Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Airbus, Boeing deferrals may indicate slowing global economy
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Introduction
Boeing 737 flightline at Boeing Field: 737s awaiting delivery. Seattle Times photo via Google images.
Nov. 17, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The deferral by United Airlines of 65 Boeing 737-700s announced Tuesday caused some observers to conclude this has a negative impact on the manufacturer, but this may well overlook a larger issue.
UAL is the latest “quality” airline to announce deferrals to reschedule capital expenditures or because of not needing the aircraft now.
Softening yields, particularly among US airlines, indicate over-capacity despite load factors of 85% or more, say industry observers.
While the backlogs of Boeing and Airbus remain solid today, do the actions of several major airlines indicate the leading edge of a global economy that’s beginning to soften?
Summary
CSeries out of London City Airport, Part 2. UPDATED 2017.01.24
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
This article, which was published on the 14 November, has been updated with new information from Bombardier. The range of the CS100 from London City airport has increased due to improved performance from the aircraft and a new engine version with more thrust, the PW1535G engine.
November 14, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In the last article about operating the Bombardier (BBD) CS100 from London City Airport (LCY), we could see that the runway is about half the length of an international airport’s runways. This will have a significant impact on the Take Off Weight (TOW) that can be used when commencing a route from London City.
Figure 1. London City airport, housed in the docklands of London’s east end. Source: Wikipedia.
The manufacturers have data in their aircraft brochures that state that one should be able to takeoff with e.g. the CS100 at Maximum Take Off Weight (MTOW) from a runway which is 1,463m/4,800ft long. London City Airport’s runway is 1,508m/4950ft long, so then things should be fine?
No, the figures from the OEMs is the planning figure for actual runway used and London City airports usable take-off Runway is given as 3,934ft. In addition there is 394ft stopping distance available.
To understand how this can be used required a bit of information that we did not have at the time of writing the original article. Some of the information we used was not up to date and we did not use the strongest engine available (PW1535G) when analyzing if an operator could fly direct between New York from London City.
Bombardier came to our help and we have now been able to update the data with which to feed our performance model. This shows among other things that it’s possible to operate a direct connection between London City airport and New York, given that the number of passengers (the payload) is restricted to around 50 passengers or below.
We have revisited the two cases, SWISS European operations from London City and how would a direct operation London-New York work. You find the updated article below.
Summary:
- London City Airport puts special requirements on the aircraft serving it.
- It puts stringent requirement for takeoff and approach/landing.
- We use new information and our performance model to present what routes can be served with a CS100 from the London City Airport.
Clouds overhang Bombardier ahead of earnings call
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Introduction
Nov. 9, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier reports its 3Q2016 and nine month earnings Thursday and as the year prepares to enter its last 45 days, disappointment 
hangs over the company and the stock.
Summary
- Despite winning firm orders for the CSeries from Air Canada and Delta Air Lines early in the year, no other new orders have been announced.
- Deliveries of the CSeries will only be about half those projected, due to engine delivery delays from Pratt & Whitney.
- The $1bn investment from the federal Canadian government hasn’t been achieved, but an announcement may come as early as next week that an agreement has been reached.
- Boeing revised the design of the 737-7 to sit “right on top of” the CS300.
- Embraer (Brazil) is taking the government bailout of CSeries to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in inquiries, with the USA lending support.
CSeries out of London City Airport
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Introduction
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 07, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: When we visited Bombardier (BBD) in Montreal recently, we learned new information about how the CSeries would operate from London City Airport. This unique airport served 4.3m passengers last year and have expansion plans for more passengers up to 2030.
Bombardier’s first CSeries operator, SWISS Airlines, configured all its CS100 aircraft to operate from London City. This requires special engine selections and certification of aircraft and crews. The certification of the aircraft, CS100 is ongoing and will be finished at the turn of the year.
Figure 1. London City Airport, housed in the docklands of London’s east end. Source: Wikipedia.
We take a look at what is required for London City and how far the CS100, appropriately configured, can serve destinations from this special airport. We will use a combination of Bombardier data and our own performance model to reach the conclusions.
Summary
- London City Airport put special requirements on the aircraft serving it.
- The CSeries will be one of the most potent types allowed at London City.
- We use BBD data and our performance model to understand at what range destinations can be served.
Boeing sees wide-body market recovery from 2020
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Introduction
Nov. 3, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing may have solved its pressing problem of largely filling the production gap for the 747-8, but there is still a long way to go for the
Boeing 777X. Boeing’s view of the wide-body market has shifted. Once it thought a strong market through 2020. Now it sees recovery in demand from 2020. Boeing photo via Google images.
777.
Boeing Co. CEO Dennis Muilenburg said last week the production rate for the 777 Classic may need to come down another 1-2 per month from the previously announced 5.5/mo if sales don’t pick up.
Despite a pending order for 15 from Iran Air and the perpetual sales campaigns, Muilenburg otherwise painted a picture about wide-body demand that is anything but rosy.
Summary
- Boeing no longer sees strong demand for wide-bodies through this decade. Recovery won’t resume until the start of the next decade.
- Thus, successfully bridging the 777 Classic to the 777X becomes more challenging.
- Investors yawn at more potential 777 production rate cuts.
UPS order tops off 747-8 line through 2020
UPS Boeing 747-8F. Source: Boeing.
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Introduction
Oct. 31, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Last week’s order for 14 Boeing 747-8Fs and 14 options by UPS assures continuation of the program through 2020.
If options are exercised, and if previously announced deals with other customers finally are consummated, the program should continue at least well into the 2020 decade.
Summary
- UPS (but not Boeing) revealed the delivery timeline for the order.
- The mysterious Volga-Dnepr/AirBridgeCargo that was announced at the Paris and Farnborough air shows for up to 20 747-8Fs still hasn’t been firmed up. Only four are listed on the Boeing website this year.
- Iran Air will order four 747-8s under the reported terms of the agreement with Boeing. The US government blessed the deal recently.
- The first of three 747-8s for the presidential fleet is now scheduled for delivery in October 2017, it’s believed.
Seventeen new, derivative aircraft to see EIS through 2020
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Introduction
Delivery of the first Bombardier CS300, to AirBaltic, next week kicks off entry-into-service for 17 airplanes through 2020. Bombardier photo.
Oct. 20, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The past decade was a hive of activity as the Big Four OEMs launched new airplane programs and put the aircraft into service.
Airbus launched the A320neo, A330neo and A350 families. The A330neo is under production; the other two entered service early this year.
Boeing launched the 787 in late 2003 (outside the decade mark), rolled it out in 2007 and entered service with it in 2013. The 737 MAX was launched in 2011 and is in flight testing. The 777X was launched in 2013; components are in production.
Bombardier launched the CSeries in 2008; it entered service this year, after three years of delays.
Embraer launched the E-Jet E2 om 2013. Flight testing began this year.
New Entrants
These were supplemented by new entrants into commercial aviation: COMAC with its C919; Irkut with the MC-21; and Mitsubishi with the MRJ90. Of these, only the MRJ90 is flying. After more than two years of delays and several false starts, flight testing began in earnest this week at Moses Lake (WA) with FTA-1 (Flight Test Aircraft 1).
Development and new program launches have slowed, but the next decade is hardly going to be idle.
Summary
- Seventeen new aircraft or derivatives are scheduled to enter service through 2020.
- Five potential derivatives might see EIS through the same period.
- Three to five new or potential derivative aircraft might see EIS 2021-2025.
“Scope clauses stop aircraft development”
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 16, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: “Scope clauses stop aircraft development.”
The words are those of Rodrigo de Souza, Marketing manager of Embraer Commercial Aircraft when we spoke at the sidelines of the recent ISTAT conference in Barcelona.
De Souza made the comment when we discussed how the new E-Jet E175-E2 would fit with US scope clauses. It doesn’t.
Figure 1. Embraer’s E175-E2, which gives an 11% improvement in fuel burn (the additional 5% is from 76 seats going to 80). Source: Embraer.
The problem is the limit on Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW).
“I can understand the other restrictions of a scope clause but not the Max Take-Off Weight restriction,” de Souza said. “It doesn’t make any sense; it just stops new and more efficient aircraft getting into the market. What relevance does it have in protecting mainline pilots from the regional operators taking over routes?”
Summary:
- The MTOW part of scope clauses hits all regional manufacturers.
- Embraer is not the worst hit; their present E175 is compliant and selling well.
- Mitsubishi is worse off. Its entire backlog of 240 MRJ90 is non-compliant. And some of its major customers fly for airlines with scope clauses.
- What is the solution? Why doesn’t scope clauses adapt to modern times?
Engine industry clamoring for road back
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 13, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: The airline engine industry is like a ticking bomb. Over the years, a business practice of selling the engines under manufacturing cost and planning to recover costs and make a profit on the aftermarket developed. This goes back decades.
The practice was fostered by fierce competition over the engine contracts for aircraft which offered alternative engines. The losses of the engine sales could be made up later by selling spare parts and services at high margins.
Figure 1. Trent 7000 from Rolls-Royce. Source: Rolls-Royce.
These “jam tomorrow” practices have several implications. The engine industry is now confronted with these and wonder how it could put itself in such a bind. How to handle these and what is the way back?
Summary:
- High competition in engine sales forced ultra high discounts for the up-front engine sale.
- Aftermarket schemes was created that should recover profits over spare parts and services.
- But these maintenance practices create all sorts of problems in the used engine market.
- The engine industry now wants to return to more normal business practices. But how do they find the way back?