Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus forecasts that almost three times more aircraft needs to be produced by year 2044 June 12, 2025
- Paris Air Show preview: Don’t look for big news June 11, 2025
- P&W: the troubled GTF will be the best engine for the next single-aisle airplane June 11, 2025
- Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now June 9, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
Paris Air Show Preview
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Introduction
May 22, 2017, © Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show begins June 17, and few in the industry expect much in the way of orders this year.
The order cycle is on the downward side of the bell curve. Sustaining the 2,000, 3,000 or nearly 4,000 gross orders announced 2011-2013 simply couldn’t be achieved. The “order bubble” had to break, and it did. Last year, Airbus and Boeing reported some 1,400 orders between them.
Airbus guides that it will tough to achieve a 1:1 book:bill this year. Boeing is running about 1:1 book:bill so far but it also guides conservatively. Still, LNC thinks Boeing might surprise this year–and some of this could be at the Paris Air Show.
Leeham Co.’s new publication, Commercial Aviation Report, provides a Focus Report on the Air Show. This encompasses the expectations for Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, COMAC, Irkut, Mitsubishi, CFM, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce into one easy-to-read package.
The pre-airshow press briefings by the OEMs begin next week. We don’t expect any earth-shattering news from these and we wanted to get our views out ahead of these briefings.
Summary
- Boeing wants to launch the 737-10 MAX at the Paris Air Show. This could spur a group of orders that would give Boeing a rare win in the headlines vs Airbus on the latter’s home ground.
- Mitsubishi plans to have its MRJ90 at the Air Show. One airplane entered the paint shop for ANA colors–this might be the one making the appearance.
- Embraer expects to have its KC-390 there. Will the E195-E2 also make an appearance?
Pontifications: The pricing jigsaw puzzle
By Scott Hamilton
May 22, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The prices airlines and lessors pay for their airplane purchases have long been of intense interest to just about everybody associated with the airline industry.
The manufacturers want to know what their competitors are selling the planes for.
The airlines want to know what their competitors pay for their airplanes. The same is true for lessors and their competitors.
(Airlines are less interested in what the lessors pay; they are only interested in what they must pay the lessors to lease the airplanes, and aren’t really concerned about the lessors’ costs.)
Appraisers want to know the prices of new aircraft, and prices on the secondary market, to have a basis for predicting base and current market values today and 25 years in the future.
The credit rating agencies want to know that values of the airplanes to rate financing deals.
Is Bombardier a stalking horse in Boeing complaint?
Analysis
May 17, 2017 © Leeham Co.: Is Boeing’s complaint against Bombardier over the Delta
Delta Air Lines CS100.
Air Lines CSeries deal merely a stalking horse for future action against Airbus?
This is the theory of one person LNC spoke with on the sidelines Tuesday at the annual Airfinance Journal Conference in New York.
Testimony in the Bombardier case begins this week.
Air industry uncertain about Trump policies
Adam Pilarski
May 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The US airline industry remains uncertain where the Trump Administration is going, said Adam Pilarski, chief economist of Avitas Aviation, at the annual Airfinance Journal conference in New York.
“There are huge differences between candidate Trump and President Trump,” he said. China was not declared a currency manipulator. There is no border wall. The US embassy has not been moved to Jerusalem. Trump now supports ExIm Bank and NATO.
“Let’s not get too involved in what he said, because he didn’t mean it,” said Pilarski.
Interest seen in Boeing’s “797,” says lessor
May 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Air Lease Corp., one of the world’s leading lessors, sees
John Plueger, CEO of Air Lease Corp.
a “quite a bit” of interest from its customers in the prospective Boeing Middle of the Market aircraft, says its CEO, John Plueger.
Speaking at the Airfinance Journal conference in New York today, Plueger acknowledged with some push from moderator Mark Streeter of JP Morgan that pricing needs to be in today’s dollars in the $70m-$75m range.
Special Report: Focus on the Boeing 737-10
Subscription Required
May 15, 2017: © Leeham Co.: It’s coming down to crunch time for Boeing to launch the 737-10 MAX.
There was the “soft launch” of the airplane at the March 2017 ISTAT conference in San Diego.
The Paris Air Show is around the corner. It’s next month, and Boeing officials want to launch the program there.
In a Special Report, Leeham Co. LLC is re-launching the magazine that was the foundation of the creation of Leeham Co. and Leeham News and Comment. The magazine, Commercial Aviation Report, or CAR for short, takes an in-depth look at the 737-10, its genesis and its competitive position against the Airbus A321neo.
Pontifications: Emirates profits drop 83%, MC-21 and more news last week
By Scott Hamilton
May 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It was a busy news week last week.
- Emirates Airline headlined its 29th consecutive year of profits, but downplayed an 83% decline.
- The Irkut MC-21 moved to the tarmac, an indication first flight may be coming shortly.
- Multiple media reports indicate that electronics flight ban from the Middle East may be extended in part to all of Europe.
- Boeing suspended test flights on the 737 MAX after CFM discovered some quality issues in some LEAP 1B engines.
Let’s look at these events.
Bjorn’s Corner: Keeping airliners operational. Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 12, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Last week we explained how maintenance philosophies were developed for airliners, from Maintenance Steering Group one (MSG-1), through to Maintenance Steering Group 3 (MSG-3), today’s standard.
The way in which today’s complex systems shall be analyzed should be top down instead of bottom up. And safety concerns should be separated from economical considerations.
Figure 1. The first modern maintenance program was formed around the Boeing 747. Source: Wikipedia.
Now we will go through what this means in practice. We will develop a maintenance plan for a new aircraft, according to the latest standards.
But first, the structure of the work we have in front of us.
ISTAT Asia 2017: The fight for the lead
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 11, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus and Boeing had their customary presentation match at the second day of the ISTAT (International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading) conference in Hong Kong. Each OEM stuck to a theme throughout their presentations.
Boeing’s was “market leader.” As the one that delivered the most aircraft during 2016, Boeing had the right to the claim. Airbus countered with “value protection leader.” The neo success saves airlines from having to change aircraft families. Read more
Welcome back, Commercial Aviation Report
May 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Welcome back, Commercial Aviation Report.
Commercial Aviation Report, or CAR for short, was launched Oct. 1, 1989, by Scott Hamilton, Chris Kjelgaard and Bernard Tilbury. The bi-weekly newsletter evolved into a magazine and later the creation of a monthly, Commercial Aviation Value Report.
It’s conference unit, Commercial Aviation Events, became one of the top aviation conference organizers. CAE created the first commercial aviation conference in Eastern Europe, after the fall of the Iron Curtain; and the first commercial aviation conference in China.
Read more
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Posted on May 15, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
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