Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Wide-body production rates show mix of strength, weakness
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Introduction
May 14, 2018, © Leeham News: Wide-body production rates by Airbus and Boeing are expected to go up modestly during the next three year, with a jump in 2022—if Boeing 777X production rates head for 7/mo in late 2022, as the company projects.
The supply chain was asked last year by Boeing for a Rate Readiness Assessment that suggests a rate of 5/mo in late 2021 and rate 7/mo a year later.
Airbus is expected to boost production of the A350 to 13/mo as early as late next year. Meanwhile, the A330 production rate is coming down due to soft demand.
These rates omit impacts of the US withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Deal, in which some 100 Airbus orders, mostly wide-body, and some three-score wide-body Boeing orders disappear with the action.
Summary
- Production rate hikes driven by A350, 767, 787.
- A380, A330, 747, 777 remain weak.
- Is entire twin-aisle market continuing a down-gauging?
Scott Hamilton will discuss production rates at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference next month in Mobile (AL). Click here for more information.
Pontifications: Engine problems are getting worse
By Scott Hamilton
May 14, 2018, © Leeham News: The engine problems are getting worse.
These have moved beyond the technical issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000, GE Aviation GEnx, Pratt & Whitney GTF and CFM56.
The problems are trickling down to the maintenance, repair and overhaul shops.
LNC previously touched on the back-up in MRO shops due to the RR Trent 1000 problems, affecting even Trent 700 (Airbus A330) MRO scheduling. We’ve also reported the knock-on effect of the GTF MRO on other engine shop visits.
The mandated-inspections of CFM56 fan blades in the wake of the Southwest Airlines accident last month inundated MRO shops with unexpected visits.
Now, a European appraisal company forecasts that the “bow wave” of CFM56 shop visits will create a crisis for spare engines and parts.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft stability, Part 5
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 11, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In the last Corner, we discussed more capable autopilots used in general aviation aircraft and the Attitude and Heading Reference System (AHARS) we needed to go to more advanced autopilots.
We will now discuss the more advanced autopilots one finds in Turboprops and entry-level Business jets.
Figure 1. The Garmin G1000 Flight deck. Source: Garmin.
Bombardier refocuses the CRJ
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 10, 2018, © Leeham News: American Airlines last week ordered 30 additional regional jets. Of these, 15 were the Embraer E175. No surprise there. It’s the traveler’s favourite and the market leader among US regional jets. But American Airlines also ordered the same number of Bombardier CRJ900. Why? Isn’t it a bit dated?
There are good reasons for this order and Bombardier sees a new spring for the trusted regional. We use our performance model to understand why.
Summary:
- The CRJ900 is still a good choice for the US Scope Clause regulated regional jet market.
- Is strong economics makes it a favourite with the airline’s bean counters.
- In addition, it has the longest cabin, enabling large First-class and Premium economy sections.
- With programmed updates, it will be competitive for years to come.
Etihad faces complex issues in fleet restructuring
May 9, 2018, © Leeham News: Etihad Airways faces a complex series of decisions to make as it ponders how to restructure and stem huge losses.
Market intelligence revealed last year that the airline has been pursuing a path to dispose of five Boeing 777LRs, 22 Airbus A330s, all its A340s and only a few A320 family members.
The company also wants to cancel or defer a variety of Airbus and Boeing aircraft on order.
The 777LRs are going back to its lessor. Bids from multiple parties came in for the A330s. The A340s were simply grounded.
But over-financing, credits for new airplanes on order used against newly delivered airplanes and return conditions complicate fleet restructuring plans, ballooning costs of some moves to a point where officials are having second thoughts about how to proceed.
In January, Etihad named a new chief financial officer, Mark Powers, whose long career includes stints at Frank Lorenzo’s Continental Airlines and Northwest Airlines, where bankruptcies and financial restructurings were part of Powers’ portfolio.
Powers retired from JetBlue in 2016. He has his work cut out for him.
Pontifications: Boeing case against Airbus at WTO: appeal decision due this month
By Scott Hamilton
May 7, 2018, © Leeham News: The World Trade Organization resumes action in the European Union appeal of an adverse ruling in the Airbus illegal subsidies case filed by the US years ago, at Boeing’s behest.
This column appears at the start of the business day in Europe, before the WTO opens its hearing today. By the time the US wakes up in New York for business, today’s hearing will be over. The WTO announced today’s hearing a week ago and initially a decision on the appeal was expected, but it may not come until later this week or next.
Based on history, the WTO will probably affirm earlier decisions that Airbus benefited from illegal subsidies and hasn’t yet cured the violations (ie, repaid the subsidies). Just how sweeping this will be is a matter of speculation.
Throughout the long-running dispute, now in its 14th year, Airbus has been on the losing end of the US complaint at least on some level. The European company has won on some issues and lost on others, but the WTO found that Airbus received subsidies from EU states that violate WTO rules.
The spin from Airbus and Boeing will be along historically predictable lines.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft stability, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 4, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In the last Corner, we discussed basic autopilots used in general aviation aircraft. The key components for such a system are shown in Figure 1.
Now we will go to more advanced autopilots. We will start with describing the sensors such autopilots need.
Figure 1. The S-TEC 30 roll and pitch two-axis autopilot. Source: Genesys.
Demand supports rate 70/mo for A320, 737
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Introduction
May 3, 2018, © Leeham Co.: With the supply chain confirming last Thursday that Airbus and Boeing are exploring single-aisle production rates of 70/mo, Airbus confirmed it was doing so during its Friday earnings call.
Boeing continues to be ambiguous, saying only there is “upward pressure” on its 737 production rates.
The supply chain, notably the engine OEMs, already has heartburn over the current rate of 60/mo and 52/mo for the A320 and 737 families respectively.
Summary
- Engine makers CFM and Pratt & Whitney continue to have technical and production issues.
- Airbus and Boeing each have “gliders,” though Boeing’s is a handful vs the dozens at Airbus.
- CFM’s partner, Safran, cautions against rate 70.
Production rates will be among the topics at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference next month in Mobile (AL). Click here for more information.
India’s Spicejet big turnaround
Boeing 737-8. Boeing photo.
May 2, 2018, © Leeham News: Spicejet, the Indian low-cost airline, in its 2016-2017 Annual Report (to March 31) didn’t mince words or try to parse over its troubled history:
“Back after near shutdown. Restoring confidence. Organisational restructuring. Rising crude prices.Stiff competition. Legacy issues. We were determined to transform.”
These words are on the first page of the Annual Report.
Name another airline that is so up-front, open and candid about its past turmoil.