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July 29, 2019, © Leeham News: The 737 MAX crisis overshadows everything else right now at Boeing.
This includes forward orders, weak customers and production gaps on the 787 line, which right now is the cash flow cow at Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
Executives only briefly, and obliquely, touched on the 787 during the 2Q2019 earnings call last Wednesday.
This prompted LNA to examine the details of the backlog and production rates. The 787 is current being produced at a rate of 14/mo.
There are clear signs of challenges, both near- and medium-term for the 787.
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July 15, 2019, © Leeham News: There are 14 new and derivative aircraft scheduled for entry into service (EIS) through 2027. This rises to 16 if Boeing launches the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA).
But there are plenty of uncertainties around precise EIS hanging over some of these.
LNA sees the Boeing 777X EIS slipping into early 2021. China’s C919 is now slated for a 2021 EIS, but development has been tricky and delays have been common. Russia’s MC-21 flight testing has been slow and international sanctions hang over this aircraft.
Mitsubishi’s MRJ90, now called the M90, is slated to enter service next year. It, too, has been plagued by delays. The redesigned MRJ70, the M100, moves from a 2021 EIS to a planned 2023 EIS—but given the MRJ90’s history of delays, the company has to persuade the industry no more slippages are likely.
Here is a rundown by year and aircraft of the EIS dates.
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Dec. 21, 2018, © Leeham News: It is a stretch to say 2019 is a pivotal year for Boeing.
There would have to be events of tsunami proportions to be pivotal for a company with revenues of more than $90bn.
But there is no doubt 2019 will be a very important year for Boeing.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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November 1, 2018, © Leeham News.: Last week we looked at how a Boeing NMA would function as a medium range airliner in the Asia-Pacific.
We now continue with flying the two aircraft variants from Middle East locations, exploring how large an area in Asia, Europe and Africa the aircraft would cover.
Summary:
Oct. 23, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing has been confident it has bottomed out the production rate of the 777 line, successfully bridging between the Classic and the X models.
CEO Dennis Muilenburg nevertheless typically couches this confidence with “with still have some work to do.”
But during LNC’s trip last week to New York, sources said this bridge may be moving to the right.
Oct. 22, 2018, © Leeham News: I was in New York City last week for a series of meetings. Here’s what “the street” is talking about. I make no judgment calls about whether the thoughts are on target or not. Read more
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June 18, 2018, © Leeham News: The era of the Very Large Aircraft appears over.
The Boeing 747 passenger airliner, while nominally still offered for sale, is in reality dead.
The Airbus A380 limps along in what may prove to be a vain hope that airport congestion will spur sales next decade.
The next level down, however, doesn’t appear very strong.
Sales of the Airbus A350-1000 stalled at 200 or less for years.
Sales of the Boeing 777X likewise stalled following program launch in 2013-2014. Although the 777X has twice as many orders as the A350-1000, fully 72% of them come from three customers, one of which is in serious financial trouble and may cancel or defer some or all its orders.
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 23, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: Jet Airways is India’s second-largest airline after IndiGo and India’s largest Full-Service carrier, transporting 4 million passengers more than AIr India during 2017.
After years of ups and downs, the carrier has re-established growth and profitability over the last year’s operation.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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May 17, 2018, © Leeham News: The recent agreement between the US and the Gulf carriers limits the expansion of the carriers on the US market. As the premier long-range destination area from the Gulf is the US market, this will influence the lift needed by the three.
All three carriers, Emirates, Qatar Airways (Qatar) and Etihad, have decided on the 777-9 as the mainstay for their long-haul needs. With the change, the question arises, will Qatar increase the buy of the A350-1000 instead of taking the 777-9 and will any of the others reconsider?
To understand what’s involved we compare the capacity and the costs of the 777-9 and A350-1000. How large is the difference? Is the A350 the better choice if the extreme long-haul capacity needs decline?