Dearth of wide-body order hang over Airbus, Boeing

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Introduction

July 25, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It wasn’t a good two weeks for wide-body airplanes.

AirbusNewWeek 1: Virtually no new orders for wide-bodies were announced at the Farnborough Air Show.

Airbus, responding to a leak to the Paris newspaper La Tribune, confirmed it will reduce production for the A380 from 20/yr in 2017 to 12/yr in 2018—returning the program to a loss.

Boeing firmed up an MOU announced at the Paris Air Show with Volga Dnepr for 20 747-8Fs, but wouldn’t say how many are firm orders and how many are options.

Week 2: Boeing took nearly $1.7bn in after-tax write downs for the 787 and 747-8 programs.

Boeing LogoAmerican Airlines rescheduled all of its Airbus A350 XWB orders for two years to preserve cash.

And, while not directly tied to wide-bodies per se, Delta Air Lines announced it will reduce its trans-Atlantic services for a variety of reasons. Most of these services are performed with wide-body aircraft.

Summary
  • Boeing has just 34 wide-body orders through July 19.
  • Airbus has 56 wide-body orders through June 30.
  • Farnborough orders not yet included.
  • A “bubble burst” or just part of a normal cycle?

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Interview with Rob Dewar: CSeries in service reliability

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

21July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier”s CSeries project has passed one hurdle after another during its development. The last one was the lack of Marquee customers on top of launch customer SWISS. This has now been solved with large orders from Air Canada and Delta Air Lines.

There is one hurdle remaining: what will be the aircraft’s reliability when it enters into service (EIS)?. We did the EIS interview with CSeries VP and program manager Rob Dewar only two days before the CS100 aircraft would fly its first operational sectors with Swiss last Friday. This autumn, airBaltic will put the larger CS300 into service.

Rob Dewar

Figure 1. Bombardier’s program manager for the CSeries, Rob Dewar. Source: Bombardier

Summary

  • The CSeries has been designed for in service reliability from the outset of the project.
  • Systems and solutions have been primarily chosen for the in-service maturity on other platforms.
  • Any deviation from this philosophy, like for Fly-By-Wire, Geared Turbo Fan or Electrical brakes, requires that the technology earn its place in the project by bringing unique advantages.

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Airbus’ Leahy shifts a bit on MOM aircraft

Introduction

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John Leahy, Airbus COO-Customers. Airbus photo.

July 14, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: Basking on an order for 30 A321LRs on the final day of the Farnborough Air Show, Airbus’ top salesman said the Middle of the Market sector stops at 240 passengers and it’s best served by a single-aisle aircraft.

John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer-Customers, said twin-aisle aircraft down to 240 or even 220 passengers don’t work economically against a single aisle. The A321LR (Long Range) seats a maximum of 240 passengers and it is single-aisle. Even though Airbus has a 250-seat A330-200R (Regional) and an A330-800 (7,200nm-plus range), Leahy didn’t attempt make a case that these aircraft are suitable for the MOM sector.

Summary

  • A 767-200/A310 size replacement isn’t viable.
  • Boeing’s 20-year market forecast for the mid-sized twin-aisle is for consumption for the Board of Directors.
  • The A330-200R and A330-800 aren’t good MOM aircraft.

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Bombardier sees more C Series orders this year

Our coverage of the Farnborough Air Show begins today with an interview with Fred Comer, president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft. There will be paywall and freewall posts throughout the FIA16 this week.

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Introduction

July 10, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: Winning major orders from Air

Fred Comer, president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft.

Canada and Delta Air Lines earlier this year and the entry into service of the CS100 this Friday with launch customer Swiss International Air should give Bombardier’s bet-the-company gamble a boost for more orders this year.

This is the prediction by Fred Comer, president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft.

During an interview with LNC on a media demo flight of the CS100 at the Farnborough Air Show, Comer said the smaller BBD can compete with the behemoths Airbus and Boeing for orders in the 125-150 seat sector.

Summary

Comer says:

  • Boeing’s prospective 737-7.5 still won’t be competitive.
  • The CS100 is better than the Embraer EJet-E2.
  • Embraer’s complaints of unfair competition because of Canadian government investment are unfounded.
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Boeing MAX program progresses well

Our coverage of the Farnborough Air Show begins today with an interview with Keith Leverkuhn, VP and GM of the Boeing 737 program. There will be a combination of paywall and freewall posts.

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Introduction

July 10, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Farnborough Air Show: The Boeing 737 MAX flight test

Keith Leverkuhn, VP and GM of the Boeing 737 program. AIN Online photo via Google Images.

program is going well, with the company looking for ways to add improvements to the airplane even before it enters service next year.

Improvements, which include airplane and engine components, are intended to provide dispatch reliability close to the 99.98% of the 737 NG and extend on-wing time for the reliable CFM56 engine that has powered the 737 since introduction of the 737-300 in 1984, says Keith Leverkuhn, VP and GM of the 737 program.

Summary
  • Many of the major tests are completed.
  • Boeing, CFM see opportunities to insert components into the LEAP-1B during flight testing to extend on-wing time from entry-into-service.
  • MAX 7X (or “7.5”) can be done within the “confines” of the current MAX program.
  • A larger MAX isn’t ready to go yet.

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Farnborough Air Show preview: expectations and possible surprises

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Introduction

July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co: The Farnborough Air Show begins next Monday and predictably, focus will be on orders.

With new airplanes from Airbus and Boeing past their development stages, conventional wisdom says there won’t be much new in this arena.

Don’t be so sure.

Bombardier is now on an upward trajectory, but don’t look for a big splash at #FIA16 (for those looking for this year’s Twitter handle). Embraer will have its E190-E2 at the show.

It’s Boeing’s 100th Anniversary and the company is rolling out the history for the show.

Summary

  • No new products from Airbus.
  • Boeing may have a surprise.
  • Low number of orders anticipated.

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Farnborough Air Show Preview: Orders aren’t the only thing to look for

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Introduction

John Schmidt accenture

John Schmidt of the consulting firm Accenture, wearing smart glasses for augmented reality.

June 27, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The Farnborough Air Show (FIA16) is closely watched for orders placed with Airbus, Boeing and to a much lesser extent, Bombardier and Embraer. Orders are the headline grabbers and are viewed as indicative to the health of commercial aviation going forward in the near- and mid-term.

But the consulting firm Accenture, in an interview with LNC says there are other benchmarks to watch for at FIA16.

Summary

  • A large number of new entrants into aerospace is competing for engineering talent, and it’s not the conventional suspects.
  • Execution will be of greater importance than new products.
  • The ascent of disruptive technologies; and
  • Doubling down on data deluge.

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Iran Air, Volga Dnepr deals help Boeing production gaps but don’t solve them

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Introduction

June 24, 2016, (c) Leeham Co.: Boeing’s recent deal with Iran Air for 100 737s, 777s and 747s and its indication that a Memorandum of Understanding with Volga Dnepr may be firmed up will help fill production gaps on the 777 Classic and 747-8 lines. But these transactions won’t fully fill the gaps.

Boeing declined to detail the breakdown of its order–which is still subject to US government approval–but Reuters and The Wall Street Journal obtained the detailed list.

The Volga Dnepr MOU was announced last year at the Paris Air Show for up to 20 747-8Fs. This month, news emerged that this MOU appears to be firming up for 10 plus options or commitments. This contract may be announced at the Farnborough Air Show.

Summary
  • Iran Air deal includes four 747-8s and 15 777-300ERs. Helpful, but not enough to fill the production gaps.
  • Volga’s firming of 10 orders is helpful for the 747-8, but even at a reduced production rate of six airplanes per year, a significant gap remains.

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Don’t look for defections to Boeing over Airbus delays

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Introduction

June 20, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Recent suggestions and threats that delays at Airbus for the A320neo and A350 means angry customers will flock to Boeing are naïve and grandstanding under the circumstances existing today.

The delays are measured in months, not years. For this reason, Boeing has no ability to fill the immediate needs of any competing airplane to the A320neo and A350.

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Mid-Market airplane comes before A320, 737 replacement: Pratt & Whitney exec

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Introduction

June 16, 2016, © Leeham Co.: A middle of the market airplane will come before a replacement for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, predicts Alan Epstein, vice

Alan Epstein, VP technology and environment, Pratt & Whitney.

president of technology and the environment for Pratt & Whitney.

“The challenge to the business of the narrow-bodies is the A320s and the 737s are so learned-out that Boeing and Airbus are so efficient at building those airplanes, that their inherent cost is so low, it’s extremely difficult to move into that market,” Epstein said. “Because the learning curve, you need incredibly deep pockets and you’re going to be negative for a long time.

“I think that also applies to Airbus and Boeing,” Epstein said, referring to the prospect of a new single-aisle aircraft.

Summary

  • New single aisle airplane would be a “white elephant” for 10 years.
  • Engines need to be at least 10% more efficient than today’s GTF and LEAP for a new single-aisle aircraft.
  • Middle-Market airplane likely to come first.

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