Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
2019 Outlook: COMAC’s slow but steady progress
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Introduction
Jan. 4, 2019, © Leeham News: This is not the year where China’s COMAC will have break-out progress for the C919, its challenge to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737.
Flight testing is slow and entry into service (EIS) is now targeted for 2021—a slip of five years from the original schedule.
The C919 launch-to-EIS is approaching the eight years record of the ARJ21.
But these delays don’t mean COMAC isn’t making progress.
Summary
- Boeing’s JV with COMAC for a 737 completion center opened last month.
- Despite delays, the C919 progresses.
- Progress continues on the JV with Russia for the CR929.
KKR invests $1bn in small lessor
Jan. 3, 2019, © Leeham News: The US private equity fund KKR agreed to invest $1bn in boutique lessor Altavair, a deal that includes taking a 50% stake in the company.
KKR may supplement the investment with additional commitments, the companies said.
LNC’s Top 10 stories in 2018
Jan. 2, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing dominated the Top 10 news stories last year, as measured by views.
Displacing Airbus at Hawaiian Airlines, which ordered the 787-9 and canceled the A330-800, led the readership.
Boeing’s flip of the Hawaiian Airlines order for the A330-800 to the 787-9 was the most read story of 2018. Photo: Hawaiian Airlines.
Airbus’ launch of the A350-900ULR came in second.
Here are the Top 10 stories on Leeham News for 2018: Read more
2019 Outlook: A pivotal year for Embraer
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Introduction
Embraer E190 2.
Dec. 28, 2018, © Leeham News: If it cannot be said that 2019 will be a pivotal year for Boeing, this is not the case from Embraer.
It will indeed be a pivotal year.
Embraer Commercial Aviation is to become part of a new joint venture with Boeing.
This leaves some of Embraer’s military and all of its business aviation business remaining.
EMB’s KC-390 program will move to a second joint venture in which EMB owns 51% and Boeing owns 49%.
Summary
- Year-to-date Embraer sales, financials were below expectations.
- E175-E2 has no firm orders and the conditional sale has been removed from the backlog due to international accounting standards.
- Customer service follows Embraer Commercial Aviation.
2019 Outlook: Boeing’s decision on NMA is the headline to watch
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Introduction
Dec. 21, 2018, © Leeham News: It is a stretch to say 2019 is a pivotal year for Boeing.
There would have to be events of tsunami proportions to be pivotal for a company with revenues of more than $90bn.
But there is no doubt 2019 will be a very important year for Boeing.
Summary
- The headline to watch will be the widely anticipated launch of the New Midmarket Aircraft, also called the 797.
- The 777X begins flight testing next year. Sales are stalled for the newest airplane of the Boeing family.
- The proposed new joint venture between Boeing and Embraer is expected to be consummated by the end of the year.
2019 Outlook: leaving Airbus’ troubled year behind
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
December 19, 2018, © Leeham News.: Next year is a time when Airbus hopes to leave its troubled 2018 behind.
But 2018 was also when the company wanted to leave the troubles of 2017 behind it.
Not only did 2018 not improve. In a number of ways it turned worse.
Engineless A320neos at Toulouse Airport. Airbus hopes this is a thing of the past. Photo via Google images.
Turmoil in the management ranks brought back memories of the politically infested Airbus of 20 years ago. And there were other issues.
Production problems with the A320 continued. The A330neo was further delayed and the A380 order from Emirates to save the program took forever to materialize. The negotiations to fix the contracts for A400M couldn’t be brought to a close.
There were two bright lights in the year. The A350 was now out of its cabin supplier problems and delivering aircraft to plan. The other was the gift from Boeing’s suing Bombardier and its CSeries the year before. The top modern Bombardier CS100/300 became Airbus A220 on the first of July. Price tag; $1 for 50.01% of the program.
Summary
- Changes in executives are almost over.
- Pratt & Whitney’s engine delivery delays are caught up and CFM’s delays are diminishing.
- Production ramp ups are peaking (for now) and deliveries should be at a record rate next year.
- Airbus is waiting for Boeing to decide whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft.
Lion Air threatens to cancel MAX order; no impact to Boeing seen
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Introduction
Dec. 17, 2018, © Leeham News: Lion Air’s co-founder is threatening to cancel an order for more than 200 Boeing 737 MAXes following what he says is Boeing’s 
blaming the airline for the Oct. 29 crash of Flight 610.
All 189 people aboard the three month old 737-8 died when the plane plunged into the Java Sea 11 minutes after take-off from Jakarta.
Calling a Boeing statement issued Nov. 27 a “betrayal,” co-founder Rusdi Kirana Dec. 3 threatened to cancel to big Boeing order. He amplified his remarks Dec. 11.
Summary
- Lion Air has 229 MAXes scheduled for delivery between 2019-2026.
- The carrier has 148 A320neos scheduled for delivery, believed intended for its leasing company.
- Deliveries mostly overlap.
- Another source of A320neos is apparently available.
- Analysis of impact to Boeing
Pontifications: Airbus teams with Georgia Tech for MBSE role
- See LNC’s holiday publication schedule at the end of this column.
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 17, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus has joined with Georgia Institute of Technology to open a technical center for Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) for Overall Aircraft Design (OAD).
The Georgia Tech Center opened in October.
It’s an expansion of the Airbus footprint in the growing US Southeast aerospace footprint.
It’s also a step in transforming Airbus’ design technology, an effort that’s been underway in cooperation with European universities and institutes. Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Pitch stability, Part 4
December 14, 2018, ©.Leeham News: Last week we introduced a horizontal stabilizer to make our DC-9 like aircraft stable in pitch. We got a pitch moment curve which was forcing the nose down of the aircraft if there was an increase in Angle of Attack (AoA) of the aircraft. Should the angle of attack decrease from a trimmed position, the aircraft would put the nose up to correct the disturbance. The aircraft is stable in pitch.
Now we take a closer look at how such a horizontal stabilizer is made and why.
Figure 1. The pitch moment coefficient curve of an earlyDC-9 candidate. Source: Stanford University.
Read more
Has the A380 worse economics than the 777-9 or A350-1000?
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Introduction
December 13, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we checked if the claims in media the Airbus A380 is more expensive to operate than a Boeing 777-300ER has merit. As so often, media compared apples with oranges.
Comparing like-for-like, the A380 does just fine if you configure it with equal comfort cabins. And if you can fill it. Now we compare the A380 economics to more modern alternatives, Airbus’ A350-1000 and Boeing’s 777-9.
Summary:
- Configured to equal comfort standards the A380 is surprisingly competitive on seat mile costs to the A350-1000 and 777-9.
- We then lowered the A380 seat count from Airbus’ latest proposals, to find the cross-over point. It’s pretty close to Emirates two-class A380s.