological level of the Airbus A340-300 wing with a bit lower aspect ratio.
- The dimensions are close to what is needed for the new wide-body but sweep and aspect ratio needs to be changed for a new wing.
- A wing for a 2025 long range wide-body also need a more modern construction technology than classical aluminum alloys.
New value Guide: A look at A320, 737
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Introduction
Sept. 5, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The semi-annual update to The Guide, from appraiser Aviation Specialists of Herndon (VA), indicates Airbus and Boeing single-aisle aircraft remain hotly competitive in current market values and future residual values.
The Guide covers all in-production jets from Airbus, Boeing (including McDonnell Douglas), Bombardier and Embraer, plus their out-of-production airplanes. Passenger and freighters, including some P2F conversions, are included. BBD’s CS300 is included, although it doesn’t enter service for another few months.
The Guide is a for-purchase product.
Summary
- The A321ceo, sans sharklets, has a higher current market value than its competitor, the 737-900ER. It also has higher residual value forecast based on the higher Current Market Value starting point, but as a percentage of the starting point, the two airplanes are the same.
- The 737-800W has a better CMV and as a result a better residual value forecast. But it also has a fractionally higher RV as a percentage of the starting point.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The aircraft, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 01, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In Part 1, we concluded that the existing Il-96 fuselage cross section would be suitable for a new Russian-Chinese wide-body. This means that a lot of experience and existing designs for fuselage sections can be re-used.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
Most importantly, it means that mock-ups and cabin sections can be made early in the project to start work on new and better cabin equipment. This is an area where the partners really lag their western competitors.
We will now look at what aircraft capacities can be conceived with the existing Il-96-300 and -400 fuselages and what changes will be necessary to achieve the targeted sizes that Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) have communicated.
Summary:
- The IL-96 fuselage can be re-used for a Russian-Chinese wide-body.
- The existing IL96-300 cabin is on the small side whereas the Il-96-400 cabin is a bit larger than needed.
- The project will likely choose an intermediate size fuselage to reach the targeted 250 to 280 passenger capacity.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The aircraft
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August29, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We have now covered the capabilities of the joint venture partners for a Russian-Chinese wide-body and its possible market. Now we will look at what kind of aircraft such a cooperation can create, given technology and other constraints.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
There have been bits and pieces leaked to media from Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC).
We will look at what has been said and combine that with our knowledge of existing and future technological capabilities of the parties to make predictions for what aircraft the project can produce.
Summary:
- The Russian-Chinese wide-bodywill be made to cover the “small wide-body”market.
- Initial size will be a 250-280 passenger wide-body
- The aircraft will be a twin with engines from either GE or Rolls-Royce.
- Range with 280 passengers will be 6,500nm.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The market
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 25, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Having dissected the players behind the Russian-Chinese wide-body, it’s time to look at what market such an aircraft aims to capture.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
The project participants, Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), say they intend to make a 250-280 seat aircraft with a 6,500nm range.
We will look at what market such an aircraft can address from its Entry into Service (EIS) 2025 and over the next 10 years. We will also discuss the constrains that emerges with UAC and COMAC entering the market as new players.
Summary:
- The Russian-Chinese wide-body covers a market segment called “small wide-body” in the Global market forecast made by Airbus and Boeing.
- Based on data in these forecasts, the dominant market during the first 10 years after a 2025 Entry into Service (EIS) would be a captive Chinese market.