By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
March 12, 2015: Boeing is showing some airlines a concept it calls the 737-8ERX, a long range version of the 737-8 MAX, in response to the Airbus A321LR, Leeham News and Comment has learned. Sources within Boeing confirmed the concept but Boeing Corporate Communications did not make someone available for an interview. A spokesman said in an email, “Boeing studies many advanced concepts, innovations and technology. However, just because Boeing studies a particular concept or technology does not necessarily mean that we will be introducing that airplane or concept in the near future. Boeing makes decisions based on market and customer demand.”
Figure 1. The Boeing 737-8ERX concept. Boeing photo, modified by Leeham Co., based on information from Market Intelligence. Click on image to enlarge.
In our article series around A321LR we concluded that Boeings 737 MAX 9 was not a good base from which to launch a long range 737, it could not be stretched in take off weight due to rotation limitations. Better would be to upgrade the take-off weight of MAX 8 for longer range, it can carry the extra fuel tanks needed and is not rotation limited in the same way.
As happened with the A321neoLR (we pointed to the possibility of the concept and Airbus was indeed working on it) Boeing now shows selected airlines a higher gross weight 737 MAX 8, Figure 1. In contrast to Airbus, which beefed up the A321neo to form the A321LR, Boeing is apparently using a concept they developed for the Navy 737 derivative, P8 Poseidon. They grab in their LEGO box of 737 components to form the 737-8ERX with minimal additional development.
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Pontifications: Jumping on the MOM bandwagon
By Scott Hamilton
March 15, 2015: There was little “real” news coming out of ISTAT this year, which is probably why the topics of the “757 replacement” and the 200-250 seat, 4,500 mile twin-aisle airplane prospect drew so much attention.
Sitting there in the audience, I could not help but have a feeling of “been there, done that.” Leeham News and Comment has been closely examining these two topics since we exclusively revealed October 21 last year that Airbus was showing the long-range A321 concept to airlines. We dubbed the concept the A321neoLR. Airbus formally launched the program in January and shortened the name to the A321LR.
Between our reveal and the launch, LNC’s economic guru, aerodynamic engineer Bjorn Fehrm, took a very close analysis of the A321LR vs the Boeing 757 and the Boeing 737-9. He analyzed the prospect of a long-range Boeing 737-8. He also looked at the prospect of re-starting the 757 in the form of a re-engined 757 Max.
We concluded: Read more
34 Comments
Posted on March 15, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, ISTAT, Leeham News and Comment
225/5000 Sector, 737 MAX, 737 MAX 10, 737 replacement, 737-8, 737-8ERX, 737-9, 757, 757 MAX, 757 replacement, 757-200W, 787, 787 Lite, 7X7, 8X8, A321LR, A321neoLR, Air Lease Corp., Airbus, Boeing, Boeing 7X7, Boeing 8X8, ISTAT, Jim McNerney, Middle of Market airplane, MOM, Randy Tinseth, Steve Udvar-Hazy
Pontifications: From the sidelines of the ISTAT conference, Notes #2
March 13, 2015: More Notes from the sidelines at the ISTAT conference this week in Phoenix.
By Scott Hamilton
Boeing 777 production rates and advancing schedule
Randy Tinseth, Boeing VP-Marketing, predictably stuck to Boeing messaging Monday at the ISTAT conference when I asked him about the change in tone I described in my post Monday morning about the 777 Classic production rate to the entry-into-service of the 777X.
Waving a copy of my post in the Q&A session of Tinseth’s market update and saying I had transcripts of every Boeing earnings call and investors presentation in which the “bridge” question was posed since the 777X program was launched, I cited Boeing CFO Greg Smith’s response to orders in the March 5 JP Morgan investors’ day and asked Tinseth about it.
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57 Comments
Posted on March 13, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, ISTAT, Mitsubishi
777 Classic, 777X, 787, Boeing, Bombardier, CRJ, CSeries, E-Jet E2, EJet, Embraer, ISTAT, Japan Air Lines, John Slattery, Mitsubishi, MRJ90, Randy Tinseth, Ross Mitchell
Boeing showing 737-8ERX concept in response to A321LR
By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
March 12, 2015: Boeing is showing some airlines a concept it calls the 737-8ERX, a long range version of the 737-8 MAX, in response to the Airbus A321LR, Leeham News and Comment has learned. Sources within Boeing confirmed the concept but Boeing Corporate Communications did not make someone available for an interview. A spokesman said in an email, “Boeing studies many advanced concepts, innovations and technology. However, just because Boeing studies a particular concept or technology does not necessarily mean that we will be introducing that airplane or concept in the near future. Boeing makes decisions based on market and customer demand.”
Figure 1. The Boeing 737-8ERX concept. Boeing photo, modified by Leeham Co., based on information from Market Intelligence. Click on image to enlarge.
In our article series around A321LR we concluded that Boeings 737 MAX 9 was not a good base from which to launch a long range 737, it could not be stretched in take off weight due to rotation limitations. Better would be to upgrade the take-off weight of MAX 8 for longer range, it can carry the extra fuel tanks needed and is not rotation limited in the same way.
As happened with the A321neoLR (we pointed to the possibility of the concept and Airbus was indeed working on it) Boeing now shows selected airlines a higher gross weight 737 MAX 8, Figure 1. In contrast to Airbus, which beefed up the A321neo to form the A321LR, Boeing is apparently using a concept they developed for the Navy 737 derivative, P8 Poseidon. They grab in their LEGO box of 737 components to form the 737-8ERX with minimal additional development.
Read more
45 Comments
Posted on March 12, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing
737-8, 737-8ERX, 737-9, 757, A321LR, Airbus, Boeing, Norwegian Air Shuttle, United Airlines
Redefining the 757 replacement: Requirement for the 225/5000 Sector, Part 5.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
11 March 2015, c. Leeham Co: After having analyzed the different alternatives which would be available to Boeing for its Middle Of the Market, MOM, studies and having singled out the most competitive configurations, we will now add revenue to the equation. In the work to establish Cash and Direct Operating Costs for the aircraft, we saw which variant had the best cost for a certain capacity and utilization. We could not see which aircraft would be the most profitable however; this requires that we bring in the revenue side.
Revenue management analysis of different aircraft types on an airlines network is a science in it selves. Sophisticated fare class strategies with connected marketing activities makes such studies elaborate and beyond the scope of our analysis. Our primary goal is to understand the difference in operational efficiency of a single versus dual aisle aircraft with the same seating capacity. For this, a simpler average margin concept will work that shows us the effects of single versus dual aisle for aircraft margins in the MOM segment.
Summary
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Posted on March 11, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Premium, United Airlines
737 MAX 9, 737-8, 737/757 replacement, 757-200W, 787-8, A321LR, Airbus, Boeing, Boeing NSA, NLT, United Airlines
ISTAT: Industry stability as good as this CEO has ever seen it
Despite the constant fears of an impending order bubble, the CEO of one of the world’s largest leasing companies says the airline industry’s stability is as good as he’s ever seen it in his career.
Jeff Knittel, president of CIT Transportation, to which CIT Aerospace reports, told a press briefing Tuesday at the ISTAT conference that US network carriers are stronger than they have ever been, low cost carriers (LCCs) are maturing and ultra low cost carriers (ULCCs) are changing the dynamics of business. Read more
2 Comments
Posted on March 11, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, ISTAT
Airbus, Boeing, CIT Aerospace, Damon D'Agostino, Jeff Knittel
ISTAT: Bombardier vs Embraer: unsurprisingly, differing views
March 9, 2015: Ross Mitchell, vice president of business development, Bombardier, and John Slattery, chief commercial officer for Embraer, squared off today at the ISTAT conference. Below is a paraphrased summary of their panel discussion.
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4 Comments
Posted on March 9, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, ISTAT
Bombardier, CSeries, E-Jet, E-Jet E2, Embraer, ISTAT, John Slattery, KC-390, Q400, Ross Mitchell
ISTAT: John Leahy: No bubble for at least the next five years
Marhc 9, 2015: John Leahy, chief operating officer,customer of Airbus, presented at ISTAT. The following is a running paraphrased summary.
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14 Comments
Posted on March 9, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, ISTAT
757, A321, A321LR, A380, A380neo, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, ISTAT, John Leahy
Notes #1 from ISTAT 2015
Snippets heard in the hallways of the 2015 ISTAT annual meeting in Phoenix:
12 Comments
Posted on March 9, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Bombardier, CSeries, Rolls-Royce
A380, Advance engine, Airbus, Bombardier, CSeries, Emirates Airline, Engine Alliance, GP7200, ISTAT, Rolls-Royce, Swiss Airlines, Tim Clark
Redefining the 757 replacement: Requirement for the 225/5000 Sector, Part 4.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required
Introduction
08 March 2015, c. Leeham Co: In the third part of the article series around the need for a more capable solution for 180-240 seats and 5,000 nautical miles, we compared different clean sheet single and dual aisle aircraft to the Airbus A321LR and Boeing’s 787-8, the two aircraft that form the border to the segment.
We could see that a single aisle aircraft started to have trouble with weight at around 220 passengers using our normalized seating rule set. This would with normal OEM seating rules be around 230-240 passengers. At the same time the dual aisle aircraft becomes stronger the more seats one assumes. The reason is their thicker fuselage, Figure 1, lends itself better to aircraft which passes 50 meters/160 feet in length.
Figure 1. Cross sections for our studied clean sheet designs; NSA6 (New Single Aisle 6 abreast), NLT6 (New Light Twin 6 ab.) and NLT7. Source: Leeham Co.
Their advantages in boarding and deplaning then starts to outweigh their disadvantages in weight and drag. This trend is explored further in this part where we add Cash Operating Cost, COC and Direct Operating Cost, DOC, to the analysis.
Summary
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Posted on March 8, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Boeing, Future aircraft, Premium
757, 757 replacement, 787-8, A320NEO, A321LR, A322, Airbus, Boeing, Boeing NSA, Middle of Market, Middle of Market airplane, MOM, NLT, NLT6, NLT7, Norwegian Air Shuttle
Pontifications: Boeing cracks open door to 777 production rate cuts (or not)
By Scott Hamilton
March 8, 2015: Boeing cracked open the door March 5 to a production rate reduction on the 777 Classic, the first time since launching the 777X in 2013 that officials have publicly deviated from their insistence the current rate of 8.3/mo can be maintained to entry-into-service of the 777X.
At least that’s how I see it. Boeing sees it differently. Boeing says nothing has changed in its messaging.
In an appearance at the JP Morgan Transportation Conference, Greg Smith, EVP of Business Development and Strategy and Chief Financial Officer of The Boeing Co., Smith appeared to back away from the Boeing messaging to-date that has been all (to paraphrase) “We’re confident we’ll bridge the gap,” “We have three years of backlog and six years to bridge the gap”, “We’re confident we’ll maintain production at the current level,” etc, etc.
At least that’s how an aerospace analyst for a New York firm expressed it when he called me. After listening to the event, I agree with the analyst.
In the recorded playback of the JP Morgan event, here’s the report of Smith’s comments starting at 9:36 into the presentation.
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10 Comments
Posted on March 8, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing
777 Classic, 777X, Boeing, Greg Smith, Jim McNerney, JP Morgan
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